Wilmington, Delaware

On the eve of the elections in the US, the world saw the White House barricaded and businesses in major cities and towns boarded up in anticipation of post polls violence.

Kenyans both at home and in the US reacted to this differently.

For those in Kenya who have friends and relatives living in the Trump country, these were very ominous signs of an impending all-out racial and ideological war and they therefore urged their compatriots to run to airports and fly back home.

To them, it reminded them of long lines of Kenyans, especially those in Nairobi, headed to Machakos Country Bus Station trying to get a bus back to their rural homes before hell broke loose after past elections.

But Kenyans living in the US were largely unconcerned by this.

There was no frantic search for airlines leaving the US headed home. At the time of filing this report, most polling stations had closed with hardly any reported cases of violence and there were no indications that the day after elections was likely to degenerate into chaos. The question is why?

Ethnic marking

“I think that what triggers a "flee to shags" mentality in Kenya whenever post-election violence is predicted has more to do with our historic tendencies to evolve the political disagreement from a party level to a split along ethnic lines. This ethnic marking then makes even the most politically removed Wanjiku, Onyango etc. as an equal target for political retaliation through violence”, said Ron Imanene in Washington, DC.

“It is this anticipation of wanton destruction of property along tribal and opportunistic lines and the knowledge of the underwhelming response by the security forces that forces every man for himself and God for us all mentality,” he added.

Mr Imanene says that the US, on the other hand, is on a different plane. He argues that while the vote and the results of elections may be contested, the security mechanics at all levels right from the federal to the county are equipped to maintain law and order.

Independent systems

“This makes people have confidence that their security is assured. On the question of what happens if the results are contested, the American judicial and security institutions are still fundamentally independent and strong. They will kick in where need be. Taking precautions is a welcome personal responsibility, but fleeing out of the country can only be from overdrive of fear,” he said.

James Sang, a Kenyan resident of Baltimore Maryland, says that political protests are part and parcel of the American political DNA. From the civil rights movements of the 60s, to climate change, anti-war, feminist, gay rights, to the Black Lives Matter movements, Mr Sang argues, Americans have been marching.

“These protests are largely peaceful, save for a few that have attracted mob violence. Of late, however, armed white militias have joined the fray in many cities, and this has resulted in raised emotions and tension, thanks to Donald Trump who has spent his four years fuelling divisive politics,” Mr Sang said.

He says that, the result of this rhetoric from the President is that violence has permeated the otherwise peaceful BLM rallies. 

Mr Sang agrees that, for Kenyans, and immigrants in general, political violence is an all too familiar proposition given their heritage of dictatorships. He says that, even then, it is unnerving to see American businesses and government buildings boarded up in a country with a strong democratic heritage. Such scenes were unimaginable only a few years ago.

Not ready to leave

“But, having said that, we are not ready to pack up our bags and leave.  For starters, many immigrants do not involve themselves in the political protests. They are mainly spectators, partly due to the fact that some of them are non-citizens, and thus they don’t feel they are part of the political process. Most of them live in the suburbs, where these activities rarely take place,” he said. 

Prof Kefa Otiso, a Kenyan teaching at Bowling State University in Ohio, agrees that Kenyans are not packing up and going back home because the US has stronger institutions which can deal with any arising electoral violence.

“But more importantly, the cost of packing up and leaving increases exponentially with increasing distance. In short, the longer the distance between your origin and destination, the lesser the likelihood of packing up and leaving on a whim. Many of us also don't have a means of livelihood that can sustain us in Kenya. Not to mention the potential disruptions to our lives and cost of relocating entire families. So we just can't pack up and leave,” he said.

Prof David Monda of City University in New York says that the takeaway here is that strong institutions are important in any democracy.

“People have faith in the electoral system and in public safety to handle any pockets of disorder,” he said.