The myth of ‘undecided voters’

For whatever it is worth, I am one of those who fervently hoped that Azimio candidate Raila Odinga would skip the presidential debate slated for Tuesday this week.

My reasoning was that there would be no need to engage in a rhetorical pissing contest with an opponent whose no-holds-barred approach to this year’s campaign has few equals, and whose gift of the gab behind the microphone is incontestable.

That Mr Odinga did abstain from the debate is a measure of the man’s astuteness.

It was inevitable that his no-show would be misconstrued as cowardice, and it was, by some.

But very few people really believe the veteran politician is a coward.

He probably just got fed up with the many epithets hurled at him during campaign rallies, and he could not be certain it would not happen during the debate, leading to highly dramatic altercations being amplified on prime-time television with few beneficial results.

Indeed, nobody, least of all the moderators, could guarantee that such exchanges would have been temperate.

Sorely disappointed

Of course, those yearning for an evening full of entertainment without any redeeming value must have been sorely disappointed. I, therefore, applaud Mr Odinga for erring on the side of prudence instead of plunging headlong into a trap unworthy of his stature as a statesman.

Nevertheless, there is no intention here of defending him for letting down millions of Kenyans who looked forward to hearing his views on how he would rescue this country from the economic doldrums it has sunk into.

It would have been wonderful to hear him expound on the many nice things that are in Azimio’s manifesto, the way Deputy President William Ruto tried to do during his soliloquy.

Indeed, Mr Odinga’s absence obviously robbed the “debate” of the give-and-take that would have allowed undecided voters to interrogate the pledges meant to help them make up their minds.

On the other hand, there is a strong likelihood the debate would have degenerated into acrimony, with the contestants accusing each other of high-level thievery or being state puppets.

Such accusations and counter-accusations would not have helped in the search for the right leader.

In parts of the world, such debates have degenerated into absurdities.

A good example is the second one between American presidential contestants Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton back in 2016.

Those who watched it must have been struck by Mr Trump's attempts to neutralise Clinton by incessantly interrupting her and physically looming over her to intimidate her.

In the end, he became president, but not necessarily because he won the debate.

When he tried the same tactics with Mr Joe Biden in 2020, it didn’t work because Biden fought back ferociously, demonstrating just how much of a disaster Mr Trump had been for America.

Well, one could argue that this is not America and we are a lot more civilised in the way we carry out our public discourse, but for some reason, this argument is not very convincing.

Judging from the political campaign rallies during which the Azimio contestant has always been described in less than complimentary terms – as mganga, kitendawili, and so on–while his opponent is described as a ravenous land-grabber and tenderpreneur, it does appear that a live debate would have degenerated into a romp in the pigsty.

For Raila, the risk would have been too great.

Having said all that, while it is possible that the solo “debate” did sway some undecided voters to support DP Ruto and Kenya Kwanza, the corollary is also possible.

Those already in the coalition are likely to remain in it to the end, for nothing said on Tuesday was really new, except, perhaps, Mr Ruto’s rather curious assertions that the cancellation of the Arror and Kimwarer dam project was politically instigated to hurt him, and that the interminable violence in Kerio Valley and West Pokot is meant to sabotage his quest for the presidency.

Opinion polls 

As for Mr Odinga, it is doubtful that anything he says from now on will lure anyone from Kenya Kwanza to his side, and so the battle for the undecided voter is likely to get a lot hotter, and pointless, in the next nine days.

In fact, in my view, there are no undecided voters anymore.

Most of those answering opinion polls have either decided to vote one way or the other but opted to keep it to themselves, or they have decided not to vote at all, which, in itself, is a decision.

In other words, Kenyans have already made up their minds about where their votes are going, and most are just waiting for the whistle.

Right now, this election is too close to call and short of blatant vote rigging at the last minute, the results could go either way.

In the meantime, my fellow patriots are to be congratulated for maintaining peace in a tight race.

It looks like the lessons of the International Criminal Court at the Hague have really sunk in among the leadership and, thank God, the cycle of electoral violence may have been broken forever.

Mr Ngwiri is a consultant editor; [email protected]