President William Ruto and the politics of Mount Kenya region.
The United Democratic Alliance’s (UDA) party, which was a near religion in Mt Kenya region after sweeping most seats in the 2022 General Elections, now faces an uncertain future two years down the line.
As President William Ruto, who is the UDA party leader, moves on with plans to consolidate all the ruling Kenya Kwanza Alliance affiliate parties into one behemoth contest formation for the 2027 General Election, Mt Kenya which constitutes 47 per cent of his rule, is bolting out as if threatened by political leprosy.
Impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who was seen as representative of Mt Kenya interests in the ruling alliance, where he is the UDA Deputy party leader, faces an uncertain future as he fights in court to stop his replacement with Prof Kithure Kindiki.
"This will mean that Mr Gachagua will cease to hold any office in the party if disposed of as Deputy President and Prof Kindiki replaces him on an interim basis ahead of the resumption of grassroots elections that have since been suspended indefinitely," said UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar.
Mr Omar said the national elections will be resumed soon.
The Mt Kenya region’s UDA elections were slated to kick off on June 22, 2024, where Nyandarua and Tharaka Nithi were to vote for officials while on August 10, 2024, Kiambu, Embu, Meru and Murang’a counties were to follow suit.
On August 24, Nyeri, Kirinyaga and Laikipia were to close the Mt Kenya region chapter of officials, but the exercise was shelved after impeachment politics erupted and which culminated in the ongoing constitutional crisis as President Ruto works to replace his principal assistant, Mr Gachagua.
Political divorce?
Analysts say the relationship between Mr Gachagua and President Ruto is so broken that a political divorce before 2027 is inevitable.
Though Mr Gachagua had initially maintained that “we must belong together and speak in one voice in the Mountain for the benefit of President's second term," in weeks leading to his impeachment he had declared to chart a different political path.
In September, he declared in Kiambu County that there were plans for a Mt Kenya political formation and leaders who did not toe the line by December 2024 would be treated as ‘rebels’.
Already, sources in UDA indicate that plans are underway to expel Mr Gachagua from the party, especially if the courts confirm his impeachment.
"Once confirmed that he was properly impeached, part of attached ramifications is that he will be barred from holding public office for 10 years. That automatically ejects him out of his Deputy party leader position," said a source at UDA's communications department, who spoke in confidence.
Further, the source said "Mr Gachagua even if retained by the courts will never have a working relations with the president who is the party leader".
Murang'a Senator Joe Nyutu on Thursday told Nation.Africa that "without Gachagua in UDA, it means Mt Kenya is out of the party too...that is the reality raging on the ground".
Mr Nyutu said, "Without Mr Gachagua then it means Prof Kindiki might be the new Deputy party leader who will be tasked to convince the region to support President Ruto's second term bid without a regional party".
He added: "The remaining senior voices in UDA include National assembly majority leader Kimani Ichung'wa who will be trying to help Prof Kindiki achieve the goal of a partyless Mt Kenya for the 2027-2032 contest".
Former UDA Secretary-General Cleophas Malala told Nation that "Mt Kenya should use the current experience in UDA to make a decision about how to package itself for 2027 and into future".
"I don't want to be seen as dictating to the region on how to package itself, but as a friend I cannot wish area voters to risk again. Once bitten be twice shy," he said.
Githunguri MP Gathoni wa Muchomba said: “Mt Kenya has shown signs of rebelling and by 2027, we will be in a political formation that values strengthening of democracy and stands for aspirations of our people."
Mr Ichung'wa on Wednesday told Spice FM in an interview: "The region will not agree to be herded into isolation and must unite with other communities in the country to pursue power for the national good instead for self-serving tribal goals".
He said the region must belong to the wing that will be carrying all Kenyans on board, aptly interpreted to mean campaigns of a partyless Mt Kenya will persist.
"As is clear that there is daylight and darkness, Mt Kenya will never again enter a political contest without its own political party. This means that UDA will not be an option once 2027 final bell rings," said Kangema MP Mr Peter Kihungi.
He added the region had a history of having its own political party and 2027 will be no different.
Such declarations throw cold water on president Ruto's efforts to retake Mt Kenya, a task he easily did in 2022 when he whitewashed the then area kingpin Mr Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee Party.
In the elections, the Ruto-Gachagua ticket took 87 per cent of Mt Kenya votes, Mr Kenyatta as the outgoing President and area kingpin only managing 12 per cent for the Azimio candidate Raila Odinga.
The National Democrats party leader Thuo Mathenge on Thursday told the Nation that, "political parties being special purpose vehicles in the power contest, never again will the Mt Kenya region go into an election without an own party".
However, Mbeere North MP Geoffrey Ruku, who supported Mr Gachagua’s recent impeachment, said what this region needed was the development and not politics of kingpins and chieftains “that have made us build individuals instead of livelihoods of our people".
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua addresses the media at his official resident in Karen, Nairobi on October 7, 2024.
He said he will remain a strong advocate of development over politicking hence why he opts for nationalism instead of regionalism.
Ndaragwa MP George Gachagua told the Nation that "as of now the issue of political parties and sequential succession power games should not arise since the social contract at play is service to the electorate".
But Kiambu Senator Mr Karungo Thang'wa, a supporter of the impeached deputy president, said "going into 2027 while in UDA that is owned by President Ruto or anyone else is not an option.”
"The only available option is that we will travel with our bus and meet at the destinations as self-ferried passengers. We are racing against time to put our house in order and convene a regional self-consciousness declaration that will set us off to decide where to belong, who to be our battalion leader as well as the components of the interests to pursue," Mr Thang'wa said.
Spoilt for choice?
However, political scientist Gasper Odhiambo feels that Mt Kenya has been in good stead of politics but sabotaged itself by leaders’ inability to reason as a team.
"The issue of Mt Kenya not having its own political party. It is a theatre of the absurd. The region is spoilt for choice as to where to belong since most of its senior politicians own political parties. The issue that is persecuting the region is an attitude of looking down on each other," he said.
Other politicians with own political parties include Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee Party, Martha Karua (Narc Kenya), Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri's The Service Party (TSP), Mwangi wa Iria (Usawa kwa Wote Party), Peter Kenneth's National Democratic Congress, William Kabogo's Tujibebe Wakenya Party, Peter Munya's Party of National Unity...
"This is the fallacy in Mt Kenya politics. They are talking of being in dire need of their own political party but these parties were in place way back before the 2022 General Election and continue to exist. It is only that the area politicians don't dialogue to agree and Mr Rigathi Gachagua saw no reason to take caution," he said.
Mr Odhiambo added that "unless the decision to belong to one special purpose vehicle is people-driven, if politicians will be the ones to offer guidance, then you can expect the politics of divisions to derail the agitation".
Jubilee Party Secretary General Mr Jeremiah Kioni said the ruling Kenya Kwanza Alliance has succeeded in arousing intense regional passions.
Jubilee Party secretary-general Jeremiah Kioni. A notice released by the party cites a growing number of applications for the extension of the nominations deadline a third time.
Mr Kioni said witnessing what President Ruto is able to do using political parties' numbers in his control will make many regional leaders think twice before joining his side ahead of the 2027 elections.
"We have witnessed what he can do with numbers under his party as well as those under his allies. We have seen him push Finance Bill 2024 in a manner that nearly burnt the country," Mr Kioni said.
Former Gatanga MP Mr Nduati Ngugi told Nation Africa that “these UDA grassroots elections if resumed will not attract seriousness befitting it's 2022 conquer of the mountain".
He said that initially, he had intended to vie for Murang'a County's organising secretary post "but with the hostility now being directed the President's way as well as the unpopularity of his government makes associating with UDA (in Mt Kenya) a risky affair".
