OKA’s fortunes increase with the principals’ capacity to stay united

If One Kenya Alliance (OKA) cannot form the next government, why won't they support Orange Democratic Movement or United Democratic Alliance? Here are three reasons OKA will not support ODM or UDA even as they cannot form the next government. 

First, each OKA principal is unwilling to support former Prime Minister Raila Odinga or Deputy President William Ruto. 

They are each waiting for the opportune time to extract maximum concessions from the two front runners before the elections. Political pacts will be the name of the game in the post Uhuru political dispensation. 

For Raila, at 76 years, and multiple attempts at becoming President, this is the last real chance for him to enter State House. His advanced age and sizeable political constituency are an attractive option for any OKA member looking to run again in 2027. 

Function as kingmakers

However, Ruto offers OKA the opposite dilemma. What Raila lacks in time due to age, Ruto has in youth and the prospect of longevity in the Kenyan political space. A successful OKA principal partnership with Ruto could see years of fruitful political gains for the successful OKA principal. 

The reality for OKA is the players in the alliance can only function as kingmakers. They have no realistic chance of being king. Raila Odinga and William Ruto, are desperate to get key players in the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) on their side to avoid a potentially bruising and expensive runoff elections in 2022. 

The second reason is that not all OKA principals are equal. Some are more equal than others and will command steeper concessions from Raila or Ruto in exchange for their political support. Clearly, Musalia Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka carry significantly more political weight than Moses Wetangula and Gideon Moi. 

Mudavadi and Musyoka will be unwilling to carry the load of political deadweights with them into a potential coalition with either of the two front runners. In addition to this, the nature of political negotiations for the formation of pacts, is tough and long. 

Political deadweights complicate negotiations, which is what Moses Wetangula and Gideon Moi are. Musalia and Kalonzo are playing a waiting game, an act of brinkmanship to keep their potential suitors guessing on what their ultimate intentions are. This is the second reason they are not willing to play ball with Raila or Ruto for the 2022 elections. 

Rational political players

The third reason is that members of OKA are calculating the dynamics of the politics that develop in the Mt Kenya region. They must be sure that no major ethno-political notable emerges from Mt Kenya as this will severely complicate their political matrixes. It is not a matter of if, but for whom the principals of OKA will break. Will Musalia and Kalonzo go separate ways and support Raila and Ruto separately? 

Or will they opt to stick together by figuring out a tag team ticket, to force a runoff and then double down on extracting concessions from the two frontrunner political players, desperate to get their support? OKA’s collective fortunes increase in direct proportion to their capacity to remain together. 

However, Kalonzo and Musalia are rational political players who can decide to work separately and pursue enlightened self-interest in negotiating with Raila or Ruto. 

Time will tell which principal in OKA blinks first and joins the ticket of ODM (Raila) or UDA (Ruto). Therefore, even though One Kenya Alliance (OKA) cannot form the next government, it won’t support ODM or UDA.

Prof Monda teaches political science, international relations, and American government at the City University of New York (York College), New York, USA. [email protected] @dmonda1