Sudanese refugees gather near Adre Hospital, Chad on June 16, 2023.
Sudan’s war has been a churn of bad numbers: 500 days or 16 months of death, displacement and hunger. It has also been a reflection of several numbers of ceasefire attempts that failed.
By Thursday, some rescuers were speaking of 40,000 deaths although this number has not been officially authenticated. Still, 25 million are hungry, 11 million of whom are internally displaced, making it the highest number in the Horn of Africa.
That was the war. But then floods came this week in northern parts of Sudan. Its toll was not yet known but officials were speaking of 40 deaths, 200 missing after a dam breached its banks.
In Sudan, locals have been pummeled by hunger, displaced by war, injured in violence as well as marooned by floods. What has missed, some diplomats admitted this week, is the political will to alleviate the suffering.
Tom Perriello, US Special Envoy for Sudan, while giving a readout of the ALPS Group talks on Sudan from Geneva was candid about the situation.
“The people of Sudan have suffered for far too long, with the 16 months of war and the daily horrors of shelling from the RSF, aerial bombing from the SAF, and the kinds of atrocities particularly against women and children, who have borne the brunt of this,” he told journalists in a virtual briefing.
These talks were meant to address humanitarian aid access, protect civilians and cessation of hostilities. They succeeded in opening two main inlets for aid delivery, Adre border at Chad and Dabbah road to Port Sudan, got a commitment on protection of civilians but have failed on a truce, three weeks down the road. The latter is crucial for the observance of the first two, however.
“We unfortunately see a lack of political will at the time for the parties to stop fighting, and in fact are accelerating, and on that we have two responses. First is the importance of understanding even in times of war that international humanitarian law and protection of civilians must be respected; and second, we have to find a way to get the parties together to find an end to this war that is leading to the suffering of millions inside Sudan as well as spilling over increasingly into the neighbouring countries,” lamented Parriello, whose talks were skipped by the Sudan Armed Forces (Saf).
The Saf have been fighting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 15 last year.
Although Saf argued Geneva talks were overriding missed commitments in previous talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the US Envoy argued on the contrary, and accused the Saf of seeking ways out of crucial dialogue.
“There were a lot of political excuses given for not participating, but the truth was we ended up being able to engage with a large number of people, including those inside the army, and make clear that we absolutely are building on the Jeddah Declaration, and these are commitments already made by both the RSF and the army,” he said, referring to a document reached in Jeddah on cessation of hostilities but which was never honoured and parties walked out of talks last year.
In Sudan, however, the war between the two factions has netted many players beyond the country, making it a regional issue. Earlier this week, RSF threatened to form a parallel government if the Saf does not show up for the talks in Geneva. That could create two centres of power, and mimic Libya’s collapse. But it could make it harder for mediators to strike peace.
Dr Jihad Mashamoun, a political analyst and honorary research fellow at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter in the UK said having two governments is dangerous, especially since one side may struggle for recognition internationally.
“I suspect that the UAE will be willing to accept RSF government. That is because it undermines UAE ability to gain concession from the defacto government of Burhan and his allies who control the red sea pathway of Sudan which the UAE has been interested in controlling to encourage the US to see it as a partner in both Africa and the Middle East,” he told The EastAfrican.
But it will affect neighbouring Chad, if it happens. Dr Mashamoun said such a possibility will possibly encourage the Arab tribes that support the RSF to turn against (President) Mahamat Deby whose power base of support is the Zaghawa. The Zaghawa are a tribe with presence in both Sudan and Chad.
For now, however, Saf's leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan enjoys de facto recognition from China, Russia, India, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt and most countries in Africa. “At the same time, they believe it is a matter of time that the US and the west will only accept their government. That is because the US and its allies do not want to repeat what they did in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan.”
In Geneva, Parriello did not name the UAE but argued his team has pushed against any arming of sides in the war. Responding a direct question about UAE’s role in arming the RSF, he said, “We are seeing an increasing number of external actors, both countries and negative forces, pouring fuel on the fire of Sudan, and the people of Sudan are certainly upset about it and want to see that stop.”
The UAE itself has denied such allegations including in a statement to the floor of the UN Security Council. And it was invited to Geneva alongside Egypt. One of the reasons Saf declined to attend the meeting was Abu Dhabi’s presence.
In Sudan, the atrocities have not discouraged the war. And the Saf has said they will fight to defeat RSF, even it takes 100 years.
Yet under the weight of this war, Sudan has gradually fragmented, with some states falling under the control of the army, while the RSF has taken over other regions. Out of the country's 18 states, 15 have turned into battlegrounds, while even the relatively remote states have not been spared from the crises resulting from the conflict.
The Sudanese Doctors' Union estimated that "more than 40,000 people have been killed" due to the battles, as of last June. The UN estimated 18,000 had died.
According to a report by CARE International, women and girls have born the worst of the war. In addition to deaths and displacement, makeshift clinics say 33,000 have been wounded, and some 750,000 have already faced famine in refugee camps.
“The situation is catastrophic, and the world must stop turning a blind eye to the escalating destruction and suffering,” said Abdel Rahman Ali, CARE's Director in Sudan.
“The war has shattered the healthcare system, leaving countless people without care. Aid workers struggle to reach those most in need, and food prices are rising as farms remain empty due to the lost planting season. With more than 75 percent of health centers destroyed, countless Sudanese have been left without access to basic medical services, exacerbating the suffering of an already vulnerable population,” he said in a situational report on Wednesday.
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (Fao), grain production, the staple food for most of the population, fell by 40 percent last year, with further declines expected this year. The conflict has also resulted in massive job losses, sharply increasing unemployment rates and causing the prices of basic goods to soar more than six-fold.
The economic toll of the war is evident through the sharp decline in key sectors like agriculture and trade. Many farmers have been unable to plant their crops due to the ongoing violence, leading to food shortages and increased reliance on foreign aid. This has also caused significant inflation in food prices, exacerbating the hardships faced by citizens.
In addition to the ongoing war, heavy rains have caused devastating floods extending from eastern Sudan to its northern regions, resulting in dozens of deaths and hundreds of people stranded and missing in lakes of water.
On Tuesday, destructive floods swept through dozens of cities and towns in northern Sudan following "unprecedented" heavy rainfall, the highest recorded in the northern state. The extent of the damage is still unknown, but a large number of homes, educational and health facilities, and vast areas of farmland have been affected.
These floods in the north follow heavy rains in the east of the country, leading to the collapse of the Arbaat dam, located about 40 kilometers from Port Sudan, the temporary administrative capital (east of the country), last Sunday.
Floods also inundated the city of Tokar, resulting in the death of at least 30 people, with dozens still missing. Several meteorological experts noted that heavy rains leading to widespread flooding in northern Sudan are rare events, pointing to earlier predictions of significant climate change throughout the country in the coming years.
Experts predict that with the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the north, heavy rains and the flow of valleys and streams will continue, potentially flooding large areas of cities and towns in the northern state.
As the humanitarian crisis deepens from war, health hazards and floods, lack of solutions on the horizon means the country's future remains bleak.
