Political system determines the future

The wealth of nations is measured by comparing each country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per person (capita ). According to World Bank data (GDP per capita), Kenya’s GDP per person is about $2,000. Singaporean GDP per capita is now about $80,000, almost 40 times more than Kenya's.

In 1963, Singapore was about $400 while Kenya was at $100. Singapore was only four times more richer than Kenya in 1963 . It is now 40 times more richer.

China was poorer than Kenya in 1963. Its GDP per capita was $70 at the time. Currently it has a GDP per capita of about $12,000 — six 6 times richer than Kenya.

Think of a 10km marathon race that has many runners. At the 6km mark, the Kenyan runner is well behind the pack with Singapore, China and the rest well ahead!

There are many possibilities. Could it be as some have outrageously claimed that we, black Africans (and Kenya being part of this) are inherently “backward”? Those who hold this view like former US President Donald Trump (he called the region S***hole) might argue it is true black Africa is the most underdeveloped in the world.

The problem with this argument is that it has no historical or scientific basis. History has many examples of developed black African nations as compared with other civilisations as at that time – of course they declined as it happens with many others.

Egyptian and Ethiopian dynasties are good examples. But presently also Bermuda is a black majority country with GDP per capita of about $100,000; Bahamas is $28,000 together with Mauritius and Seychelles.

Botswana is also doing very well. In any event, humans having sprung from one singular source (whether you are a creationist like Yours Truly or an evolutionarist like Charles Darwin), there can never be a basis for natural genetically underpinned basis of under development. Humans are all equal and hence this theory is racist.

Could it be our weather?

Historian Ian Morris thinks so, in his book "Why The West Rules for Now - Patterns of History, and what they Reveal About the Future". He argues powerfully that it is not differences of races or culture, or individual striving of great individuals that explains the West domination. It is the effect of geography on ordinary people as they deal with crisis of resources, disease and migration. He shows historically economic progress has tended to be concentrated in the universe on a certain latitudinal belt that stretches from China to Europe. Of course this argument fails to explain why Dubai and other Arab states are rich and prosperous despite being outside this belt.

Could it be the form of government that Kenya chose for the last 60 years ?

Do autocracies (or dictatorships) render better economic growth than democracies ?

Indeed it has been argued dictatorships render faster and decisive economic decision making. It is also alleged dictatorships can create conditions for what Pluto argued in "REPUBLIC" for - rule by Philosopher King. Pluto argued "things are only shadows of eternal forms". Only a Philosopher is entitled to rule as he has the knowledge of the absolute truths, he said. A democracy may not produce philosophical leaders as "sophists "(unethical leaders with a sweet and convincing tongue ) can trick people into power. A true Philosopher loves the truth "in each thing", he said, and until Philosophers become Kings or King's love Philosophy, cities will never have rest from evil.

Well, this is a very complex question probably requiring a PhD thesis or a peer reviewed article in a well ranked journal. And one important issue would be to settle terms (what is a democracy? Does Kenya 60 years governance history fit into the definition of a democracy? How can you compare countries to ensure apples are measured against apples and not mangoes?)

Barring those complex questions, let us assume Kenya has been largely a democracy country in its historical evolution for the last 60 years but hasn't grown well economically.

On the other hand, China has been a dictatorship of some sort for the last 60 years but prospered. The now dead long-serving Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew was always viewed as an autocrat in the West but helped his country to be prosperous. Chile under dictator General Augusto Pinochet was governed by a murderous regime that toppled a democratically elected President Salvador Allende. But some analysts say dictator Pinochet made Chile the richest South American state. Nonetheless, it was a bloody regime whose effects continue to be felt in the country. India has been a democracy for the last 60 years but has limped economically in comparative terms - it's GDP per person is $2,700.

But there are many examples on the opposite direction. Japan and Taiwan have largely been democratic and prosperous for the last 6o years. Dictatorships of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Kim family in North Korea or Mobutu Seseseko in Zaire or daniel Moi in Kenya did a very poor job on matters economy unlike autocrats in Middle East. And regimes of some economically good autocracies in Middle East did not last long, like Libya.

Evidence on which governmental model delivers economic growth therefore seems mixed.

But there is one piece of evidence that seems clear and abundant - all sub-Africa dictatorships have led to economic retardation. Zaire (now DRC), Kenya, Somalia, Nigeria, Ghana- name them. Kenya has progressed better on matters economy even under the quarrelsome democracy we adopted in 2003 after KANU regime fell. Kenya GDP per capita had doubled since that year.

In conclusion, Kenya should never revert to dictatorship. We have fared better economically as a democracy if our post-independence 60 years analysis is anything to go by. Since 2003, Kenya has fared better than Jomo Kenyatta and Moi autocracies.

Democracies have inherent advantages that foster economy - stable legal regimes, personal freedoms that attract best talents and incentivising leaders to work harder to gain public confidence. Amartya Sen in his book "Freedom as Development " says development entails a set of interlinked freedoms . They include economic protection from adject poverty including unemployment relief, freedom of opportunity including access to credit and political freedoms in relations with the people.

Kenya only needs to harness these advantages of a democracy.

Irungu Kangata is the Governor of Murang’a County. Email [email protected]