What you need to know:
- The poll indicates that five per cent of the voters are undecided, one per cent will not vote, two per cent did not answer.
- The survey was conducted between July 3 and 12 through face-to-face interviews and mobile phones.
With 14 days to the General Election, the race to State House is tight and only voter turnout in President Uhuru Kenyatta’s and his main rival Raila Odinga’s strongholds, will determine the winner, according to polling firm Ipsos Synovate.
The President is leading with 47 per cent and Mr Odinga at 43 per cent, the firm’s lead researcher, Dr Tom Wolf, said voter turnout holds the key to a first-round victory in the August 8 election.
Dr Wolf said the findings rule out the possibility of a run-off, arguing that a voter turnout reflecting the last elections would give Jubilee victory in the first round.
“The winner will come out in the first round of voting,” Dr Wolf said, warning that people may turn up and yet fail to vote due to various reasons.
The poll indicates that five per cent of the voters are undecided, one per cent will not vote, two per cent did not answer, while the remaining one per cent could vote for other presidential candidates.
Another Ipsos poll released in February indicated that Mr Kenyatta had 47 per cent support while Mr Odinga had 30 per cent.
The survey further indicates that if polls were held today, President Kenyatta would get more votes from his Central Kenya strongholds at 88 per cent, 10 per cent would vote for Mr Odinga while other presidential candidates would get nothing.
In Coast, 24 per cent would vote for the President, 63 per cent for Mr Odinga, two per cent for others, five per cent are undecided, three per cent would not vote, while another three per cent did not answer.
In Eastern, which is the stronghold of Mr Odinga’s running mate Kalonzo Musyoka, Mr Kenyatta would get 49 per cent of the votes, while Mr Odinga would get 41 per cent.
In Nairobi, President Kenyatta would only manage 28 per cent, while Mr Odinga would get 64 per cent, other candidates would get nothing, with three per cent undecided, two per cent not voting, while one per cent did not answer.
In North Eastern, President Kenyatta has an edge over Mr Odinga, projected to win 62 per cent of the votes compared with 36 per cent for the opposition, while in Nyanza, the Jubilee candidate would get 16 per cent compared with Nasa’s 76 per cent.
In Rift Valley, the President would get 65 per cent to Mr Odinga’s 26 per cent.
In Western, which remains Mr Odinga’s stronghold, President Kenyatta would get 22 per cent of the vote while Mr Odinga would carry 56.
If the race is left to President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga alone, 52 per cent said they would vote for Kenyatta while 48 per cent would go with Mr Odinga.
The survey was conducted between July 3 and 12 through face-to-face interviews and mobile phones.