Fossil fuel treaty remains elusive ahead of COP29

As the dust settles after rigorous COP28 negotiations, the one-million-dollar question that activists are asking is whether decades of insufficient action at climate talks will in the future strengthen the call for a fossil fuel non-proliferation Treaty before the next COP in Azerbaijan.

The Fossil Fuel Non-proliferation Treaty Initiative is a civil society campaign to create a treaty to stop fossil fuel exploration and expansion and phase-out existing production in line with the targets of the Paris Climate Agreement while supporting a just transition to renewable energy.

It is now emerging that after a long battle over the final text, climate negotiations in UAE came with a weak outcome on transitioning away from fossil fuels - the main cause of the climate crisis and the biggest issue at the just-ended COP. Due to the barriers to negotiating and financing a fossil fuel phase-out within the UNFCCC, a strong movement has gained momentum, with 12 nations calling for the negotiation of a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.

At least four countries namely Palau, Colombia, Samoa and Nauru endorsed the proposal in Dubai. Mr Alex Rafalowicz, executive director of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, said: "Having the words 'fossil fuels' in the text is an important political signal, but it's a far cry from the 'historic' outcome we were all calling for - it is the weakest we could have gotten, it has all the intentionally vague words planted to deceive us and it is still very reliant on all the unproven technologies we must avoid.”

He added: “Those most responsible for the climate crisis did not bring finance, technology, or actions to start phasing out fossil fuels, instead they brought hollow hypocrisy that poisoned the talks just as they are poisoning life on Earth. The vested interests of a few did everything they could to drown out the voices of people and science.”

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said this would be an irreversible tipping point. The record number of fossil fuel lobbyists in UAE was proof that the industry is desperate to defend their interests at the expense of life. “They're merchants of death, but their days are numbered - and they know it," said Mr Rafalowicz.

While the UNFCCC will continue to be a critical forum to negotiate international climate policy, this COP outcome is seen by many as a clear sign that this process is not fit for managing and financing an equitable transition away from oil, gas and coal; and that it must be urgently complemented by a new international mechanism explicitly focused on phasing out fossil fuels - a Fossil Fuel Treaty.

"For 30 years this process has failed to face up to the core driver of the climate crisis. Today, that changes, but only because the people on the front lines held the line for the rest of humanity,” explained Mr Rafalowicz. The official observed that the fact that these countries could not go through because of the consensus-based process demonstrates the inability of the UNFCCC to deal with the urgency and the source of this crisis.

“That is why we need a complementary, non-consensus based process like a Fossil Fuel Treaty that allows those countries to come together to negotiate and to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels signalled in this agreement," added Mr Rafalowicz.

Mr Auimatagi Joe Moeono-Kolio, chief advisor (Pacific) of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, said: "After 30 years of climate talks, the COP28 outcome finally mentioned fossil fuels but fell short of setting a clear plan to phase them out.”

Mr Mitzi Jonelle Tan from Fridays for Future MAPA said: “We refuse to give up. There is hope, and with the COP process lagging on fossil fuels, we turn to the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty as a complement to the Paris Agreement to ensure and fast track a global just transition that leaves no one behind”

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