Do not let your guard down yet, experts warn over Covid

Health experts are warning of a possible spike in the number of Covid-19 cases by mid-next month, even as the country experiences a slowdown in the second wave of infections.

Since the beginning of the year the country has been recording a positivity rate of less than five per cent, which, as per the World Health Organisation, indicates a flattening curve.

The WHO recommends that for a curve to be flattened, a country has to have a positivity rate of five per cent and below for two or three consecutive weeks. Thereafter, a country may now consider easing some of the containment measures.

Since the beginning of the year, Ministry of Health data has indicated a semblance of the flattening of the Covid-19 infections curve. This trend is similar to that of October last year, when the positivity rate was around 3.4 per cent. The common factor in the two periods is the reopening of schools.

Infections

A month after the recall of a section of learners back to class in October the number of infections exploded from a few dozens to hundreds, with a positivity rate of 19 per cent, the highest since the virus was reported in the country. At the peak, medical workers reported 1,000 new cases in a single day, and deaths in the tens.

Experts are now warning of yet another spike of infections. Dr Ahmed Kalebi, a pathologist and founder of the Lancet Group of Labs East Africa, yesterday said there is an increase in the positive cases from the samples they are testing from their laboratories.

Festive season

Health Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe said during his Thursday Covid-19 briefing that Kenyans are dropping their guard since the impact of the festive season on the curve is yet to be felt. Yesterday the country recorded 166 new cases after testing about 7,000 samples. That translated to a positivity rate of 2.3 per cent.

Three more people lost their lives to the disease, bringing the cumulative fatalities to 1, 726. Recoveries from the disease rose by 262.

Prof Omu Anzala, a microbiologist, told the Saturday Nation that if Kenyans continue to observe the measures and adhere to them, then the curve will be flattened soon. “But we are likely to see an increase if we start misbehaving,” he cautioned.

Meanwhile, scientists have raised an alarm of a possible 16 new variants of the coronavirus that could be silently spreading in Kenya.

The scientists, from the Kenya Medical Research Institute (Kemri), said the variants are entirely different from those detected in the UK and South Africa.

In total, there are now 20 variants in circulation in Kenya, four having been discovered in March last year. One of the four variants first reported during Kemri’s initial sequencing has mutated and is now raising concern among researchers.