Poll: DP Ruto's UDA is most popular party, but Raila more likely to win election today

William Ruto

Deputy President William Ruto addresses a rally in Machakos town on December 1, 2021.

Photo credit: DPPS

Deputy President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is the most popular party in Kenya, but opposition leader Raila Odinga would win the presidential elections if they were held today.

Raila Odinga

ODM leader Raila Odinga joins Kisumu residents in celebration of Kisumu City Christmas street festival on December 24, 2021. 

Photo credit:  Tonny Omondi | Nation Media Group

This is according to a new survey by polling firm Infotrak, which found that the 2022 election will be a two-horse race between Raila and Ruto.

 Infotrak poll raila ruto uda election
Photo credit: Courtesy | Infotrak

According to the survey released on Monday, Odinga's approval rating grew from 13 percent in December last year to the current 33 percent.

It shows that his popularity has increased whereas that of his political rival Dr Ruto has decreased.

The DP's popularity has decreased from 44 percent in December 2020 to 34 percent in November 2021, and then to the current 32 percent as at December 2021.

The poll also found that the most preferred presidential candidate for OKA (One Kenya Alliance) is Musalia Mudavadi.

Musalia Mudavadi

ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi.

Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group

Ruto popular in Mt Kenya

The poll by Infotrak shows that DP Ruto remains the most popular presidential candidate in Central Kenya with 42 percent, followed by Mr Odinga at 16 percent. 

It also found that Mr Odinga is more appealing to male voters than female ones, with most women supporting the candidature of the DP. 

DP Ruto is also more attractive to 18-24 and 25-35 year-old voters.

While releasing the report today, Infotrak CEO Angela Ambitho revealed that both Dr Ruto Mr Odinga have almost equal popularity in urban and rural areas.

Decline of Jubilee 

Infotrak popular parties uda odm jubilee
Photo credit: Courtesy | Infotrak

According to the survey, the two most popular political parties in the country are UDA and ODM.

UDA leads with 33 percent followed by ODM at 32 percent. The ruling Jubilee Party is third (2 percent) followed by Wiper Party (2 percent) and ANC (1 percent). 

Jubilee's popularity declined the sharpest in the period between December 2020 and December 2021 from 37 percent to 2 percent. 

Infotrak popular parties uda odm jubilee
Photo credit: Courtesy | Infotrak


The poll was conducted between December 17-21 this year.

It covered 26 counties from all the eight regions in the country.