Climate change hits home as rivers and taps dry up

It is not a year yet since Kenya last experienced the El-Nino weather phenomenon, but where farmers expected a season of plenty soon after the heavy rains, the opposite is true as hundreds of thousands and their livestock suffer food shortages in at least 13 counties.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (Ocha) says the enhanced rainfall due to El-Nino was “favourable to most of Kenya because it replenished pastures, enhanced good harvest and replenished water sources”, but that now seems so long ago.

But it is not that long, actually. It rained excessively in some regions during the October-to-December 2015 short rains, and the March-to-May 2016 season, leading to flooding in parts of the country.

The 2016 short rains came late, forcing the meteorological department to warn that the shortfall might affect crop production and livestock farming. The deputy director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, Mr Samuel Mwangi, says that while there are rains pounding some areas of the country, the land is largely dry.

He says the country is currently witnessing two kinds of drought — hydrological and agricultural — both of which are causing disaster as water and food have become scarce.

“We had a near-total rainfall failure in the months of March and April in 2016 and farmers did not produce enough food,” he says. “Rains also started late in October while the rainfall pattern remains patchy.”

The late rainfall is an indicator of a poor harvesting season ahead, he says, adding that “crops may not mature”, so “we should prepare for food and pasture shortage”.

While farmers in the past used to keep a cropping calendar, it is almost impossible to do it currently due to this weather pattern shift, says Mr Mwangi.

His fears are confirmed by Prof Raphael Mwalyosi of the University of Dar es Salaam, who points out that some of the areas which used to receive a lot of rain are receiving just a few drops, agriculture has been affected, and wells are drying up. 

“Should the current climatic trends continue in the coming 15 to 20 years, the situation may worsen if no mitigation measures will have been put in place,” warns Prof Mwalyosi, adding that “an increase in temperature of up to two degrees Celsius will worsen the effects of the phenomenon”.

INCREASED FREQUENCY OF DROUGHT

Due to climate change, there has been an increased frequency of drought while storms have become more severe, he says. When rains come they are ferocious, as it happened in 1997-98, 2002 and 2015.

Notably, from 1990, Kenya has witnessed at least seven major droughts: 1991-1992, 1995-1996, and 1998-2000, according to the International Federation for Red Cross.

Drought was also reported in 2004, 2005, 2010-2011 and the current one being witnessed in various parts of the country.

The Nairobi Water and Sewerage Company has announced that it will start rationing water for residents due to the prolonged drought that has affected water levels in Ndakaini Dam.

But, apart from drought and storms, more significant is the fact that thousands, probably millions, of people living along the coast of the Indian Ocean, not only in Kenya but also in Tanzania and other countries, may soon lack clean drinking water, says Prof Mwalyosi. This is because wells are gradually turning saline as a result of the rising sea level. The link is clear as when the interface between fresh and sea water rises, boreholes draw salty sea water.

Rivers, too, particularly at the point of confluence with the sea, have been affected, as have been islands. In the past 20 years or so, for instance, several islands in the Indian Ocean, specifically in Tanzania, have been submerged by rising sea level, says Prof Mwalyosi.

In the last 100 years, the rise of temperature has been about four degrees in some parts of Eastern Africa, although publications show that temperatures have risen between 0. 9-1.5 degrees.

Worse still is that scientists are predicting that by 2030 temperatures may rise by up to 2 degrees or more. This means severe effects of climate change which include more droughts, floods and diseases.

Even as campaigns to adapt and mitigate the changing weather patterns continue, only a few people understand that human activities have led to increased carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane, among other greenhouses, in the atmosphere, which have been attributed to increased temperatures.

These activities include continued use of fossil fuels in cars, factories and in electricity production, according to the National Geographic.

“Methane is released from landfills and agriculture (especially from the digestive systems of grazing animals), nitrous oxide from fertilisers, gases used for refrigeration and industrial processes,” reports the National Geographic.

Particularly, increased CO2 in the atmosphere comes from destruction of carbon sinks which include forests, the soil and the ocean. But there are also natural causes, which include volcanic eruptions and solar fluctuations.

“We are at the point where people need to adapt. There is need for diversification and shift in the kind of crops to plant, and buying of crop index insurance,” says Mr Mwangi, from Department of Meteorology.

“There is also need to develop policies to guide pastoralists on how to respond to weather patterns to minimise losses, as well as to develop a policy framework to guide public investment in the livestock value chain,” says Dr Hanningon Odame, the Executive Director for Centre for African Bio-entrepreneurship.

Kenya has formulated the Climate Change Bill 2014 — which was signed into law on May 13 last year — the Climate Change Response Strategy, and the Climate Action Plan, all of which are expected to address issues of climate change.

But there is more that the government needs to do. It needs, for instance, to formulate functional policies on land use, urbanisation, pastoralism and resource utilisation, as well as population control as these are some of the issues that have been attributed to immensely contribute to climate change.