Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump is assisted by U.S. Secret Service personnel after gunfire rang out during a campaign rally at the Butler Farm Show in Butler, Pennsylvania, U.S., July 13, 2024.
The following are "frequently asked questions" on current US presidential elections and why Kenyan interests are in favour of supporting Donald Trump’s re-election.
1. Why should US elections matter to Kenyans? Ideally, they should not matter. The US is a sovereign country with its own priorities and decisions. One might think the US is so important to Kenya's economic trajectory but incidentally, other countries matter more. We trade more with our neighbours like Uganda and Tanzania than the US. Trouble in the Middle East should concern us more than US elections since our most important export (tea) is sold there. Sanctions of Iran the Tahrir Square revolution in Egypt or the jailing of former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan should be making headlines in Kenya as these events can disrupt our economy more tragically. But on the other hand, practically they matter. We share democratic values with the US and hence their elections offer important political lessons. US exercises "soft power" as described by Prof Joseph Nye which tranfuses American norms in the entire world, Kenya included. Their music. That is why news of Biden stepping down found itself on our news screens. As they say, no man is an Island, no man stands alone. The US President's policies will diffuse and impact Kenya in one way or another. US hosts one of the largest and richest Kenyan diasporas whose remittances now exceed our most important exports.
2. Between the Republican party's Donald Trump and Democratic Party's Kamala Harris, whom do you think is supported by a majority of Kenyans? The best way to answer this question would be to rely on credible opinion poll results on Kenyans on their preference. None so far has been done. But based on anecdotal evidence and upon scanning around social media, and I might be wrong, I suspect a majority of Kenyans support Kamala Harris. Possibly for several reasons. First, the democratic party has an image of being the party of "diversity". That sits well with international audiences like Kenya. It is the party that produced the first black American President. The party of Barack Obama and Kamala Harris. In contrast, the Republican Party has a " racist/ white supremacy" image. Second, the democratic party is viewed as being soft on immigration. This sends a signal to Kenyans that their relatives in the US are safer under Democrats' rule. Why Kenya should support Donald Trump
3. Kenyan public views aside. Which of the two (Trump or Harris ) should be supported by Kenyans? Republican party. And thus in this case Donald Trump. And for obvious reasons. First, the key consideration when people make an electoral decision should always be policies. What social and economic policies do candidates stand for? Views on taxation. Role of government in the economy. Views on trade. Family views. But often this is not always the case in politics. Often people tend to vote based on "identity politics". Supporting the Democratic party for fronting a half-black candidate is identity politics. Often leaders who obtain office based on mtu wetu philosophy tend to underperform. A keen analysis of the historical policies of the two American parties shows Republican party's policies are more aligned with African lived reality. It was the Republican Party that fought for the abolition of slavery. And went to war for that. The Republican policies lean strongly toward the protection of the family unit, unlike the Democratic party. Blacks in the US have the highest rate of non-marital births at 73 per cent. By contrast, US Asian families have the strongest families. The flip side is, that there is a strong correlation between strong families and prosperous children. In her book Two Parent Privilege, How Americans Stopped Getting Married and Started Falling Behind, Melissa S. Kearney makes a case for marriage by showing how the decline in marriage leads to a host of economic woes. When two adults marry, they confer among themselves and their children a host of economic benefits - behavioural and educational outcomes. The instability of black families in the US and thus their low economic fortunes might be exacerbated by the Democratic Party's socially liberal policies. Kenyans, and by extension Africans, being pro-family, should thus lean Republican. Finally, Republicans are the party of trade and better humanitarianism as opposed to the Democratic party freebies. Kenya will never develop on account of Western countries' donations. American Presidents from the Democratic party tend to increase support for African institutions that give free things. Well, that is good because something is better than nothing. But Republican's support tends to be more solid. The African Growth and Opportunity Act was introduced in US Congress by Republican Phil Crane. Kenya is the third African country to best leverage that law, having exported goods worth US$523 million. In humanitarianism, Republican Party President George Bush's Emergency Plan for Aids relief helped save more than 13 million lives in Africa. Before his departure, in 2020 President Trump had announced the intent to negotiate the first of it's kind regional trade agreement with Kenya. Such trade agreements have tended to benefit poorer countries more. Therefore, the Democratic party is all pomp and colour. Nothing substantive to make Kenya move ahead. On the issue of immigration, data seems to suggest Democrats are harder on illegal immigrants than Republicans, notwithstanding their rhetoric. Obama removed 2.5 million persons from the US. Trump removed fewer.
4. Preferences aside, between Trump and Harris, who has the highest chance of winning? Credible opinion firms like Reuters, Economist and CNN place Trump ahead as of now. But I am placing my bet on Prof Allan Lichtman. He has perfectly predicted all US elections since the 1980s. He wrote a book "13 Keys to the White House". He uses a 13-point checklist that assesses the political situation of the US. When five or fewer of the items are false, the incumbent party nominee wins and vice versa. He argues voters are not gullible - they vote according to how well a country is governed and campaigns do not matter. Campaigns and polls are mere entertainment. He is yet to call the elections.
