WHO report shows dangers of weak Covid-19 control measures
A family member offers prayers at the grave of a loved one who died of Covid-19 coronavirus, at a cemetery in Surabaya on August 26, 2021. The Covid-19 pandemic killed 13.3 to 16.6 million people in 2020 and 2021, the WHO estimated on May 5, 2022.
Last week, the World Health Organization released shocking statistics on the estimated death toll associated with the Covid-19 pandemic for the year 2020 and 2021.
An estimated 14.9 million people are believed to have succumbed to the pandemic, directly and through associated impacts, according to the global health body.
At least 84 per cent of the deaths occurred in South East Asia, Europe and Americas even as just 10 countries accounted for 68 per cent of the global excess mortality.
The WHO figures indicate the extent of the pandemic damage in the first two years of its emergence and really brings to focus the question of what countries could have done to avert the crises.
It is a sobering call to review the pandemic response mechanisms adopted by different countries so far and the corresponding outcomes.
It is clear from the obtaining statistics that countries which adopted strong control measures such as strict lockdowns registered fewer numbers of infections and deaths per capita compared to states that allowed the virus to circulate in the population.
New Zealand, which adopted zero-Covid policy from the onset, had lost just 812 (0.016%) of its population to the pandemic by May 8, 2022.
Liberal approaches
In contrast, the United Kingdom and the United States which adopted more liberal approaches under the ‘living with the virus’ programmes had lost 176, 000 (0.26%) and 996, 0000 (0.3%) respectively, according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.
The WHO report comes out at a time when there is a big debate today on whether countries should uphold a zero-Covid policy, mostly in reference to China which has so far maintained its strong yet dynamic containment measures towards the global health crisis.
With nearly a quarter of the world population within its borders, China’s leadership believes that allowing the virus to roam and mutate carry unimaginable economic and social implications. Since the start of the pandemic, China has registered just about 5,100 Covid-19 deaths out of a population in access of 1.4 billion people.
To understand the fear in Beijing, let us consider India, a neighbouring country which is nearly as populous as China. According to the WHO, India accounted for nearly half of the unreported deaths with the country’s pandemic casualty standing above 4.7 million people. India’s government however insists the death toll from the pandemic is about 482, 000.
In my view the difference between China’s and India’s outcomes falls back to the mitigation measures adopted by the two countries.
Undesirable effects
Granted, China’s zero-Covid policy has come with some undesirable effects. Disruptions in international trade have denied people elsewhere commercial products originating from China. Covid-19 has also slowed down growth of the Chinese economy. However, China’s stance has also had its benefits at home and abroad.
It is not just the fewer number of infections and deaths; China was the only major country to register positive economic growth in 2020. Beijing’s ability to keep the virus at bay also enabled China to extend the much needed help across the developing south with medicines, materials and vaccines.
Mass vaccinations
A number of factors have anchored China’s successful execution of the zero-Covid policy. First, is the support by the citizens. The achievement would be impossible if the Chinese were not willing to entrain the short term pains in order to avoid the long term effects of a full blown pandemic scenario.
Secondly, Chinese authorities have gone to great lengths to balance the needs of the economy and safety of its citizens. Regular screenings, mass vaccinations and a robust e-commerce framework sidetracked by state support at firm and individual levels have all made a difference for China.
As an engine of global economic growth and champion of economic globalization, China should incrementally move towards opening its borders to the rest of the world. Some recent measures appear to mark such a reality.
The reduction in the number of days for self-quarantine from 14 to 10 days in Beijing and faster vaccination of the elderly alongside the rest of the population means China could soon relax its Covid-19 policy.
The writer is a scholar of international relations with a focus on China-Africa relations. Twitter: @Cavinceworld.
