June breaks global record as hottest month over the past year

June joins a year-long streak of the hottest months on record, taking up the newest position with the highest temperatures that have not been surpassed before. 

The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service's earth observation component released this worrying landmark, adding June as the 13th hottest month on record.  

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) termed it ‘Another Red Alert’ when confirming the global average warming data for June on Twitter. 

The Copernicus data analysis shows that the global-average temperature in the period between July 2023 and June 2024 is 1.64 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. 

Their data also shows that the sea surface temperature was the highest as June became the 15th warmest month in a row.

"This is more than a statistical oddity and it highlights a large and continuing shift in our climate. Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm. This is inevitable unless we stop adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the oceans,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

Their data already proves that the world has surpassed the 1.5 degrees Celsius average global temperature that is underlined in the Paris Agreement as a threshold for avoiding negative impacts of climate change. 

“These latest figures from the Copernicus Climate Change Service unfortunately highlight that we will be exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius level temporarily with increasing frequency, on a monthly basis,” said the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

“However, it is important to stress that temporary breaches do not mean that the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal is permanently lost because this refers to long-term warming over at least two decades,” she added.

In a statement, WMO, which uses different data sets to come to a conclusive report, shows that other datasets may not confirm the 12-month streak. They explain that there could be relatively small margins above 1.5 degrees Celsius from the Copernicus analysis on global temperatures for the months of July and August 2023, as well as May and June 2024.

Why then is the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark disconcerting?

This wonder mark of 1.5 degrees Celsius was set as a goal in 2015 by all countries that are party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21).

Three years after the signing of this agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is tasked by the United Nations to tackle all the scientific assessments on climate change, released a special report to show the implications of living in a world that has surpassed global average temperatures of 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Their report shows that there is a likelihood of having hot extremes in most areas, heavy precipitation and droughts. 

There will also be sea level rise, negative impacts on the world’s biodiversity and risks to people’s health, livelihoods and food security.

Even as last month’s prediction from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) shows that the month of June was generally dry, with some areas receiving rainfall, KMD’s director told ‘Climate Action’ that Kenya is not exempt from the warming streaks.

“Kenya is not isolated,” said Dr David Gikungu.

“If you look at climatology, you will find that this month is even lower than average…we are in sync with what others are observing in other parts of the world, especially in the African region,” he said.

In the next few weeks, however, the Kenya Met forecast shows that some parts of the country will continue to experience rainfall; with intermittent cold and cloud conditions in some areas.

“The outlook for the June-July-August 2024 rainfall season indicates likelihood of above-average rainfall for the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin Region, the Rift Valley, parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley and the Northwestern Region,” shows the forecast.

As the global average temperatures continue breaking the bar that was set, other parts of the world experienced a wetter than usual June including a shattering Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean.

The Copernicus reporting shows that there is also a likelihood for the occurrence of a La Nina event.

“Temperatures were below average over the eastern equatorial Pacific, indicating a developing La Niña, but air temperatures over the ocean remained at an unusually high level over many regions,” they explain.

But what does this mean specifically for Africa, a continent already grappling with myriad challenges? 

Scientists say the continent is warming faster than the global average. The State of the Climate in Africa 2019 report, coordinated by the *World Meteorological Organization, paints a vivid picture of the unfolding crisis, which is only projected to get worse.

In 2023, WMO reports that the continent was hit by two major flooding events (Cyclone Freddy in Southern Africa and Tropical Storm Daniel in Libya), which left a trail of death and destruction in their wake. Now Freddy has gone down in the annals of history as the longest lasting cylone the world has ever seen, after it lasted for at least 33 days.

"Extreme heat affected northern Africa on a number of occasions during July and August, a southward extension of the persistent heat which impacted southern Europe. In the July heatwave, all-time records included those at Tunis (Tunisia) (49.0 °C on 24 July) and Algiers (49.2 °C on 23 July), while a second heatwave brought a temperature of 50.4 °C to Agadir (Morocco) on August 11, the first time that 50 °C has been reached in Morocco. Northwestern Africa was also affected by drought, with rainfall in Morocco for the 2022-23 rainy season 28 per cent below average, the fourth successive year with rainfall at least 20 per cent below average and the country's driest four-year period on record. Rainfall was also well below average in the early part of the 2023-24 rainy season," WMO reported in the 2023 State pf Global Climate Report.

"The Greater Horn of Africa region, which had been experiencing long-term drought, suffered substantial flooding in 2023, particularly later in the year as heavy rains associated with El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole became established. The most badly affected area was the region encompassing the southern half of Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya. During the Deyr rainy season (October and November), monthly rainfall in this region was widely 100 to 200 mm and locally exceeded 200 mm, several times long-term averages. This followed widespread above-average rainfall in the Gu rainy season (April to June)," the report added.

In the remaining half of the year, East Africa region, which has just come out of an El-Nino season that caused massive flooding, will be facing a La-Nino, which is expected to bring a drought.

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