Battle for Luhyaland: Inside the Ruto-Raila war in Western Kenya
President William Ruto and Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition leader Raila Odinga.
What you need to know:
- President Ruto leads Mudavadi, Wetang’ula and Lusaka in a bid to stop the orange party’s forays in Western.
- The Kenya Kwanza alliance is going all-out to change the political map in Luhyaland as it seeks to flip the voting patterns of the region, which is a stronghold of the veteran opposition leader and Azimio boss Raila Odinga.
President William Ruto’s latest tour of Busia County last weekend – barely four days after the visit of opposition leader Raila Odinga – raises political stakes in Western Kenya, a region that is historically allied to the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya boss.
The President’s move is strategic and so far, the most potent political assault on Odinga’s strongholds. Busia, which according to the Orange Democratic Movement’s secretariat leads all branches nationally in membership registration, is Odinga’s political base.
President Ruto’s plot is to gain entry into Busia via the two Teso constituencies. Luckily for the Kenya Kwanza leader, his political forays come at a time when some members of the Teso community are dispirited after one of their own, Sospeter Ojaamong’, left the governor’s mansion at the end of his second term. This, coupled with the lobbying for a Teso County championed by MPs Mary Emaase (Teso South) and Oku Kaunya (Teso North), has created an opportunity for Kenya Kwanza to capitalise on.
Former Busia Governor Sospeter Ojaamong. He has ditched Raila Odinga's ODM to join President Ruto's Kenya Kwanza.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi who, for many years has been viewed as the region’s political kingpin, divulges the inside scheme behind the Busia trips.
Noting that members of the Teso are more politically united than their Luhya counterparts, Mudavadi says the Kenya Kwanza leadership is making deliberate and targeted efforts to win over the Iteso.
“My experience over the last two decades is that the Iteso provide a crucial solid vote. Their vote counts, which is why we must do everything possible to lure them onto our side,” says Mudavadi of a community that has religiously supported Odinga’s presidential bids since 2002.
“Aware of the cosmopolitan nature of this county, we have strived to live together in peace, including entering into negotiated power-deals such as the one in 2012 that saw us allocate the most powerful slot of governor to the Teso minority,” observes Bonnie Mahaga, a peace and conflict resolution expert from Bunyala Sub-county in Busia.
In lobbying for a new county to be hived off Busia, Emaase and Kaunya have been arguing that their people are marginalised.
President William Ruto during a working tour to Emuhaya Constituency, Vihiga County on Tuesday, August 29.
But Mahaga says this is sheer political greed: “For the 10 years Ojaamong was governor, the issue of marginalisation never arose, so what has changed now that (Dr Paul) Otuoma (a Luhya) is in charge?” The developments have indeed placed Dr Otuoma in a very delicate situation. He wants a united Busia to execute his development agenda.
Also Read: The trouble within Raila's Azimio
Although classified as a development tour by the President, the heavy presence of Western Kenya’s political leadership, which included Mudavadi, Speaker of the National Assembly Moses Watang’ula and Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka, it gave the clearest clue of what to expect.
The presence of the Leader of Majority in the National Assembly, Kimani Ichung’wah, buttressed the fact that this was a coordinated team whose intentions were political.
This fact was confirmed in the targeted speeches at Machakus, where the interdenominational prayers were held, and thereafter in roadside rallies in Teso South and Teso Noth. Ruto reckons that Dr Otuoma has been “disturbing him a lot” with a chain of requests to fulfill his agenda.
“Msimpigie kelele saana mkijua anawatetea sana (don’t shout at him too much knowing very well that he has been busy trying to push through his agenda),” the President told residents.
The visits by the country’s political heavyweights have signalled the beginning of the Ruto-Raila scramble for Western Kenya ahead of the 2027 polls. Busia, for strategic reasons, is the President’s entry point for this battle.
Torn in between the Ruto-Raila battle is Dr Otuoma, who has to balance between party loyalty and cooperation with national government. And it doesn’t help the situation that the governor is linked to both political bigwigs – Ruto and Odinga, with whom he shares a maternal connection, or “Unyalego” – meaning their mothers hail from Alego in Siaya County. Dr Otuoma, who was once the National Chairman of the Orange Democratic Movement, has maintained his allegiance to his party. He, however, says has to work with the national government to deliver his campaign promises.
Ichung’wa notes that governors Anyang’ Nyong’o (Kisumu), James Orengo (Siaya) and Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay) work closely with the national government. Political analyst Henry Wabwire observes that Dr Otuoma appears reluctant to join the Kenya Kwanza bandwagon and at the same time disinterested in drumming up support for his ODM party.
“While he is opposed to premature campaigns and wants to focus on service delivery, which is a good thing, his middle ground stand is only bound to heighten the battle for Busia. Daktari must choose his company now and decide what is good for his people,” he says.
The charm offensive on members of the Teso community, who occupy two out of Busia’s seven constituencies, is not new. It is strategic and has been gradual over the years. Out of the many trips the Head of State has made to the county, most have been to Teso constituencies. President Ruto is scheduled to return to Teso South next month to launch an affordable housing project.
Ojaamong’, who climbed down to vie for a parliamentary seat but finished third in 2022 polls, has bolted out of ODM. There might not be much weight to attach to Ojaamong’s decision, but it is a pointer to the fact that voters in Teso are beginning to walk the same political path. Alive to the current onslaught, the local branch of ODM is torn in between instituting changes in the party’s leadership in the County Assembly and at the branch level.
Among those targeted is Deputy Speaker, Ronald Ochalu, whom Members of County Assembly (MCAs) allied to ODM want replaced, owing to his alleged divisive tactics, which members claim have given rival parties opportunity to “infiltrate and undermine” the Azimio La Umoja-One Kenya member party.
In a letter dated January 24, 2024 and addressed to Majority Whip, Tony Onyango Opondo, the party Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna warns the Busia MCAs against “ongoing schemes to remove the Deputy Speaker from office”. Curiously, Ochalu has been on the forefront in attacking the governor.
The ODM secretariat plans to convene a stakeholders’ meeting within “the next two weeks” to address “any underlying issue” in the county.
Amid the current frictions, Lusaka is more forthright. The former Senate Speaker observes that a fly, like other creatures, must perish and given the choice of facing death in a pit latrine or on a cow’s udder suckling milk. He would rather opt for the latter.
The import of this metaphor is that Dr Otuoma should lead his people to the land of milk and honey (government) and not that of misery (opposition). This is not a popularly agreeable notion among many – at least for now. However, the President and his troops want the people of Busia to embrace this position.
