Understanding Nationally Determined Contributions ahead of COP29
The 29th session of the global climate change negotiations (COP 29) is happening in Baku, Azerbaijan in November.
What you need to know:
- NDCs are national climate pledges that outline how countries intend to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
- Established under the Paris Agreement in 2015, these contributions represent each country's self-defined commitment to combat climate change.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are central to global efforts against climate change. While progress has been made since their inception, much work remains to ensure these commitments translate into meaningful action. With the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) on the horizon, it is crucial to assess how these contributions are evolving and their implications for future climate action. It is also essential for countries to enhance their ambitions and secure the necessary implementation support.
The journey towards achieving global climate goals requires collective action and unwavering commitment from all nations. Prioritising robust NDCs that address mitigation and adaptation strategies while ensuring equitable transitions has the potential to achieve global sustainability.
What are NDCs?
NDCs are national climate pledges that outline how countries intend to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Established under the Paris Agreement in 2015, these contributions represent each country's self-defined commitment to combat climate change.
Countries must submit and update their NDCs every five years, reflecting their highest possible ambition based on current scientific understanding and national capabilities. The overarching goal is to limit global warming to well below 2°C, with efforts to restrict the increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
NDCs are not legally binding, but they serve as politically backed commitments that signal each nation's dedication to achieving climate goals. While countries must have an NDC and pursue domestic measures to fulfill their obligations, they are not legally bound to achieve specific targets. They encompass various critical aspects such as climate finance, adaptation strategies, and a just transition towards sustainable economies. For example, many NDCs outline financial requirements for implementing climate actions, emphasising the need for international support—especially for developing nations.
The concept of NDCs emerged from earlier frameworks established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Before the Paris Agreement, countries submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), non-binding pledges made during the 2013 Warsaw Climate Conference. The transition from INDCs to NDCs marked a significant shift in international climate negotiations, allowing countries to define their contributions based on national circumstances while adhering to a collective global framework.
The Paris Agreement is a universal commitment, mandating that all signatory countries participate. Combined with bottom-up elements, this top-down approach empowers nations to set their targets while contributing to a global effort. The result is a diverse array of commitments that reflect varying capabilities and priorities across different regions.
Global progress on NDCs
Countries have made incremental progress in updating their NDCs. However, recent assessments indicate that current commitments fail to meet temperature goals and are projected to lead to a temperature increase of about 2.5-2.9°C by 2100. A report by the World Resources Institute highlights that while many nations have updated their plans, only a fraction includes more ambitious emissions reductions compared to previous submissions. COP29 in Azerbaijan will be a critical juncture for countries to reassess and enhance their ambitions before the next round of submissions.
Globally, emissions reductions must increase significantly, by approximately 80 per cent beyond current NDC targets, to have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to 2°C. This reality underscores the urgency for nations to ramp up their efforts and align their policies with scientific recommendations.
Africa faces unique challenges related to climate change, including extreme weather events, food insecurity and biodiversity loss. Despite these hurdles, many African nations have demonstrated leadership in their climate commitments through robust NDCs. For instance, several countries have incorporated detailed adaptation strategies alongside mitigation efforts, showcasing an understanding of the interconnectedness of these issues.
The African Development Bank emphasises that unlocking the potential of NDCs is crucial for sustainable development across the continent. By integrating climate action into national development plans, African countries can address immediate needs while preparing for future challenges. However, achieving these goals requires significant investment in climate finance and international cooperation.
Kenya aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 32 per cent by 2030 compared to business-as-usual scenarios, an increase from its previous 30 per cent target. While part of this updated NDC is not conditional on international support, 87 per cent of the required funding still relies on external sources. Key sectors for emissions reductions include energy, agriculture and forestry, focusing on renewable energy and sustainable practices.
Discussions at COP29 will likely center on enhancing climate finance mechanisms essential for meeting NDC targets. Developed nations face pressure to fulfill their financial commitments, primarily due to increasing recognition of loss and damage from climate impacts. Strengthening these financial frameworks will enable developing countries to achieve their climate goals and ensure a just transition to sustainable development. The conference's outcomes will influence how nations formulate their next round of NDCs.
