Despite ‘success’ in the Ukraine war, Biden remains unpopular at home
Ukrainian soldiers at their position near Lyman on April 28. Russia is unable to take over the whole country, while Ukraine is unable to liberate its occupied territories of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk.
Joe Biden’s popularity rating domestically continues to recede. The latest RealClear Politics aggregate poll shows 68 per cent of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, compared with only about 25 per cent who hold a contrary view.
Yet the President continues to enjoy overwhelming public goodwill on the Ukraine war, including unusual bipartisan support from Congressional Republicans.
Why is this the case?
Americans tend to vote their pocketbook. Success in far-off countries abroad, while good, does little to relieve the economic pain at home. This includes a weak US economy, rising interest rates, a bearish stock market, languid supply chains and Covid fatigue. All these issues have contributed to disillusionment with the current president.
While the negative impact of Covid and disjointed global supply chains result from the ineptitude of the Trump Administration, President Biden has not done enough to improve the American economy. Rising interest rates, skyrocketing home prices, high inflation, and continuing uncertainty on the long-term impact of Covid, continue to bring down the president’s poll numbers.
Gender identity
In addition to this, core domestic issues like the abortion debate, parent involvement in instructional curriculum in the classroom and broader gender identity issues have further polarised an already weary and despondent electorate. These issues have sharpened the culture wars between the more liberal coastal states in the Northeast and West against the more conservative states in the mid-west, southeast and south.
President Biden’s success in Ukraine in slowing down and frustrating the Russian advance into Kyiv has raised the spirits of American allies aboard. America continues to sabre-rattle with Russia over the strategic geopolitical space of Ukraine. Congress has shown unusual bipartisan support for Biden on Ukraine authorising over $2 billion (Sh233 trillion) in aid for that country.
Nato allies have coalesced around Biden on Ukraine. Tightening sanctions on Russia and advancing Nato frontiers to the Russian border. Finland and Sweden have formally applied to join the Nato club. All these foreign policy successes notwithstanding, Biden’s woes remain on the domestic policy front.
President Biden’s poor domestic poll numbers could take a further hit in the upcoming midterm congressional elections. The 435 members of the House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate are up for re-election. Traditionally, the party in power in the White House and Congress (in this case the Democrats), tends to do poorly in the mid-terms. Biden’s woes don’t end there.
Depending on how long the war in Ukraine drags on, and its corresponding impact on the US and global economy, the president could be facing a particularly challenging 2023.
Should Republicans take majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate after the mid-term elections later this year, President Biden will face an even more obstructionist Republican majority at every turn on his legislative priorities.
Domestic woes
In addition to this, an escalation in the war in Ukraine into Moldova, Poland, Belarus, and Georgia, will further complicate his first term in office. The continued unpopularity of his Vice-President Kamala Harris does not help the president either, especially the divisions within his administration over her capacity to successfully run as the Democratic ticket bearer for 2024 should President Biden decide not to run for a second term.
His political woes domestically appear destined to continue. The stock and bond markets continue to struggle for direction. The economy remains bearish while the uncertainty over Covid and its long-term effects exacerbate his predicament.
In addition to this, Ukraine remains an enigma. Russia is unable to take over the whole country, while Ukraine is unable to liberate its occupied territories of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Despite success in the Ukraine war abroad, President Biden will remain unpopular at home for some time to come.
Prof Monda teaches political science, international relations, and American government at the City University of New York (York College), New York, USA. [email protected] @dmonda1. www.davidmonda.com
