How poor policies undermine 1.5C global climate aspirations

New report published on November 8 reveals that governments plan to double fossil fuel extraction in 2030 and, surpassing the permissible limits of 1.5°C warming threshold.

The 2023 Production Gap Report: “Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises “indicates that around 110 per cent more fossil fuels will be produced in 2030, which is more than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69 per cent more than would be compatible with 2°C.

It provides newly expanded country profiles for 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. These profiles show that most governments continue to provide significant policy and financial support for fossil fuel production.

The report indicates that while 17 of the 20 countries featured have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions — and many have launched initiatives to cut emissions from fossil fuel production activities — none have committed to reducing coal, oil, and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

“Science says we must start reducing global coal, oil, and gas production and use now — along with scaling up clean energy, reducing methane emissions from all sources, and other climate actions — to keep the 1.5°C goal alive,”says Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author on the report and SEI scientist.

Given the risks and uncertainties of carbon capture,storage and carbon dioxide removal, the report recommends that countries should aim for a near-total phase-out of coal production and use by 2040 and a combined reduction in oil and gas production and use by three-quarters by 2050 at a minimum.

Despite being the root cause of the climate crisis, fossil fuels have remained largely absent from international climate negotiations until recent years. At COP26 in 2021, governments committed to accelerating efforts towards “the phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”. However, they did not agree to address the production of all fossil fuels.

Michael Lazarus, the lead author of the report and SEI US Centre Director, says COP28 could be the pivotal moment where governments finally commit to the phase-out of all fossil fuels and acknowledge the role producers have to play in facilitating a managed and equitable transition.

“Governments with the greatest capacities to transition away from fossil fuel production bear the greatest responsibility while providing finance and support to help other countries do the same.”

According to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, there is a need for credible commitments to ramp up renewables, phase out fossil fuels, and boost energy efficiency while ensuring a just, equitable transition.

“Governments’ plans to expand fossil fuel production are undermining the energy transition needed to achieve net-zero emissions, throwing humanity’s future into question,” says Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director.

While dissecting the findings of the new report, Alex Rafalowicz, the Executive Director of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative,  offers that governments need to negotiate a binding global plan for ending expansion of new coal, oil and gas projects and managing this transition through negotiation of a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty.

According to Tzeporah Berman, the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative chair, there has been minimal discussions about navigating a rapid, global phase-out of fossil fuels while continuing to manage sustainable development.

At COP27, she explained that fossil fuels have not been directly addressed in the UN climate talks.

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