Case of a limping nation, Covid-19 woes and an expensive BBI process

I have said before, and I repeat, I do not have a problem with the basic principles of the Building Bridges Initiative. I do with the unnecessary incessant politicising and horse trading in the name of BBI.

My very big worry now is given what we have been through this roller coaster year and will continue to go through for the foreseeable future can the country cope with and withstand a fully-fledged and bruising BBI debacle and referendum, both as a society and as an economy?

Let us look at some of the stark facts. We are into the second wave of Covid-19 and could face a third one early next year depending on how we celebrate the Christmas holidays. That has stretched our already frail public health infrastructure to its limits.

One big negative by product of this has been the diversion of human and medical resources from the other areas resulting in a stark rise of malaria, TB, measles and indeed most infectious diseases.

The country is much sicker than before and mortality rates are rising. In short the public health position of the country is precarious at best and heading towards the proverbial precipice at worse.

Massive contractions

It needs very careful hands on micro management. Then there is the economy. Remember this is a world phenomenon, not a local or even regional one and it is very contagious. The world economy has taken a big hit and has shrunk.

There have been massive contractions all round resulting in much reduced economic and commercial activity, businesses closing down or going bust, increased defaulting and numerous job and gainful employment losses.

Where businesses have survived, many are limping and certainly cutting costs like never before. It is going to be survival of the fittest.

When I last wrote about the horticulture industry, I showed clearly some did not make it and those that did had to take a serious haircut in order to continue. Both volume demand and prices went down and some costs, such as freight, went up.

Two million more Kenyans have fallen below the poverty line. That has a massive ripple effect because they have become dependents. That means that all of us who still have some form of livelihood have to support more of our relatives who have fallen into the dependency bracket.

The unemployment rate has doubled and one in three household businesses are not operating. People are literally hurting right left and centre.

This public health and economic fallout is the perfect mix for social volatility and potential unrest. To put it another way it is a veritable breeding ground for unrest.

Add into the mix that we are already in the run up to the 2022 elections. To be quite honest running this country at the moment and ensuring a modicum of stability is going to be a very, very tough assignment.

It is going to take a lot of careful and dedicated work just to steer the country through that. And lest we not forget this is a worldwide phenomenon.

And we have a host of other challenges. Corruption has been given a new breeding ground what with curfew and movement restrictions.

A colleague of mine was arrested for breaking curfew. I asked what happened.” I was given a bond” was the reply.” Did you get a receipt? “I asked. “Of course not” was the retort.

Expensive affairs

Look at the scams coming out about Covid-19 equipment supplies and even more shameful on some of what was donated.

And next year we are very likely to have a referendum on BBI. Referendums and elections are expensive affairs.

We have just gone cap in hand to the IMF for some budget support money complete with a number of conditions, which will raise some taxes. We are borrowing to just pay basics like salaries and wages and so on because the government’s revenue base has shrunk.

We have the cost of an election in 2022. Where on earth are we going to find the money for a BBI referendum?

I repeat, I am not against BBI. In the current dire circumstances, I cannot see how we are going to afford to conduct what is a huge logistical exercise. Remember that comes on top of all the many challenges we face.

I do not know the answer. I just know that sooner rather than later we are going to have to face this enormous hurdle.