In an aging world, what are Kenya’s prospects?
Kenya’s population structure now is very much like South Korea’s was in the mid ‘70s, just as its economy began to grow
Everywhere you look around the world, birth-rates are already low or falling fast. Partly, that’s because families are choosing to have fewer children, but a far more important reason is that educated women are delaying having children to pursue their careers.
Very few female graduates now have their first child in their twenties while most non-graduate women will have had a child by then.
That’s because decisions about having children are driven more by economics than emotions. And highly skilled women can earn far more if they delay having a child.
All these individual decisions add up to far-reaching changes in global populations.
For example, the birth rate in Japan is currently so low that it’s become the oldest large country. Ever. With a smaller workforce that’s having to support an increasingly elderly population.
Many other populations are also aging in countries such as China, India, South Korea, Europe, Brazil, Mexico and Thailand. For the first time in recorded history, more than half of the global population is over 30 years old, and some entire populations, including Japan’s, have started to shrink.
All the people who will be at their optimum working age in 25 years’ time have already been born, so we can count them! The numbers make interesting reading.
For example, China will have 200 million fewer people of working age by then, a decrease larger than the entire population of many countries.
So, it’s highly likely that by then, China will have lost its manufacturing edge. China’s also becoming old before it’s become rich, which will cause enormous difficulties in supporting an aging population.
An obvious way to compensate for dwindling birth rates is to increase immigration. But in China’s case there just aren’t enough suitable migrants to compensate for the lower birth rate.
Birth rates in Africa are also declining, but in twenty five years it will be the only continent with a large working age population.
So, the opportunity here is enormous. Especially because falling birth rates bring a ‘demographic dividend.’ The growing number of people of working age will have fewer dependents fuelling economic growth.
Kenya is especially well placed, as its population structure now is very much like South Korea’s was in the mid ‘70s, just as its economy began to grow. So, we need to start attracting manufacturing to Kenya as China and other Asian countries lose their competitive edge.
If we don’t, we will be missing a huge opportunity. And lots of our brightest and best will migrate to where the jobs are. There’s also a huge danger that if development policies don’t start attracting jobs to Kenya, then large numbers of young adults will lack access to attractive careers, and may well turn to crime, or worse.
We already know what Kenya’s population will look like in twenty five years’ time, and it’s an optimistic picture. But what Kenyan society will look like will depend enormously on the choices our leaders make.
