Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua addresses the faithful at the Sacred Heart Catholic Church in Endarasha, Nyeri County, on May 19, 2024.
The die has been cast”. Those were the words uttered by then Health Minister Mwai Kibaki in 1989 as the push for a Motion of Censure against Dr Josephat Karanja, his short-lived successor as Vice President, gathered momentum in the National Assembly.
Shortly afterwards Dr Karanja was taken through a lynching in Parliament. He tried to put up a fight but couldn’t get a word in edgewise, and just before a vote was taken, threw in the towel with these immortal words: “Common decency has been thrown out of the window, replaced by political thuggery and vindictiveness.”
If the planned Impeachment Motion to remove Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua pushed from within the ruling coalition by a rabid mob let loose by President William Ruto is filed, the DP might be well-advised to start drafting his defiant exit speech.
Mr Gachagua might be as tough as nails, but resistance would be an exercise in futility when up against the Deep State political machinery determined to employ its full arsenal; wheelbarrow loads of cash, as well as the National Intelligence Service, the Directorate of Criminal Investigations and the Directorate of Public Prosecutions.
If it is true that the Impeachment Motion is set to be filed in the National Assembly today or later this week, Mr Gachagua might as well start packing his bags.
Formal hearing
Of course he can decide to endure a formal hearing. He thinks he has the numbers in Parliament to override the impeachment. Reality is that even from his own populous Mt Kenya regional base, he can count only a handful of MPs willing to stand with him.
While the DP may have finally achieved his goal of conquering the mountain, the transactional nature of our politics will work against him.
It would also be naive for the DP to imagine that he can put up a reasoned counter to the allegations levelled against him. Impeachment is a political rather than a legal process. What will matter at the hearing is not truth and facts, but the decibel count of baying mobs.
Fair hearing
Mr Gachagua, in any case, cannot expect a fair hearing in either the National Assembly or the Senate. The respective speakers, Moses Wetang’ula and Amason Kingi, have never distinguished themselves as balanced arbiters and heads of an equal and independent arm of government. They come across more as ‘Kanu Kwanza’ youth wingers.
The DP would do well to read up on a bit of contemporary Kenyan political history, starting with a study on the spectacular rise and fall of Dr Karanja.
Political novice
The political novice with barely a term as an elected MP was plucked out of nowhere by then President Daniel arap Moi to succeed Mr Kibaki as Vice President in 1988. Within a short time, he became a study in hubris. He imagined that he had risen to the top of the mountain, bullying and intimidating Mt Kenya MPs who failed to recognise his supremacy.
He had no time for the arts of persuasion, and clearly hadn’t read up on how to win friends and influence people. Arrogance and pride was to be his downfall, for when Mr Moi decided kick him out after barely a year in office, Dr Karanja had nobody to stand with him.
Those were of course different circumstances being the days of a single-party system, but the underlying political dynamics around having a strong and committed ethnic or regional support base have not changed.
Mr Gachagua has not made friends. He can now claim to own the Mt Kenya base, but impeachment is determined in Parliament, not the ‘ground’ he listens to.
If he has indeed finally won the hearts and minds of the populous region, Mr Gachagua will present a formidable threat to Dr Ruto come the 2027 polls.
However, history also shows that Mt Kenya numbers alone cannot win a presidential election, unless backed by at least one or two other populous groups.
Another reality is that Mt Kenya is never beholden to any ethnic chieftain. The people will vote like sheep for any candidate who holds promise to lead them to the promised land, but desert in droves if the vote might be wasted on a futile quest.
There is of course the possibility that the matter will never get to an impeachment hearing. President Ruto might prefer the ongoing parallel process driven through the pliant security and justice systems that seems designed to force him into resignation before he is dragged screaming through the mud. Whatever the strategy, the die has been cast.
[email protected]; @MachariaGaitho
