It’s Kalonzo’s moment. Will he seize it?

Last Wednesday, when Wiper's Kalonzo Musyoka, Kanu's Gideon Moi, Narc-Kenya's Martha Karua and Cyrus Jirongo announced a new coalition-kind-of under the old One Kenya Alliance (OKA) name, that wasn't the big deal.

The all-important detail was the revelation by the media that Kalonzo was in talks to join Raila Odinga's Azimio movement.

The Daily Nation reported that a committee comprising representatives of both sides are hammering a grand deal, with President Uhuru Kenyatta's blessings. This could turn out to be a game changer.

No less a turning point was OKA's brisk trashing of any chances of a deal with the UDA-controlled Kenya Kwanza Alliance (KKA). When asked if KKA was a coalition option, Kalonzo was dismissive. "Are they Kenya Kwanza or Kenya Kwisha?" Jirongo was heard to mutter in the background: "Hiyo itakuwa shida (that’s a problem)."

No question about it, Kalonzo is the biggest and most senior fish in this new OKA pond. And with the clear battlelines drawn between Azimio and KKA formations, an unaffiliated Kalonzo is the most sought-after politician in Kenya right now, for obvious reasons.

Everybody is hanging onto his every word – and move. The whole country is keenly aware that he almost certainly holds the key to the outcome of the coming election, depending on which side he'll support. Talk of kingmaking!

Crowds waving placards

The options facing Kalonzo are stark. He can go all the way to the ballot as the Wiper presidential candidate and compete with the two big formations.

That's what the carefree Wiper crowds waving placards during Kalonzo's January 27-29 Ukambani tour were telling him to do.

He played along, partly because as a politician he craved to hear those calls but more so because it left his Azimio and KKA rivals uncertain as they watched his every step. It also magnified his political capital immensely.

However, there's a more thoughtful camp in Wiper who know Kalonzo can't win solo. He has to pick a winning side sooner or later.

This camp believes it stands for Ukambani's best interests. They appreciate the theatrics at Wiper political rallies, but they prefer more productive thought be put into evaluating the two formations – Azimio and KKA – to determine which would offer the best deal to Ukambani.

There was never much doubt that Azimio was their favoured choice. Most of the Ukambani elite has indeed leaned on that position.

Then there is the it's-full-steam-ahead-and-damn-the-consequences camp. Of course, therein you find the usual candidates for electoral seats who seek to hang on his coattails in the charged atmosphere of a Kalonzo presidential campaign.

They just want to win their seats and don't care about much else. Others, though, want Kalonzo to run alone and don't really mind a loss, for rather different reasons. They care more for Ukambani's political space, which they fear will be compromised if Wiper is swallowed up in some giant coalition.

Possibly they believe they can force a run-off, which they calculate would bring enhanced benefits for Ukambani in the ensuing trade-offs. I can understand the brinkmanship, plus I suspect it plays to Kalonzo's heartstrings. But for him to indulge such passions would be to embark on a suicide mission. A so-called Third Force is a much-hyped concept. In Kenyan politics it has proved to be a pipe dream. It's never worked here since in 1992. The horses, as ever, are two.

Ultimately Kalonzo is going to side with the realists. There was never any doubt about that. He is under huge pressure from all over Ukambani to choose a side to negotiate with – and soon.

Then from there ensure Kamba interests are taken care of. In case he doesn't make the choice, he has been warned the alternative is him walking alone.

Many supporters will scatter; he has been told. That's not a good prospect for Kalonzo. It translates to his base abandoning him and voting for whichever formation it thinks suits it best.

I believe Kalonzo has weighed his cards carefully. Moi is a useful if not a terribly weighty alliance partner. Still, the Kanu leader is reckoned to be influential in goading Kalonzo to join Uhuru's and Raila's tag team. Jirongo's worth is less clear, though like Moi he is fiercely anti-William Ruto, the UDA chief.

Axe to grind

Businessman Jimi Wanjigi was always the wild card in the group. He's a wheeler-dealer who looks to where the deals are.

During Kalonzo and Company's recent Ukambani tour in which he tagged along, Wanjigi insisted on making toxic speeches targeting only Raila.

He sounded very much like somebody with a specific axe to grind.

When the Kalonzo-Moi-Karua-Jirongo pact was being unveiled on Wednesday, Wanjigi was missing.

Reportedly he was cast away for allegedly being a Ruto "mole".

Kalonzo chose to explain it this way: "Wanjigi is not here because they have unresolved issues in ODM." Indeed, Wanjigi has been pushing for a leadership contest with Raila in ODM.

Karua is the new inclusion in OKA. She wants to be governor of Kirinyaga, but has not ruled out seeking a 'national' role.

At some point she was angling for a running mate position, and reportedly even Ruto approached her (That surprised me). Her reputation for probity makes her name appear on many running mate shortlists. It's early days, and many twists lie ahead.

Kalonzo doesn't have all the time in the world if he wants to be part of a bigger coalition. The legal deadline to file coalition agreements is April 9. Until then, it isn't over until the fat lady sings.

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