Mini-polls show regional tilt of our politics

Eish. I have yet to see by-elections that are as chaotic as those of March 4. Several MPs arrested. Rampant cases of voter bribery. Tear gas all over. An IEBC official assaulted. Alas, the Tangatanga crew supporting the newly minted United Democratic Alliance (UDA) bore the brunt of the arrests. 

When Raila Odinga toured Kilifi County last week, area Governor Amason Kingi stood his ground that a homegrown Coast political party was necessary and he vowed to continue his push to form one. The ODM leader was not too pleased about that, maintaining that national parties were ideal.

The trend in the seven by-elections of last week seemed to bear out Kingi's position. The results showed a clear zonal or ethnic pattern: Matungu constituency, Kakamega (ANC); Kabuchai constituency, Bungoma (Ford-Kenya); Kiamokama ward, Kisii (ODM); Kitise-Kithuki ward, Makueni (Wiper); Hell's Gate ward, Naivasha, and Huruma ward in Eldoret (Jubilee).
Of course by-elections are different from a general election. But perhaps not quite so. 

The main political formations that compete in general elections are usually coalitions of regional parties. But during by-elections regional parties tend to come into their own to protect their zones, even when they belong to larger coalitions.

UDA’s ambition of riding a wave that would swamp regional parties suffered a reality check. It only managed to wrest the hotly contested London ward in Nakuru from Jubilee. London ward became the first and only electoral seat so far UDA holds. The party had fielded candidates in all the contests except Kitise-Kithuki and Huruma wards.

Jubilee, ostensibly the ruling party, was early on resigned to the fact that other parties were much stronger in their fiefdoms and thus contested only in London, Hell’s Gate and Huruma wards. 

Party strongholds

Likewise Wiper, Kanu and Ford-Kenya pulled out from Matungu to back ANC while Ford-Kenya was supported by the other three in Kabuchai in its Bungoma stronghold. 

ANC, Ford-Kenya, Kanu and ODM are in turn supporting Wiper in the upcoming Machakos senatorial by-election of March 18. 

So what has changed since Tangatanga’s initial euphoria when they beat ODM in Msambweni and defeated Jubilee in two ward by-elections in Murang’a and Naivasha in December last year? 

State power and resources were clearly at play last week. Still, a lot can change in two months. The BBI “spillover effect” is one, especially the recent landslide validation by County Assemblies in which Tangatanga came out as the big losers.

By retaining the Matungu seat, ANC’s Musalia Mudavadi passed a critical litmus test in his quest for primacy in the Western region, and for the presidency, too. He also wanted to make a big statement to second-placed ODM, which considers Luhyaland as a stronghold. 

Similarly in the case of Ford-Kenya’s Moses Wetangula, his hold at the political high table risked being made meaningless if his candidate in Kabuchai lost to a UDA upstart. Indeed, Mudavadi and Wetangula campaigned on a platform of ‘Mulembe’ solidarity. 

In London and Hell’s Gate wards, it was a straight showdown between Jubilee and UDA. It was the first time the two came into direct confrontation. (UDA did not front a candidate in Eldoret's Huruma ward following a promise DP William Ruto had made not to oppose the Jubilee candidate. However, local Tangatanga foot soldiers opted to support the The New Democrats candidate there). 

Embarrassing loss

For Jubilee, winning Hell’s Gate while losing London ward was little consolation. After all the fuss the State and its agents had made of this London ward, losing it was very embarrassing.

Not even the withdrawal of ODM and Kanu candidates in the ward in favour of Jubilee could make the party win. 

Clearly there’s something very wanting in Jubilee’s ground game. Or something very toxic has poisoned their remaining strongholds and the party’s leadership is helpless to turn things around. 

Jubilee couldn’t even mobilise a respectable turnout in Hell’s Gate and Huruma wards where it won, leave alone London ward.

The other day, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru warned against actions that would make the regionalising of Jubilee a fait accompli. She had a point. 

Her warning came after former deputy secretary-general Caleb Kositany was kicked out amid threats that DP William Ruto would be evicted from his official residence. 

It’s highly unlikely Waiguru would have any truck with Tangatanga. What she was probably saying was that these pointless sideshows are not doing the party any good.

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A certain Dr Stephen Karanja, speaking for some group called the Catholic Doctors Association, has told Kenyans not to take the Covid-19 vaccine. 

Mmm... Catholic doctors? What's that again? Which is this medical science they practice that must be certified by religion? 

Such characters are giving Catholicism a bad name. They are even a threat to health. 

I recall them also opposing the rollout of the human papillomavirus vaccine for girls and also a tetanus vaccine for women. 

Their latest insinuation that the Covid-19 vaccines are linked to Bill Gates and his supposed desire to expand his fortune is too embarrassing to dwell on.

Thank you Archbishop Anthony Muheria for setting the record straight that Covid-19 vaccines are safe and should be welcomed by every right-minded citizen.

@GitauWarigi