Russia's tactics: Blockchain advocacy or AI disinformation in Kenya's elections?

By utilising blockchain technology and artificial intelligence, Kenya's Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is taking a risk and changing the voting environment. Kenya wants to offer real-time polling results, drawing inspiration from Sierra Leone's innovative usage of blockchain in 2018, which strengthened vote tallying.

The objective is to increase confidence and guarantee openness in the electoral process. In democratic regimes, the use of emerging technologies could redefine citizen rights and increase the weight of each vote. 

Blockchain provides a 'trustless' solution to four major problems in the electoral domain: high prices, security, transparency, and constitutional restrictions. Yet, hurdles persist. Establishing a legal framework recognising blockchain as an unalterable truth in voting is imperative.

Regulations must safeguard network independence, voter privacy, and equal representation, whilst considering liability, code updates, and accountability.

Some people believe that Russia's support for blockchain technology will help to disintermediate the Kenyan political process and increase confidence, while others worry that it is just a front for AI-driven disinformation campaigns. 

In May 2017, Ahmed Ben Ayed put forth a proposal for an electronic voting system that would guarantee safe, dependable, and anonymous elections by utilising blockchain technology, which is open source. This tactic would increase voting turnout while also enhancing public confidence in the administration.

It is crucial to remember that if there are fundamental problems with voter registration, voting process manipulation, or outcome manipulation, blockchain technology cannot guarantee the integrity of an election.  

AI-powered algorithms can analyse voter data and trends to provide valuable insights for campaign strategies and targeted messaging. However, there are suspicions that Russia's true intentions may be to use these technologies as a means of disinformation and manipulation. 

As the nexus of technology and elections expands, understanding the motives behind Russia's involvement in advocating for blockchain and potentially disseminating AI-generated disinformation becomes imperative.

This convergence demands a vigilant examination of technological advancements intertwined with political interests, urging stakeholders to scrutinise Russia's actions through a nuanced lens that balances innovation with the preservation of electoral integrity and democratic values.

AI-powered disinformation and electoral Influence

Where AI meets information dissemination, significant concerns linger regarding AI-generated content's impact on public opinion, notably within electoral contexts. Kenya, with a history of election-related violence and foreign interference, offers a critical case study. 

During a period of review of Kenya’s 2022 elections using AI tracking tools to detect misinformation before an election, it was found that roughly 15 per cent of tracked social media posts contained false information.

This increased to 20 per cent following a significant judicial announcement. Survey results indicated that a considerable portion of respondents distrusted both ruling and opposition parties. 

Russian-Ukrainian conflict mentions were relatively low but included narratives on President Putin's congratulatory message to the Kenyan president-elect and food insecurity. However, an amplified story on social media about Kenya selling donated fertiliser from a Russian company was debunked as fake, aiming more at pushing a corruption narrative against the new administration than a foreign influence angle. The influence tactics used by Kenyan influencers mirrored those observed in Russia, including following trains, sock puppet accounts, and astroturfing. 

The involvement of Wagner Group, a Russian-linked mercenary group in Africa, raised questions about the interweaving connections between private actors, government agencies, and the Russian state's involvement.

Suspicions linger about Russia's alleged use of AI-powered misinformation in Kenya's elections, raising doubts about the reliability of information among voters. This calls for vigilant oversight and regulation to protect the integrity of democratic processes from external interference and disinformation campaigns. 

Deciphering Russia's intentions

Techniques to manipulate narratives and trick the social media algorithm borrowed from Russia were used by Kenyans. For example, through astroturfing, fake grassroots movements or organizations accounts were created to give the illusion of popular support for a particular cause or issue. By using sock puppets, social media accounts that are created using false identities or information, purport to be something or someone they are not. 

They can be used to amplify certain posts, hashtags or accounts, or to attack or discredit opponents. The predominant form of influence during the August 2022 election was home-grown, although the tactics used by influencers emulate those from other settings including Russia.

A representative sample survey of 2000 Kenyans eligible to vote undertaken three months ahead of the August 2017 poll found that 90 percent of respondents reported seeing false news, with 87 percent of people saying they had seen ‘deliberately false news’. This content included disinformation material created to mimic legitimate news content, with the badges of media houses like BBC, CNN, and NTV Kenya being misused to attach credibility to false news. 

Russia's purported advocacy for blockchain technology in electoral processes poses as an avenue for potentially enhancing transparency and security, however, amidst this facade of technological progress, suspicions linger about ulterior motives. Is it a genuine endeavour towards fortifying Kenya's electoral infrastructure, or a calculated strategy to influence outcomes through manipulative means?

A careful examination of Russia's actions calls for a comprehensive and impartial investigation, steering clear of presumptions or biases. It warrants a balanced perspective that considers the complexities of technological advancements within the context of political agendas, emphasising the need for transparency, accountability, and ethical usage of technology in electoral processes.

A prudent approach requires international cooperation, ethical guidelines, and regulatory frameworks. Such measures would not only ensure the safeguarding of democratic processes but also encourage responsible innovation while mitigating the risks posed by technological manipulations in electoral spheres. 

Safeguarding electoral integrity demands a unified approach involving governments, tech innovators, civil society, and international bodies. This collaborative front is essential to ensure transparency, combat disinformation, and protect the integrity of democratic elections globally. 

The complexities surrounding Russia's technological involvement in Kenyan polls underscore the need for vigilance, ethical usage of technology, and robust regulatory measures.

By fostering collaborative efforts aimed at preserving electoral transparency and countering disinformation, nations can collectively fortify the resilience of democratic processes against external interference, upholding the essence of free and fair elections worldwide.

Ms Orero is an advocate of the High Court of Kenya and founder of SafeOnline Women Kenya (SOW-Kenya).