President William Ruto.
If you think about it calmly and rationally, the Kenya Kwanza coalition lost power on June 25, 2024, the first day of the Gen Z demos. From the moment that sniper rifle cracked and the head of the young man exploded, the government bled acceptance, support and the very legitimacy that powers its existence.
A government that needs the military to protect it from the people is not much of a government, it will take hard work to rebuild confidence. What I think is unacceptable is an uncontrolled implosion of government through the invasion of State House or some revolutionary tactics. Change must be constitutional and peaceful. If, when calm returns, government unleashes vengeance and goes back to business as usual – as many people are convinced will be the case – that is the moment to panic.
So what happened? What happened to the excitement and the promise, the energy, confident vibe of the campaign? Well, all the signs of a sullen, silent population were there. Some people were not comfortable with the glorification of rebellion, aggression, vilification and division which were a centrepiece of the KK campaign. Nine million of them stayed away and turnout was the lowest in 15 years, 65 per cent.
Margin of victory
The KK mandate was not a “there is nowhere you can take us” mandate. Its margin of victory was a membranous, 233,211 and the result was never accepted by the loser who alleged widespread improprieties. The raw parliamentary results did not give KK a majority in the National Assembly where it got 167 seats to Azimio’s 168. The majority was bought in from independents. This should have been a government of inclusion and reconciliation, not a swashbuckling, riding roughshod over everyone type.
KK did not keep its promises to the people. Central Province voted strongly for Kenya Kwanza; collectively the so-called Mt Kenya region gave KK almost twice as many votes as what the Rift Valley basket, President Ruto’s home ground, gave. In Central, folks argued that they would vote KK to keep the promise Mr Kenyatta made to Mr Ruto to support him. So the rumours of the revival of a supposed anti-Central 1980s policy of waging economic warfare on the region, whether true or not, is extremely toxic and the sense of betrayal it is likely to create will sow mistrust and potential instability.
Hell, it appears KK folks did not even keep promises amongst themselves, if those complaining about not getting chopper rides is anything to go by. It has no decorum, no respect for anyone, not even the hallowed offices of state that it occupies. When a senior state officer schedules a press conference only a few minutes after the President’s and goes on a wild attack against government processes that should not even be publicly discussed and is on the campaign trail sometimes, preaching division and sowing grievances, Kenyans cringe. Where is the gravitas, the mystique of state?
The impression is created that these are just ordinary politicians talking and behaving carelessly and fighting like wolves for toys, power and deals. When will they ever settle down and work? There is a crushing sense of disappointment and being let down by people in whom the public invested such faith and confidence.
Parents always imagine that the children, even when they are adults, can’t see their struggles. But they can see. They can see an insensitive elite that wears a watch that can feed a poor family for a whole year. They can see the circus in churches on TikTok where politicians are showing up with millions. They can see the glitzy homes and top-of-the-range gas guzzlers.
They can see the struggles of their parents, good, hard-working people who can barely make ends meet because of the load of taxes on their backs. And they know that the sacrifices their parents are making are not all going to sort out the debt burden, some are ending up in someone’s tacky garage or collection basket in some church. And they are making the decision: I’m not inheriting any of that.
Crisis of confidence
Kenya Kwanza faces a crisis of confidence and credibility. The people have given up on its waste and incompetence. President Ruto is somewhat where President Kibaki was when he lost the referendum in 2005. It was not business as usual and Mr Kibaki needed to present a different face to the people who had rejected his draft laws. Similarly, President Ruto, in order to repair his relations with the people, must rebuild confidence and trust, if that is possible. He must overhaul his government, have ministers with real ability and real authority, review his economic agenda, cut the wasteful budget and carry out a comprehensive corruption purge.
My greatest fear is what the naysayers are arguing: that nothing will change, a few glib statements will be made, a mad purge will follow against perceived enemies and then it is back to the good times - church harambees and the watches. And then next time it will not just be Gen Zs, but the parents, the aunties, the politicians, any Kenyan who can put fog on a mirror. And we will be lost as a stable, peaceful country.
Mr Mathiu, a media consultant at Steward-Africa, is a former Editor-in-Chief of Nation Media Group. [email protected].
