Time to pacify the Horn of Africa

Even the optimists find it difficult to fathom how the Abiy Ahmed regime will withstand the onslaught by the Oromo Liberation Army and Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

It is, indeed, paradoxical that the Ethiopian Prime Minister, who won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in ending the longstanding hostility with neighbouring Eritrea, is on the verge of being overthrown.

The Horn of Africa’s troubles neither start nor stop with Ethiopia, however. Recently, the Sudanese military, in an ill-advised adventure, overthrew the quasi-civilian caretaker government that came into being after the ouster of the long-serving dictator, President Omar al-Bashir. Now, we can only expect a clawback of the civil liberties that had begun to thrive under Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.

South Sudan is enjoying an uneasy tranquillity after the return of Dr Riek Machar to the national unity government of President Salva Kiir. But going by how fragile the youngest nation is, it is difficult to predict whether the peace deal has finally been embraced by all parties or if it is a lull before the storm.

Uncertain future

Somalia faces an uncertain future. The anticipated general elections, postponed several times, have caused a major political falling-out. Al-Shabaab continues to pose a major challenge to President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s federal government.

If Kenya withdrew its troops, Mogadishu could meet the same fate as Kabul upon withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, which crumbled to the returning Taliban. Add to the little matter of the territorial dispute with Kenya and it gets more complex.

Eritrea is deeply involved in Ethiopia’s conflict, leaving Kenya and Djibouti as the only stable states in the Horn. With a hotly contested general election due next year, we can only hope that Kenya will be unscathed. Hosting refugees from Somalia and South Sudan, Ethiopians could add to its burden.

For the Horn to change the narrative and break off its legacy of crises, the political leaders must free themselves from the yoke of parochialism politics based on ethnic and/or religious outlook.

Mr Gatere is operations manager, Pride of East Africa Ltd. [email protected].