Kenya-China diplomatic relations enter a new cycle in modern era

Certainly, 2023 was a good year — annus mirabilis — for Kenya-China diplomatic relations. On December 14, 2023, Kenya and China co-hosted a reception marking the 60th anniversary of Sino-Kenya diplomatic relations held at the iconic Global Trade Centre (GTC) in the heartland Nairobi.

In May 2023, Kenya joined the rest of Africa in celebrating the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Organization of African Unity (OAU), the precursor to African Union (AU).

The two important countries of the global South marked 60 years of diplomatic ties in the modern era.

According to the Chinese calendar, the 60th year has great significance and symbolism because it completes a sexagenary cycle called ganzhi or the Jiazi.

A person begins a new life after the 60th birthday. But the two partners have to make a strategic and bold choice to steer clear of the heightened geopolitical tensions of the new Cold War in the 21st century.

The August 2022 campaign and its immediate aftermath tested Sino-Kenya diplomatic relations in a public palpable way. In the run-up to the August General election, President Ruto, while campaigning for the presidency, denounced the loans of his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta, pledging to review Kenya’s relations with China.

A warning in February 2023 by the then Cabinet Secretary for Trade to deport the owner of the China mall at Kenyatta University, Lei Cheng, whipped emotions to a fever pitch.

However, in 2023 Kenya has since made bold tactical steps to win China, deepen their ties and ironing out sticky issues. A flurry of diplomatic activities have ensured the continuity of Sino-Kenya Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership, established in May 2017. Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei’s tweet reassuring foreign investors that the country’s investment regime was non-discriminatory was calming after the China Mall debacle.

In September 2022, President Ruto held consultations with the Special Representative of the Chinese Government on African Affairs Liu Yuxi. In October, 2022 Chinese Ambassador to Kenya Dr Zhou Pingjian conveyed a message of goodwill from President Xi Jinping to Dr Ruto.

Dr Ruto attended the 3rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing on October17-18, 2023 and met President Xi. On December 14, President Xi sent a congratulatory message to President Ruto on the 60th anniversary of the establishment of China-Kenya diplomatic relations. In the coming sixty year cycle, China and Kenya should train their focus on seven areas of cooperation.

First, they have to invest in research on their historical ties. Sino-Kenya relation is a multi-generational engagement that predates European colonialism in Africa. Kenya-China ties date back to over 600 years when the Chinese navigator Zheng He made seven voyages to the coast of east Africa. Today, as a result of these historical ties, Kenya is home to an indigenous Kenyan-Chinese population mainly in Lamu County. In the modern era, China became the fourth country to open its embassy in Nairobi on December 14, 1963, two days after Kenya’s independence. Back in 1971, Kenya supported the restoration of China’s seat and veto in the United Nations.

Second, China and Kenya should work to strengthen their ties in development within the framework of the Kenya Vision 2030, President Ruto’s the Bottom-up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), African Agenda 2063 and the United Nations Agenda 2030 on Sustainable Development Goals.

Third, Kenya and China need to deepen their trade relations. China is Kenya’s leading trading partner. The value of Sino-Kenyan trade before the outbreak of Covid-19 reached an all-time high of $192 billion, up from $185 billion in 2018. Kenya should maximize on market access provided by the six bilateral trade agreements signed in January 2022, which focus on removing tariffs and other trade and nontrade barriers.

Fourth, while managing its debts to multilateral and bilateral creditors, Kenya and China should enhance their financial investments. Today, 106 Chinese companies are operating in the country, with nearly 95 percent of the workforce being Kenyans. Chinese firms employ more than 50,000 Kenyans.

Fifth, China should continue to invest in infrastructure to connect Kenya and Africa to the global markets. In the next decade, Kenya should partner with China to complete the 1,293 kilometre Mombasa-Malaba Standard Guage Railway (SGR) linking Kenya to Uganda and beyond; the proposed 1,350 kilometre long Lamu-Nadapal SGR line to link the Port of Lamu to the South Sudan border point of Nadapal; and the 700 kilometer Nairobi-Moyale line to link Kenya and Ethiopia.

Six, Kenya should innovatively tap into the tourist market in China, the world’s top spender on tourism with a total expenditure of $261 billion Sh26.4 trillion. China is Kenya's sixth biggest tourism source market, contributing 5.5 percent of total tourist arrivals.

Seven, to turn Kenya’s youth bulge into a blessing, China needs to expand training opportunities for Kenyans. Since 2015, China has provided around 67,000 training opportunities for Kenya.

Finally, framing Sino-China relations in the next sixty years will be the tripod policy structure defined by the Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GDI) and Global Civilizational Initiative (GCI). The partners should work together to on threats to and to promote green growth and confront the effects of climate change, and threats to public health and global peace.

- Professor Peter Kagwanja former Government Adviser (2008-2013), and currently Chief Executive at the Africa Institute (API), Adjunct Professor at the University of Nairobi and the National Defence University—Kenya (NDU).