Tread with care on revolution calls

If the opposition rally called for today at Nairobi’s Kamukunji grounds proceeds as planned, it will be used to set the stage for the resumption of public demonstrations, this time focused on the punitive taxation measures in the Finance Bill 2023 rammed through Parliament last week and assented to into law by President William Ruto on Monday.

The return of Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Coalition Party leader Raila Odinga from an overseas visit should galvanise dispirited and disjointed Opposition troops who failed dismally on the Floor of the National Assembly despite having vowed to block the passage of the contentious tax proposals in the President Ruto-led Kenya Kwanza Alliance administration’s first Budget.

If the words uttered last week by Raila’s acolytes, such as Parliamentary Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi and Whip Junet Mohamed are anything to go by, Azimio plan to exploit public discontent over the rising cost of living and a seemingly uncaring government to excite civil rebellion.

Popular uprising

They warned the President to prepare for a popular uprising and collapse of his government, alluding to a revolution in the making. Such talk actually goes back to March, when Kalonzo Musyoka, the party leader of Azimio-affiliated-Wiper Democratic Movement, told The Weekly Review magazine about the series of demonstrations called by Azimio to demand an audit of the allegedly stolen 2023 presidential election and protest the high cost of living was a revolutionary moment.

Passage of the Ruto economic plan, which attempts at bridging a serious budget and fund ambitious spending proposals with increased taxation, might thus be a blessing in disguise for an oft-confused and rudderless Opposition.

Mr Odinga has a lot of public anger to exploit and, specifically, the opportunity to capitalise on disillusionment and a sense of betrayal in regions which voted solidly for Kenya Kwanza expecting immediate payback for the so-called Hustler Nation.

 It is, of course, perfectly legitimate to take advantage of blunders by an opponent. The Ruto campaign promised more than it could deliver. That tired default mechanism of blaming the dire economy inherited from President Uhuru Kenyatta has run its course. The focus is more interested in what President Ruto does to meet the high expectations implanted in the minds of the party faithful, not on what President Kenyatta did or did not do.

No quick fixes

Almost from Day 1, it was evident that there would be no quick fixes. President Ruto did, indeed, move swiftly on assuming office to signal that economic recovery efforts would come with some pain but the perception of a spendthrift, wasteful and corrupt administration lavishing goodies on the wealthy while ignoring the suffering of the masses has not helped.

Mr Odinga would be foolish to not take political advantage of the government’s missteps. That is what the opposition exists for. However, he, too, must tread with caution. It’s one thing to run a political campaign that will gleefully and legitimately grab every opportunity presented by mistakes from the other side.

In doing that, he has the legal and constitutional right to organise anti-government rallies, protests, marches, picketing and other forms of free expression. He must be allowed to do so without violent interference from the security organs of an administration that sometimes forgets Kenya has moved from the era of a dictatorial police state.

However, Mr Odinga must also take responsibility for the peaceful and orderly conduct of his gatherings. Stone throwing, looting, bonfires, robbery, destruction of property and disruption of normal movement, traffic, business and other activities is not envisaged under the legal and constitutional protections his gatherings must be accorded.

Electoral justice

It is also necessary to look at the objectives of the rallies. Demanding electoral justice, good governance and a fair share for the common man is perfectly fit and proper but we would be venturing into uncharted territory with calls for revolution or ouster of government.

There are instances where a populace suffering an oppressive and dictatorial regime has the right to employ extra-constitutional means to free itself. That is, legitimate restoration of democracy, constitutionalism and the rule of law. In ordinary circumstances, however, the Constitution does not envisage insurrection as a protected right.

One may term the Ruto government as corrupt, inept and unfeeling but I highly doubt it falls into the class of regimes that must be removed by force.

Kenya is a democracy, however imperfect. Dr Ruto did not shoot his way into power but was elected in a popular vote, albeit contested. By all means, sustained public pressure can be used to force President Ruto to accede to certain demands but, if his leadership fails the people, he will be removed at the next ballot and not prematurely through mayhem in the streets.

[email protected]. @MachariaGaitho