Succession: Showdown, Sagana and after

I prefer to view Sagana III as the beginning of a journey. It can’t be the event that ends everything. Tangatangas got a deadly blow for sure, but they didn’t die overnight. They remain alive and kicking. The rest of the journey depends entirely on President Uhuru Kenyatta. This is his war. Much as he admonished his loyal MPs for displaying timidity, it’s his leadership in the battlefield that will determine the results.

The war will not be won in boardrooms or town hall meetings. Nay, not even in conclaves convened in State House and state lodges. Those should be seen as merely preparatory. The war will be won in the villages and rural hamlets across Kenya, and in the streets and dens all over our towns, big and small. As they say, Uhuru must now take the bull by the horns. He must hit the road. Himself. When you start something, don’t let the momentum ebb. Never.

For four years now, Deputy President William Ruto has been campaigning non-stop across the country. His campaigning is particularly intense in the Mt Kenya region. We all know why. Sagana III marked the beginning of the dismantling of all that effort. If things go according to plan, it will mark not just the end of Ruto’s prolonged adventure in the Mountain; it will also be the end of his dreams to become President of Kenya. If all fails, Uhuru’s legacy will be left in tatters. The stakes are that high.

Spill the beans 

Prior to Sagana III, the President had intimated he would use the meeting to explain why he fell out with his deputy, and why he doesn’t deem him a worthy successor. That was the message the entire country was eagerly awaiting. He promised to “spill the beans”. My feeling is that he didn’t go all the way as the public anticipated. He was clearly holding a lot back. Yes, he mentioned the theft of the Kimwarer and Arror dams’ funds, but Kenyans already knew much about that. There’s anyway a pending court case on it. That reference was obviously the tip of the iceberg.

Uhuru chose to dwell more on the 2018 ‘Handshake’, and specifically how he kept Ruto informed at every step of the way. However, the DP chose to be duplicitous and pretended he was kept in the dark. Yet I don’t think the Handshake was all there is in the rift between the President and his deputy. I believe there is more besides the Handshake Uhuru chose not to reveal in Sagana. Things that happened before or subsequent to the Handshake. 

Certainly there’ll be more the President will disclose when he hits the campaign trail. He has stated he’ll campaign for his candidate, Raila Odinga. Uhuru had better be watertight in his assault while bracing for vicious counter-attacks from UDA. The deconstruction of Ruto we should expect started with the allusion to his tenure at the Agriculture ministry (he got sacked), and the tenures thereafter of ministers allied to him. Tangatangas have made much of how Mt Kenya farmers in the coffee and tea sectors have endured pain. Uhuru has now thrown the ball back in their court.

Essentially, Uhuru was pointing his finger at Ruto as being complicit in the problems that beset Mt Kenya’s agricultural sector. More broadly, he blamed the collapse of the coffee and tea sectors on the post-Mzee Jomo Kenyatta and pre-Mwai Kibaki misgovernance. Aha, the point he was making was that a Ruto government would mean a return to that dark era. That’s loaded stuff Mt Kenya remembers all too well.

Chosen candidate

Uhuru was right in highlighting his administration’s development scorecard in Mt Kenya. Frankly, it’s indisputable. Lies are best countered by facts. Ruto’s brigade has been saying Uhuru has done zero for his home region. At Sagana, the PowerPoint presentation of the projects Uhuru’s administration has spearheaded in Mt Kenya was spot on. Projects ranging from water and irrigation, rural markets, hospitals and health infrastructure – they were all displayed. And, of course, the roads.

But is harping on ‘development’ the best way to fight Ruto in Mt Kenya? I think the key focus should be on Ruto himself. Is he good for the region? That is the question. The President and many other influential people from there know he’s not, with good reason. There are too many negatives about Ruto vis-a-vis the Mountain region. It goes back to the not-too-long-ago past the region experienced with its Rift Valley diaspora. That recent history is well known.

Handshake

At the same time, Uhuru should step up to highlight what he touts as the merits of his chosen candidate, Raila. Indeed, shying away from making him a campaign selling point is a mistake. Since the Handshake, Raila has demonstrated courageous goodwill towards initiatives Mt Kenya has strongly embraced, like the one-man-one-vote-one-shilling push. The voting log in Parliament of his ODM lawmakers is there for all to see. Last year, Raila also went on record saying he will support restitution for the 2007/8 post-election violence victims. Such are the issues Ruto will never utter a word in support of.

Just as Uhuru underestimated the inroads Tangatangas were making in Mt Kenya, while at the same time overestimating the capacity of Mt Kenya youth to differentiate between sense and humbug, Ruto’s clique have for their part been underestimating the lengths Uhuru will go to to stop his deputy from getting power. I have heard several Ruto henchmen derisively question whether Uhuru will really go flat out for Raila. For the sceptical lot, the answer is – he will. Looking at Uhuru closely, any perceptive person can tell the President is ready to do everything in his power to block Ruto from occupying State House. It’s that serious.

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Mmm... Russia invading Ukraine. Huge, huge global mess. Let’s talk about it next week.

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