Ukraine: Sanctions don’t work

In the absence of an appropriate geopolitical framework, sanctions have not crippled Russia. Sanctions initially formed the core of the West’s response to its invasion of Ukraine, the prelude to the war.

By attacking the oil and gas exports, on which President Vladimir Putin’s regime relies, Kyiv’s allies hoped to hit Moscow more effectively than by sanctioning an ever-increasing number of economic and political figures and entities.

This strategy, which only spares liquefied natural gas, has undeniably had an impact on Russia’s economy. But it has only resolved an impossible contradiction for its proponents, de facto financing of a war they denounce, not brought Russia to its knees.

The latest diplomatic win of the sanctions—the resumption of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, which in 2015 led to a deal later unfortunately scrapped by Donald Trump after he took office—is a reminder that this weapon can only be effective if it benefits from solid international consensus.

Failure to rally the vast coalition knit by his predecessor Barack Obama, Trump’s unilaterally imposed “maximum pressure” couldn’t sway Tehran.

The same applies to the containment of Russian economic and industrial activity, compromised by too many loopholes. The ghost fleet that covertly transports Russian oil, shows a UN investigation, represents 11-21 per cent of the world’s transport capacity.

 It enables sanctions to be bypassed, including via key countries courted by the West, like India. Buying Russian oil, banned in many countries, on the cheap, India refines and re-exports it, which has doubled, in one year, its oil exports to the EU.

The ‘watertight’ system is even compromised in both directions as Russia is still able to procure electronic components, indispensable to its arms industry hard hit by the high-intensity war.

This is where sanctions come up against politics: Putting up trade blockades would mean taking a harder stance vis-à-vis third parties, like Kazakhstan, at a time when the West is hoping to break them out of Russia’s orbit.

Mr Onyango is an advocate of the High Court of Kenya. [email protected].