ODM leader Raila Odinga addresses journalists flanked by former Mombasa governor Ali Hassan Joho (left), former Kakamega governor Wycliffe Oparanya (right) and other party members at the Convent Hotel in Nairobi on April 11, 2024.
History seems to be repeating itself in the clamour for political leadership within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Those who led an onslaught against the so-called 'old guards' in the Orange Party over a decade ago are now facing a similar threat from youthful politicians.
Political analysts predict that the young leaders' push for generational change could shake the ODM to its core.
Former Mombasa governor and deputy party leader Hassan Ali Joho is one of the targets.
As expectations mount that ODM leader Raila Odinga will secure the chairmanship of the African Union Commission, an intense succession race has broken out within his party, with two camps emerging - one allied to Mr Joho and the other leaning towards former Kakamega governor Wycliffe Oparanya, who like Mr Joho is also a deputy leader.
Other powerful politicians in the party, including National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi, Nairobi senator and party secretary-general Edwin Sifuna, are also vying to succeed Mr Odinga at the helm of the Orange Party.
Last Saturday, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino also declared that he would lead a third force to oust the old guard from the party leadership, offering what he called a "breath of fresh air".
His entry into the race mirrors a similar move made by Mr Joho and former Budalang'i MP Ababu Namwamba in 2013 when they contested the party's top leadership posts with the intention of removing the older politicians from party positions.
ODM candidates for the position of secretary general Dr Agnes Zani (left) and Ababu Namwamba after a meeting with the National Elections Board at the party headquarters in Nairobi on February 18 2014. Photo/PHOEBE OKALL
This time around, Mr Joho is being given a dose of his own medicine by the youthful Babu Owino, who has declared his intention to challenge him for the ODM party chairmanship on the basis of providing fresh and new leadership.
Both leaders appeal to different constituencies across the country and their brand of politics is equally revered by the youth for its flamboyance, oratorical skills and ability to connect with the masses.
Coupled with unwavering loyalty to Mr Odinga, pundits, leaders and ODM members are keen to see which of the two will emerge as the youth favourite and usher in a generational change in the party should Mr Odinga move to Addis Ababa.
Mr Joho has already developed a nationwide campaign programme aimed at boosting membership recruitment and popularising ODM.
After launching his rallies in Homa Bay on May 3, he is expected to tour Taita Taveta, Busia, Vihiga, Garissa, Wajir, Narok, Uasin Gishu and Samburu counties.
Mr Owino has countered by launching his nationwide rallies from Kisumu, specifically Nyalenda Estate where he was born and raised.
The two-term MP for Embakasi East, who was previously linked to Mr Joho's camp, is charting his own course.
With Mr Joho from Coast and Mr Oparanya from Western, there has been a strong push by Nyanza leaders to have one of their own try to succeed Mr Odinga.
“When it comes to sharing political spoils and rewards, we are told that we are still young and have to wait. A time is coming when young people will not be mistreated in the country under the leadership that we will have. That is why a third camp will come up irrespective of the fights within the party. We will not wait to be given, we will take what we want and fight for our interests,” said Mr Owino.
The MP strongly believes that he is one of the most popular politicians who enjoys massive support across the country dating back to his days as a student leader at the University of Nairobi where he was sworn in four times.
He also believes that a good leader must be intelligent, passionate and possess political acumen that enables him or her to win the hearts of the masses across the country.
He discloses that his entry into the succession race has already earned him the traitor tag with his opponents in the party accusing him of being a Kenya Kwanza sympathiser, just like it happened to the Team Fresh and the ‘Young Turks’ led by Joho back then.
Political coat tails
“You know me very well that I can never do that because I do not support President Ruto’s ideals. I have a thick skin and I will chart my path even if I remain alone because my success will bring hope to the young people in Nyalenda slum in Kisumu,” said Mr Owino.
He warned leaders he accused of hanging on Mr Odinga’s political coattails that their days are numbered as the decision will be up to the voters.
But analysts say that even as Mr Owino tries to climb the ladder, he has a lot to learn from the ‘Young Turks’ who had tried to ascend to the top similarly.
In a move seen then as a major realignment within the ODM stronghold of Luo Nyanza, more than nine MPs in the ‘Young Turks’ camp came up with what they termed as the ‘Sega Declaration’ to give their full support to the then Kisumu Central MP Ken Obura’s bid for the Secretary General’s seat ahead of the party elections.
Those in the group included Mr Obura, Millie Odhiambo (Suba North), Mr David Ochieng (Ugenya), Mr Junet Mohammed (Suna East), and Gladys Wanga (then Homa Bay Woman Rep).
Others were former MPs Mr George Oner (former Rangwe MP), Mr Jared K’Opiyo (Awendo), Mr Silvans Osele (Kabondo Kasipul), Mr Agustino Neto (Ndhiwa), the late Ken Okoth (Kibra), and Rose Nyamunga (Kisumu Woman Representative).
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According to them, the party lost in the March 2013 general elections because Mr Odinga’s inner circle of key advisers, composed of the old guards, messed up their bid during the January party primaries whose shambolic outcome led to some defections.
The old guard
However, Mr Odinga and the old guard would then reign in on the leaders forcing some of them to drop out of the camps for political survival, while those who declined never got elected to their party positions and others lost in the 2017 General Election after a new wave swept them out.
Political analyst Dr Obora Okoth believes that Mr Owino should have handled things differently.
Whereas he feels that Mr Owino has the advantage of age on his side, Dr Okoth states the youthful MP is likely to face numerous challenges not only within the party but even externally.
For instance, he believes that politicians from Mount Kenya may not be comfortable with another vibrant Luo coming up, so he must change tack.
“His style is not well thought out, he should form allies with the old guard, get the right company and beef up his security. As it stands, he is a lone ranger and those who have tried it before never went far,” said Dr Okoth.
For Dr Okoth a combination of Mr Oparanya and Mr Owino will be a good one because the Luo will still feel part of the party.
The political analyst believes that Mr Oparanya stands a better chance compared to Mr Joho who to him cannot be trusted by the Luo-Nyanza constituency.
He warns that if Mr Odinga’s succession is not handled carefully it can sink the Orange party.
