Is it end of the road for ‘Sultan’ Joho?

When he pitched camp in Kwale for the Msambweni constituency by-election, Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho declared he would deliver the seat for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), and that party leader Raila Odinga’s presence on the campaign trail was not necessary.

Such was Mr Joho’s confidence that, when some tried to portray the contest as one between Deputy President William Ruto and Mr Odinga, ODM officials Junet Mohammed and Edwin Sifuna declared the race was too junior for their party leader.

Instead, Mr Junet and Mr Sifuna styled the competition as one between two deputies; Mr Joho, who is the ODM deputy party leader, and the DP.

A strong backer of Mr Odinga, Mr Joho in the lead up to the 2017 elections had courted a cult-like following in the region that saw him nicknamed Sultan — ruler — for fearlessly taking on President Uhuru Kenyatta, which saw him barred from presidential functions in the area. 

It’s only after the president’s truce with Mr Odinga that the governor returned to the good books of the President.  Mr Joho was essentially tasked, as the leader of the ODM campaigns, to defend the seat that fell vacant following the death of Suleimani Dori, and he campaigned with his populist bravado for Omar Boga.

Good optics

“I want to ask my party leader not to even set foot here in Msambweni. He should relax. We will show them (opponents) dust that they have never seen before,” Mr Joho declared in one of the campaign stops.  He hosted Mr Odinga twice in the constituency, and through a last-minute call, secured a brief meeting between President Kenyatta and Mr Boga in Liwatoni.

The photo opportunity of Mr Boga with the President made for good optics. It was a seal of approval that Mr Boga was the ‘government’ candidate.

But something went horribly wrong in the December 15 by election. Independent candidate Feisal Bader, who was backed by the DP, won the seat.

Mr Bader’s victory that Kwale Governor Salim Mvurya worked to deliver has now left Mr Joho with egg on his face. Both governors are serving second and final term in office and such local victories, besides bragging rights, are useful in launching one to the next seat on the national stage in the lead up to 2022 elections.  The failure has dented Mr Joho’s image and his rivals are taking advantage of the loss to dismantle his perceived political invisibility.

And they are mocking him that he had projected himself as a Coast supremo but the outcome of the vote has confined his influence to Mombasa.  Mr Mvurya said the win by Mr Bader demonstrates that Mr Joho cannot come in other leaders’ counties and dictate terms: “This is to teach him a lesson and make him respect other leaders in this region.” MPs Aisha Jumwa (Malindi) and Mohammed Ali (Nyali) said Mr Joho had built a false image of political invisibility but has no influence in the region.

Political career

“We are now coming for him here in Mombasa. We will ensure that this becomes the end of his oppressive leadership and his exit in 2022 will be the end of his era. People are tired of him. It is evident,” said Mr Ali. But Mombasa County ODM youth leader Moses Aran said Mr Joho’s influence and popularity in the region is still intact.

 “You cannot judge the governor’s influence based on a single by-election,” said Mr Aran who is also a nominated MCA in Mombasa.  “Some of those leaders who are castigating the governor got their seats because of the influence and help of Mr Joho. The likes of Aisha Jumwa should not even dare talk about Mr Joho as they know who helped them in their political career,” he added.

Mr Joho is yet to speak out on the loss. But even within his own back yard, a rebellion is brewing.

A section of MCAs in the Mombasa County assembly, elected through ODM, have since pledged to support for Dr Ruto. The MCAs have been castigating Mr Joho’s administration for micro-managing the assembly.

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