A Somali police officer stands guard during a march against the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal along KM4 street in Mogadishu, Somalia on January 11, 2024.
When two Egyptian aircraft landed at Mogadishu’s Aden Abdulle International Airport on Tuesday, they were not delivering tourists to a new site. Instead, their cargo, which turned out to be weapons, became an irritant in Addis Ababa.
It had been long in coming. Egypt, a friend of Somalia, now is not in good terms with Ethiopia over the Grand Renaissance Dam (Gerd) built on the Nile and, which Cairo sees as a national security issue over water restrictions.
Yet Ethiopia is also in dispute with Somalia after Addis Ababa signed a controversial MoU with Somaliland for sea access. Somaliland is seen in Mogadishu as a part of Somalia territory, hence legally incapable of leasing a sea access to Ethiopia.
On Wednesday, Ethiopia didn’t mention Egypt by name, but it suggested it.
“Ethiopia cannot stand idle while other actors are taking measures to destabilise the region. Ethiopia is vigilantly monitoring regional developments that could threaten its national security,” said a statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on August 28.
“Ethiopia has also been engaged in facilitated discussions to resolve differences with the Government of Somalia. Tangible progress has been made in these talks. Instead of pursuing these efforts for peace, the Government of Somalia is colluding with external actors aiming to destabilise the region.”
Ethiopian diplomats privately shared the annoyance with Somalia’s dalliance with Egypt, indicating it could hurt any recent negotiations over the MoU, which Addis Ababa refuses to withdraw.
Inquiries to the Egyptian Foreign Ministry had not been responded to by the time we went to press. But Egypt has seen a chance to align with the enemy of its enemy.
It is taking advantage to contribute 5,000 troops to the mooted African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom), while another 5,000 will be stationed in the Hiran region—ostensibly to help the Somalia Federal Government fight Al Shabaab—but near the border with Ethiopia.
Ethiopia has always maintained about 4,000 troops in Somalia outside the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis), to which it has also deployed troops, to take care of its border security and ward off infiltration of Al Shabaab. But with Egyptian troops to be deployed in the same region, some see it as two bulls in one shed. Either that or, the end of any security co-operation between Somalia and Ethiopia as we know it.
Somalia and Ethiopia weren’t always friends. Twice in the past, they went to war over disputed territory. The first in 1964 ended in a stalemate. The second in 1977 was won by Ethiopia. What those battles indicated was that the two countries were always proxies of bigger players, though. In 1964, for instance, Egypt backed Somalia’s fight. In 1977, Somalia had swung allegiance to the West as Ethiopia was backed by the Soviet Union.
Hashi Warsame, a veteran of the Somali National Army soldier recalls the first Ethiopian-Somali border war in 1964.
“Egypt empowered us with Hakim rifle that we used to repel the Ethiopian attacks in various fronts,” Warsame told The EastAfrican, remembering the semiautomatic weapon.
“I hope the new consignments people are talking about are more modern and more lethal,” he added.
Until this week, Somali officials had avoided confirming any weaponry coming through. In fact, Somalia only signed a defence cooperation deal with Egypt this month. In June, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud had told The EastAfrican that Egypt was working with Somalia only diplomatically, even though he left the door open on the possibility of troops.
“There is no agreement or discussion between Somalia and Egypt to bring Egyptian forces. But I want to tell you one thing, desperate situations will have desperate solutions. Somalia will do everything to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity. But we don't have any intention to get involved in a proxy war of other people,” Mohamud said in the interview in June.
According to Somalia, problems with Ethiopia in the past shouldn’t signal war in future. But their problems are of a territorial kind. Their land border is a provisional one, they need to formally demarcate it. Somalia, as opposed to many other countries had submitted reservations on African Union’s policy that colonial borders be retained for independent states. Which may explain why Somalia also fought a territorial war with Kenya in the past.
Yet both Ethiopia and Somalia had transited from their tense relations of the 1970s after dictatorships in their countries, Siad Barre (Somalia) and Mengistu Hailemariam (of Ethiopia) were removed from power.
While Egypt and other Arab and African countries sided with Somalia on the MoU, Somalia had in the past refused to take sides on the Gerd.
In 2020, Egypt lobbied Horn of Africa countries to reprimand Ethiopia for unilateral filling of the Gerd. Ahmed Issa Awad, then Somalia foreign minister told an interview at the time said, “(on the Gerd issue) we maintain complete neutrality.”
Some Somalis now think Ethiopia repaid them with an insult.
Dr Adam Aw Hirsi, the Director of Foresight for Practical Solutions, a Mogadishu-based public policy think tank, said Ethiopia’s reactions on Wednesday was ignoring a crucial issue: That Somalia already felt threated when Addis Ababa signed the MoU in January.
“In the aftermath of the January 01, 2024, MoU that Ethiopia signed with Somaliland—an entity considered by Somalia and the rest of the world as a region within Somalia—Somalia has officially expressed feeling threatened by the Ethiopian Prime Minister's clear disregard for the Westphalian system of international law and Somalia's territorial integrity,” Dr Aw Hirsi told The EastAfrican.
“The Ethiopian senior officials' public pronouncements and approach towards the existing borders have kept the countries adjacent to Ethiopia on their toes, emboldened the Al Shabaab terror group, and revived irredentism in the Somali peninsula.
“If Ethiopia continues on the same track and posture, the overall security situation in the region can only deteriorate.”
Ethiopia's Foreign ministry argued Addis Ababa retains absolute right to self-defence when it feels threatened. Nebiyu Tedla, spokesperson for the Ministry said Addis Ababa has a right to be assured of its security concerns.
“Ethiopia has been contributing troops to Somalia for over a decade. Ethiopia has security concerns arising from Al Shabaab; therefore, Ethiopia is following the issue closely,” said Mr Nebiyu.
As in the past, however, the incident this week could reflect on other powers with interest in the Horn, in general, but specifically in Somalia and Ethiopia.
The mere mention of Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE, for example, have some kind of interests in Somalia. The three countries also have an interest in the flow of war in Sudan, which could hurt their national security but also other interests.
“Addis Ababa has a problem now with Egypt involvement in Somalia and the rebellion in Ethiopia that is undermining Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed rule and recognition to head Ethiopia,” said Jihad Mashamoun, a political analyst and honorary research fellow at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter in the UK, discussing the general situations in Sudan and Somalia.
“I suspect that he will be affected by Egypt's involvement in Somalia that will pressure the UAE interest in choosing between Egypt or Ethiopia in the HOA (Horn of Africa) and possibly Sudan.”
The UAE and Egypt have been allies in the Horn of Africa but have differed lately on who to support. Egypt aligns with the Sudan Armed Forces, for example, while the UAE is closer to the RSF, in Sudan.
The UAE supported Ethiopia militarily in Addis Ababa’s war with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) which ended in an African Union-mediated peace deal in November 2022.
Egypt, meanwhile fought off allegations it was secretly backing TPLF. Actually, the TPLF themselves had publicly supported the Gerd, even during the war. But Ethiopia has faced a rebellion from other armed groups which could become problematic should Sudan’s factions choose to align with them.
“If you see the division between UAE and Egypt in the HOA has been widening for some time now, especially in regards to Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia.
“What is keeping the alliance between both Egypt and the UAE is that the UAE has been helping Egypt to stay afloat and their interests against Turkey's expansion in the HOA and Africa and to some extent Iran expansion in Africa too is encouraging them to work together,” Mashamoun argued.
Ethiopia got into this because of the domestic pressure to seek sea access. It imports 95 percent of its goods via Djibouti port but has felt the need to widen alternatives. It has reached out to countries like Kenya via Lamu Port, which could make the facility viable.
But it riled Eritrea and Somalia with earlier comments of considering a sea access as a national security issue. Later, Prime Minister Abiy clarified that he would use diplomatic means to get the access.
In January, however, he signed an MoU, which has never been published, to get 20km of coastal stream in Somaliland region. The document reportedly assured Somaliland of recognition from Addis Ababa as an independent state. After Mogadishu protested, including to international organisations and neighbours, Ethiopia said it would seek peaceful means to resolve the issue. However, Addis Ababa refused Mogadishu’s demands that it recalls the document.
“Abiy may eventually regret that the MoU that was to give his landlocked country an access to the Red Sea through Somaliland may have opened Pandora’s Box,” remarked Omar Hayle, a political observer in Mogadishu, arguing what became as a search for sea access may complicate relations for everyone.
Somalia’s immediate reaction was to seek support, including entering defence cooperation deals from allies. Then it lampooned Addis Ababa in international arenas. Some organisations like the Arab League, Organization of Cooperation and even the UN Security Council urged for respect for national sovereignty.
Several attempts to reduce tensions by states like Kenya and Qatar that are friendly to both Somalia and Ethiopia have ended in vain.
But, limited progress was made through efforts by the Turkish Government luring the two sides to discuss their differences in its capital Ankara. Somalia did agree to attend talks in Turkey, but Mohamud also accused Ethiopia of lacking good faith by shifting mediators.
But some bits of history indicate war is not a possibility for now. When the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia that was assembled in Nairobi, Kenya, following a two-year conference (2002-2024) encountered problems in relocating to Mogadishu, Ethiopia provided security support for it.
It assembled a formidable force to assist the TFG government led by President Abdullahi Yusuf to successfully set up base at Villa Somalia.
It was a success story because before the Ethiopian forces intervened, the presidential palace was in the hands of clan militia loyal to the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), a coalition of moderate and radical Islamists that had defeated the infamous warlords in mid-2006.
To Somalis who wanted to know about the fate of the Ethiopian forces, the TFG’s President Yusuf said then, “When our need for support ends, especially if African Union forces are provided, the Ethiopian troops will return to their country.” In fact, they ventured into Somalia in 2006 and left in 2009.
Since the UIC clerics were replaced, three presidential elections followed in Mogadishu, including the incumbent leader Mohamud who was elected twice. Ethiopian troops have stayed on, under a different mandate of the African Union.
The two Horn of Africa countries had become quite amicable that on November 23, 2018 Abiy visited Mogadishu to meet with Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo to boost trade and diplomatic ties.
“We want regional integration where minds are open to ideas and markets are open to trade,” Abiy told the media in the Somali capital. They signed MoUs to jointly develop four ports in Somalia. The deal was never implemented.
On Thursday,Somali Defence Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur addressed the Somali National Army (SNA) troops at the General Gordan military camp in Mogadishu, urging them to defend Somalia against threats.
Nur also seized the opportunity to express his gratitude towards the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which run the camp, in their ongoing support and training initiatives.
The two sides know that a war between them could profit Al Shabaab.
