How Mt Kenya is arm-twisting Raila to win running mate ticket
ODM leader Raila Odinga (left) and Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua during a political rally.
Political pundits are unanimous that after exploring all variables at play and without being influenced by any form of bias, Mr Odinga's running mate will be fished out of Mt Kenya or lower Eastern.
But Mt Kenya is silently boxing Mr Odinga into a corner to 'arm-twist' him into picking a running mate from the region and in particular, former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth or Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua.
The agitation is said to be behind Mt Kenya Jubilee aspirants’ refusal to own Mr Odinga in their campaigns, where they are not accommodating him on their billboards or in political rallies until he guarantees the area the running mate slot.
While Jubilee vice-chairman David Murathe has declared that "Mr Odinga will win the August 9 presidential race against United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Dr William Ruto with or without Mt Kenya votes," some of his colleagues insist "that can only be said publicly by someone who is under the influence of political naivety".
With his two-time (2013 and 2017) running mate Kalonzo Musyoka already in Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Alliance and spiritedly demanding the running mate slot alongside Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua, experts now say Mr Odinga's decision on the critical issue will be about numbers.
Mr Kalonzo, Mr Kenneth and Ms Karua have unsuccessfully contested the presidency, with their performances now used to measure their chances of bagging the deputy presidency.
“Mr Kalonzo bagged 879,903 votes in the 2007 presidential election and has deputised Mr Odinga to come in nearly 50/50 as runners-up in 2013 and 2017. To an objective analyst, Mr Kalonzo is an asset,” said Mt Kenya region political analyst Prof Ngugi Njoroge.
Prof Njoroge added that Mr Kenneth scored 72,000 votes while Ms Karua garnered 43,000 in their 2013 presidential contest.
The big issue in Mr Odinga’s contest strategy, says political analyst Mr Herman Manyora, will be about amassing numbers to win while playing it safe in his alliance with President Uhuru Kenyatta.
While Mr Odinga is partly banking on President Kenyatta’s input for success in this contest, Mr Manyora said, as a seasoned and calculating politician, he also knows that any support that does not shore up his numbers is useless.
He said it is upon Mr Odinga to scientifically analyse voting patterns and pick his running mate from a region that boosts his numbers knowing full well anything short of 50 percent plus one is a waste.
Tribal gangs
Lawyer Patrick Loch Otieno (PLO) Lumumba says it is unfortunate that the August 9 political contest has refused to detach itself from tribal gangs in the quest to assemble winning numbers.
“Unfortunate as it may sound, the biggest consideration for bagging the deputy presidency is latched inside tribal cocoons. He/she who brings his/her tribe to the table in bigger numbers bags it,” he said.
“It is all about communities, and regardless of how passionate you are to his cause, if you do not bring in the numbers, you will be jettisoned…”
In Mr Odinga’s case, the President’s men are tabling two hard-stance arguments seeking to win the running mate position – that Azimio is an Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Jubilee Party outfit whose presidential ticket Mr Odinga has won, and that the Central region has the numbers.
Mr Kenneth says that because the principals in Azimio la Umoja are the President and Mr Odinga, that “leaves very little room for negotiations as it appears automatic on where the running mate belongs”.
Though Mr Kenneth cryptically says “big rivers do not drain into tributaries hence Mt Kenya numbers should be factored in the picking of running mate”, he is quick to add that the “prerogative to choose the Deputy President is Mr Odinga’s”.
Mr Kenneth adds that Mt Kenya is not eyeing the seat as a condition for supporting Mr Odinga’s presidential bid “but our people are closely following what we are up to”.
While Mr Kenneth appears to be campaigning hard on the ground for the seat, longtime administrator Joseph Kaguthi says “Mt Kenya is pursuing another route that has more value and excitement”.
He says that “a conglomerate of political, social and economic actors had been dispatched by Mt Kenya’s who’s who to go after Ms Karua and win her over to the Azimio la Umoja side”.
Mr Kaguthi told Nation.Africa that State House and its advisers were deeply involved “since Ms Karua brings in freshness, compatibility and acceptance in Mr Odinga’s presidential bid”.
He said “it is not for idle ends that Ms Karua is in Azimio la Umoja today since she is a force and she stands the best bet to heal the political rifts that have persisted between Mr Odinga’s community and Mt Kenya”.
However, Ms Karua said the issue of who bags the running mate slot is not a question to be asked around casually.
“The best-placed people to answer that question are those contesting the presidency. I am not contesting the presidency…all those who have declared are the ones to tell us who will be their running mates,” she said.
Mt Kenya MCA caucus chairman Charles Mwangi protested that "we should desist from speaking out of turn and instead concentrate on helping the President capture our space in Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Alliance that befits our interests".
He urges Mr Murathe and company who are not interested in the deputy presidency "to simply shut up and realise Mt Kenya is an interested party controlling shares in the next government and we should not be treated to demeaning theatrics".
Mr Mwangi said Mt Kenya voters matter and it is delusional to think that its space in Azimio can be wished away as the acceptability of Mr Odinga’s candidacy in the region will be determined by the actual gain won before votes are cast on August 9. He said Mr Odinga will lose Mt Kenya if he does not pick a running mate from the region.
Former Maragua MP Elias Mbau told Nation.Africa that "it will be inconceivable for President Kenyatta to assume that Mt Kenya’s long-term interests can be ignored from the proximity of the next government".
He said that was the foundational political scripture contained in a memorandum presented to Mr Odinga at the Ihura Stadium in Murang'a County on January 29.
"The thrust of our message was that in Mr Odinga's government we must be represented by a shareholding commensurate with our numbers and other attached dynamics,” Mr Mbau said.
“We were very clear that in his government we desire to see one of us capable of playing the role of a President in waiting. That person, to most of us, is Mr Kenneth."
Jubilee secretary-general Jeremiah Kioni insists that "the next government is already designed and has Mr Odinga as the President with the rest of his team being Kenyans of goodwill".
He said the issue of who gets what, when and how is being addressed by the President and Mr Odinga.
He insists that the President is the one walking into Azimio carrying all the aspirations of Mt Kenya and its share of the pie.
Mr Odinga's strategist, Prof Makau Mutua, is also apprehensive of the running mate politics, saying loyalty is key in scouting for someone with the numbers and an understanding of the dynamics of that office.
Could that person be Mr Kalonzo? Mr Mwangi asserts that "it is neither here nor there about Kalonzo in (the) Azimio la Umoja matrix."
He said "Kalonzo should be promised the National Assembly Speaker and the deputy presidency (should) go to Mr Kenneth."
Mr Kenneth downplayed the emerging cracks, saying "Mt Kenya is in safe hands in President Kenyatta's statesmanship status [after he leaves] State House".
But he offered: "What must remain prominent is the fact that Azimio foundations are the Jubilee and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) parties."
He said all other late entrants into the bandwagon should realise they are third legs of fourth legs as the first two were already in place.
Power-sharing formula
Mr Kenneth's diehard supporter, Gatanga MP Nduati Ngugi, said "we are not inclined to give the President and Mr Odinga any conditions but some issues are statements of fact and logic". He said Mt Kenya is the best placed to produce the Azimio running mate in the spirit of ODM bagging the presidential candidate.
Mr Kenneth said these issues will be resolved and that "by the time rubber meets the tarmac, the Mt Kenya region will be happy [about] the power-sharing formula in the context of national unity and inclusivity of the leadership positions on offer".
Mr Kioni said President Kenyatta’s legacy in Mt Kenya is critically important, and that residents “must enjoy resources and power allocations commensurate” with their numbers.
“We want development projects that [match] our taxation input. We want our diversity in settling and doing business across the country respected," he said.
Mr Mwangi noted that such guarantees can best be pursued by a retired President Kenyatta signing a legally binding agreement with a President Odinga that Mt Kenya’s expectations will be implemented.
"The other avenue which is a must is by having a Mt Kenya leader inside government and who has the ability to play the role of a President in waiting given that we do not have a good history of adhering to political gentleman's agreements," he said.
He said it is a closed chapter that whoever deputises Mr Odinga must be someone from Mt Kenya and precisely "a son or daughter of Murang’a County".
