The tough job for Raila’s campaign team for AUC post

Raila Odinga’ s bid for the African Union Commission chairperson started in earnest this week when it was officially launched by President William Ruto at State House, Nairobi, on Tuesday. 

The regional presidents who graced the launch included the Chair of East African Community and President of South Sudan, Salva Kiir Mayardit. Others were Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, Samia Suluhu of Tanzania. Somalia, Burundi and Rwanda sent representatives.

Former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, who was present when Mr Odinga first announced the bid earlier in the year, and former Tanzania President Jakaya Kikwete were there too.

Kikwete's presence was of particular significance as it allayed the fears of his intention to run against Mr Odingafor the same position (actually, the window for submitting bids is long closed). 

Mr Odinga was therefore, unveiled and presented to the rest of Africa as a candidate of the Eastern African regional bloc. The AUC Chairperson’s post is expected to fall vacant by February 2, 2025 when the incumbent, Moussa Faki's second and final four-year term comes to an end. The Chadian has had a distinguished service at the helm of the AUC since 2017.

A number of people, including seasoned diplomats and analysts have written commentaries on the complexities of the AUC elections, with many of them painting a gloomy picture of Mr Odinga's chances of clinching the seat.

The main argument has been based on the fact that Mr Odinga's worthy competitor, Djibouti's Foreign Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, appears to be a front runner on at least three accounts.

First, he is a highly experienced diplomat who understands the bolts and nuts of lobbying, having served as his country's Foreign Minister since 2005.

Second, Djibouti is a Francophone country, and therefore, their candidate is likely to scoop all the votes from fellow French speaking countries.

The third argument is that as an octogenarian by January next year, Mr Odinga is clearly in his retirement years and has no business trying to chart a path for the young African population whose aspirations he does not share in. By contrast, Youssouf will be turning 60 late 2025.

Tremendous experience in leadership

These are, without a doubt, plausible arguments, but by no means do they undermine Mr Odinga's competitiveness as a candidate.

There are several other considerations that equally give the ODM party leader a head start in this race. Mr Odinga's relatively advanced age comes with tremendous experience in leadership and the fight for democracy across Africa. Besides being a sworn Pan-Africanist, his name is synonymous with justice, human rights and democratic leadership.

Mr Odinga has equally had an opportunity to work as Africa Union's high representative for infrastructure, a position that gave him incredible exposure to the workings of the AU as well as personal connections with financiers, presidents and other key stakeholders in the continent.

Mr Odinga's manifesto speaks to the issues of quality education, markets for African products, climate change and mitigation, energy, infrastructure and Africa Continental Free Trade area, among others.

These are issues that are at the very core of Africa's development, sovereignty, diplomacy, and her relations with other continents as trade partners. The manifesto is particularly emphatic that Africa must boost its trade and negotiate for better prices as an entity.

Africa has a total of 55 sovereign states which enjoy voting rights. To win, a candidate requires at least two-thirds of the votes. Of the 55 countries, between 21 and 26 are listed as francophone. There is no exact number because some of them like Mauritius, Comoros, Seychelles, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, Rwanda, Morocco speak other languages in addition to French.

Besides, three West African countries, namely, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea were suspended from the African Union after their democratically elected leaders were toppled by military juntas.

Out of the remaining Francophone, Burundi, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo are members of the East African Community, and are therefore, likely to vote as a bloc for Mr Odinga. That leaves Francophones with a combined force of between 15 and 20 countries, depending on where the multi-lingual members choose to vote. 

Going by previous experience, the Francophones bloc will most likely go with Youssouf. The Anglophone group may favour Mr Odinga. Algeria, Egypt and Libya in the north are pure Arabic countries. Arab countries happen to be predominantly Muslim just like most West and Central African Francophones are.

In view of the protracted Israeli-Hamas war in the Gaza, and the renewed escalation of fighting with Hezbollah in the contested Golan Heights, Israel-Lebanon border and Syria, and the fact that Kenya is seen as supporting Israel, the Arabic speakers will most likely vote for Youssouf.

Strategic diplomatic offensive

Taking into consideration all the Francophones, Anglophones and Arabic speakers, Youssouf could get between 18 and 23, while Mr Odinga could get 25. 

In my view, the game changers in this contest will be the six Lusophone (Portuguese speaking) countries, which are Angola, Cape Verde, Guinea Bissau, Mozambique, Sao Tome and Principe and Equatorial Guinea. There are possible scenarios with regard to Lusophones.

If Angola and Mozambique vote with SADC, then Mr Odinga could leverage his friendship with Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa to influence the two countries to vote for him. That will shore up his numbers to 27, leaving the four to push up Youssouf's votes to between 22 and 27.

In this case, there will be a tie. If all the six Lusophones vote for Youssouf, he will get between 24 and 29, in which case he will be ahead of Mr Odinga by at most four votes.

On the other hand, if all the six Lusophones vote for Mr Odinga, he will have 31 votes. This will still fall short of two-thirds of the votes required for an outright win.

I foresee repeat votes. There is also the invisible factor of donors and development partners. It has been argued that one of the reasons the African Union cannot negotiate effectively with the Global North on issues of trade imbalances, illicit financial flows from Africa, mispricing of African resources, payment for services and migration is the fact that it relies to a great extent on donations for its budgetary support.

The development partners will therefore, be very keen on the election process to ensure that they get a person who will be agreeable to their terms of engagement with the African Union. 

In conclusion, I think the race is still too close to call. Most likely, the vote is headed to a tie or no clear winner in the first round. It will take a very competent team for Mr Odinga to get an outright win over his equally experienced and connected competitor from Djibouti.

The team must not leave anything to chance. They must roll up their sleeves and go on a strategic diplomatic offensive in all parts of Africa. Most importantly, they need to know which diplomatic levers to tap.

Professor Ongore teaches at the Technical University of Kenya. He is currently based in Colorado, USA; [email protected]