President William Ruto, ODM leader Raila Odinga and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
President William Ruto appears to have leveraged his camaraderie with opposition chief Raila Odinga to push for the impeachment of his estranged deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, drawing strength from their recent political partnership.
The political foes-turned-friends, Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga, enjoy wide support not only in Kenya’s Parliament but also across the country, having been the winner and first runner-up respectively in the 2022 presidential election, accumulating a combined total of 14.1 million votes.
President Ruto garnered 7,176,141 (50.49 percent) against Mr Odinga’s 6,942,930 (48.85 percent) in the election with their parties; United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), respectively, securing the highest number of seats in the National Assembly and Senate.
In the National Assembly, where at least 291 MPs have signed in support of Mr Gachagua’s ouster, UDA holds 143 MPs while Mr Odinga’s ODM has 89 legislators.
Emboldened by their numbers in both Houses, the two leaders seemed to have sealed the DP’s fate on the sidelines of the 79th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, United States of America, where they spent most of last week.
Senate Minority whip Ledama Ole Kina, who was part of Kenya’s delegation to the assembly appeared to break the news on his X account, formerly Twitter on September 21.
“It seems your goose is cooked Mr! I hate to break the news to you Mr Truthful man, the decision has been made! Waiting to vote,” the Narok senator posted.
Deal sealed
Mr Odinga had found a footing in the Kenya Kwanza administration, following his endorsement for the chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) by President Ruto.
This followed a deal brokered by former Nigeria President Olusegun Obasanjo last year that led to Mr Odinga calling off his anti-government protests.
The deal between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga would later be sealed in July this year, with the appointment of high-profile members of his ODM party to the “broad-based” cabinet, following weeks of massive protests by the majority of young Kenyans (Gen Zs).
The high-profile ODM leaders named in the broad-based cabinet are former deputy party leaders Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya, former ODM National Chairman John Mbadi and ex-secretary of Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi, as well as former member of the party's elections board Ms Beatrice Askul.
Political analysts had, however, argued that even though President Ruto backs Mr Odinga for the AUC post, their relationship transcends his bid for the regional post.
“It is part of the arithmetic of President Ruto's re-election plans,” said political analyst and governance expert Mr Javans Bigambo.
“Raila will no doubt show gratitude by supporting Ruto's reelection and if this arrangement works, then Ruto would only need half support from Central, to escape the Mt Kenya blackmail.”
Mr Bigambo said that there is no doubt that Mr Odinga’s AUC bid has created a rare, yet essential and unavoidable political twinning between himself and President Ruto.
“This could not come without horse-trading and clandestine commitments.
The government, through President Ruto, he said, would not commit man-hours and resources without the ODM leader agreeing to make some concessions, and compromises on both sides.
Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi-Media University said Mr Odinga’s entry into the Government through his AUC quest had unsettled DP Gachagua.
“There is a great Raila factor in the squabbling in government, pitting President Ruto’s allies and his deputy. Gachagua felt that Raila was making inroads into the Kenya Kwanza administration, a government he did not support yet his Mt Kenya backyard delivered more than 4 million votes, of the 7.1 million votes Ruto secured,” Prof Naituli noted.
Mr Bigambo also observed that Mr Odinga’s closeness to the seat of power could be the reason behind the jitters being witnessed in government, pitting President Ruto’s allies against DP Gachagua’s.
“Any political deals come attached with strings of suspicion and fears of being honoured. That's what could be contributing to DP Rigathi's peace of mind, for fear of unnecessary future surprises,” the analyst said.
But even as the president continues to bask in the glory of his new-found relationship with Mr Odinga to put his house in order, he faces a tough balancing act in the Gachagua ouster as it could have far-reaching political ramifications in the country.
Messy divorce
Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga, a close ally of the DP had indicated that they will not take the impeachment lying down, insisting that “for every action, there will be an intense reaction,” signalling a possible “noisy and messy divorce.”
Political analysts say that a solution to the differences between the president and his deputy through an ouster motion only has the potential to flare up the current political temperatures.
“What the president ought to have done was to call his house to order and wait for 2027 to have a deputy of his choice since removing Gachagua will not solve the problem of corruption and tribalism that the country is currently entangled in,” Political analyst Richard Bosire told Nation.
But the president’s camp insists impeachment remains the best solution that would end the long-standing Kenya Kwanza ‘chaos’ where the government has failed to speak in one voice thus sending mixed signals to the public.
This now leaves the Head of State with a delicate balancing act in his bid to satisfy competing interests in his administration.
First, Dr Ruto will have to placate the brewing conflict between Mt Kenya East and West, where Mr Gachagua’s allies have faulted him for breeding divisions.
Apart from satisfying the competing interests for Mt Kenya East and West, President Ruto is also staring at another headache of appointing his deputy should Mr Gachagua be ousted.
Whereas Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki from Mt Kenya East has emerged as a front runner, Nation has established a secret push to have a leader from the West take over in a bid to “pacify” the region.
Female Governors uniting under the G7 banner last week endorsed outgoing Council of Governors (CoG) chairperson Anne Waiguru for deputy president position in the 2027 elections, even as Nation established behind the scenes push to have the Kirinyaga Governor replace Mr Gachagua should the DP be impeached.
Those vouching for Ms Waiguru believe that as a woman, and a native of Mt Kenya West, President Ruto “can be able to kill two birds with one stone,” and pacify the region amid raging tensions over the ouster motion.
Further still, there are also talks to have Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, the third-ranking member of the Executive, replace Mr Gachagua in the event he is impeached.
Political analyst Richard Bosire told Nation that Mr Gachagua’s removal from office does not make Mt Kenya region the automatic beneficiary of his DP post, adding that the president has a latitude to appoint any Kenyan to hold the position.
“It is a mirage to say the DP post is a preserve of the mountain. We cannot keep on recycling regions in the Executive. This will be the best opportunity to have a deputy president from another region instead of recycling two regions in the leadership of this country,” Mr Bosire told Nation.
President Ruto will have to scratch his head to make a decision that would forestall the current rising political tensions in the country.
The Head of State who is heavily relying on his political foe-turn-friend Raila Odinga in his current political chess game, also has to be cautious as the ODM leader’s troops are yet to embrace the union as a united house.
Experiencing divisions
Mr Odinga’s camp has been experiencing divisions over the move by some of their members to work with the government under the broad-based arrangement, and it remains unclear how the ODM brigade will behave after the DP is removed from office.
Some sources hinted that Mr Odinga’s side could even push to be rewarded with the DP slot for having helped in the impeachment process.
A senior ODM official told Nation that the current scenario in the party is that of a divided house.
“What we have now is ODM in Government (ODM-IG) and ODM in Opposition (ODM-IO),” the senior official quipped.
This could spell an uncertain future for the president should he sever links with Mr Gachagua and ODM refuse to play ball.
Removing the DP is also likely to lead to a gruelling fight in the judiciary as the DP’s allies have lined up a number of litigations to save his political soul.
Already, the High Court on Monday declined four attempts, including by former United Democratic Alliance Secretary-General Cleophas Malala, to stop parliament from commencing the process of impeaching the DP, signalling more catfights in the courts of law that could only fuel the political temperatures in the country.
