Why Kenya should closely follow Nigeria elections
Men load boxes of ballot papers into a dispatch vehicle at the Nigeria's Independent Electoral Commission office in Kano, Nigeria on February 23, 2023, ahead of the Nigerian presidential elections scheduled for February 25, 2023.
Today, Nigerians will head to the polls to elect their next president.
The term of the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari will also be coming to an end after eight years of two-terms presidential tenure as per the Nigerian constitution.
A total of 18 candidates are in the race, but according to opinion polls, only three have emerged as front contenders. The ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), has fielded a former governor of Lagos State Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is 70 years.
The main opposition People's Democratic Party (PDP) has fronted Atiku Abubakar, aged 76. Atiku has the experience of having run for the presidency five times and lost in all. A potentially surprise factor is Labour Party’s Peter Obi, 61, who is hoping to end the dominance of PDP and APC in Nigeria politics since the end of military rule in 1999.
Although he was in the PDP until last year, he is seen as not bearing the blemishes of previous governments. Obi also served as governor of the southeastern Anambra State. Besides attracting the support of Nigeria’s youths, particularly on social media, Obi has also received unusual endorsement from former President Olusegun Obasanjo who was president of PDP.
Two-horse race?
However, early indications point to a two-horse race between Atiku and Tinubu; both banking on their more established parties, APC and PDP, that have extensive grassroots networks.
Nigerian parties have historically factored in the regional and religious consideration of alternating between the north and south, and Muslim and Christians respectively, in their selection of presidential candidates.
Candidate of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Atiku Abubakar gestures during a campaign rally in Kano, northwest Nigeria, on February 9, 2023, ahead of the February 25 presidential election.
The rotational and alternating presidential candidature from the north and south of the country is due to the recognition of the country’s fragile and evenly balanced Muslim-Christian composition and ethnic diversity.
However, the 2023 election strategic matrices have broken this tradition. Although the APC has followed this trend with Tinubu coming from the south, given Buhari’s northern roots; the PDP has broken this norm and fielded Abubakar who, like the outgoing President Buhari, comes from the north.
But, Tinubu, a Muslim, has also departed from the Muslim-Christian balancing act to choose a fellow Muslim, the former Borno State Governor Kashim Shettima as his vice-presidential running mate.
In an apparent balancing strategy, Abubakar, a Muslim, has selected the current Delta State Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, a Christian, as his running mate.
On his part, Obi has elicited the interest of the youths in the elections. Notably, Nigeria has one of the highest youth populations in the world. Nearly 40 per cent of registered voters (37 million) are between the ages of 18 and 34, followed by 35.7 per cent of middle-aged voters (33.4 million) between 35 and 49 years. Thus, of the 93.4 million registered voters, over 75 per cent are 49 and below. But the challenge is that most youth do not have voter’s cards (PVCs).
Besides the presidential elections, Nigerians will on Saturday be choosing their representatives for parliament— 469 legislators comprising 109 Senators and 360 members of the House of Representatives. If there is no clear presidential winner, a second round will be held within three weeks. There will also be elections for the country's state governors on Saturday, 11 March 2023.
Campaign issues
Key issues driving the campaigns include reducing insecurity where Nigeria is currently experiencing campaign violence, ransom kidnappings, Boko Haram terrorism in the north and a separatist insurgency in the southeast. The separatist Biafra people have stated that they are not interested in this election as what matters to them is a referendum for secession.
Candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) Bola Tinubu gestures during the final campaign rally of the party at Teslim Balogun Stadium in Lagos, on February 21, 2023. He has taken an early lead.
The economy is another important campaign factor because of the rising cost of living and huge unemployment, especially among the youth. As such, the campaigns have relatively seen less religious and ethnic mobilisation as candidates focus on issues like insecurity and the economy.
Moreover, this time round, the candidates from the two major parties are both Muslims. However, pundits argue that religion and violence continue to influence voting patterns. Thus the ruling party’s candidate may be disadvantaged by religious considerations.
Further, the fact that there is no incumbent in this election, there is bound to be stiff competition and uncertainty on the outcome of the vote. This is the second time that Nigeria has had a presidential vote without an incumbent seeking reelection.
Implications for Kenya’s foreign policy
Nigeria’s election is a global event and particularly, an African event.
Therefore, the outcome of the elections in Nigeria will certainly have a bearing on Kenya’s strategic interest in the region, continent and the international system. This election will definitely bring in a new president since the incumbent has reached his constitutional term limit.
Labour Party's Presidential candidate Peter Obi (centre), flanked by wife Margaret and his running mate Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, greets supporters during a campaign rally at Adamasingba Stadium in Ibadan, southwestern Nigeria, on November 23, 2022, ahead of the 2023 Nigerian presidential election.
Normally, whenever there is a government transition, most allies become anxious due to the relative uncertainty that accompanies a change of regime. Since foreign policy is a function of domestic policy, the uncertainty arising from domestic dynamics, such as perhaps the new government radically shifting Nigeria’s foreign policy or maintaining continuity, should concern Kenya’s mandarins and think tanks.
The reality is that a nation’s head of state is its ‘diplomat number one’. The presidential directives can shape and reshape the reorientation of the state’s foreign policy. In this context, Kenya should have a ‘forecast strategy of engagement’ with the incoming administration based on scenario analysis of the possible outcomes of the Nigeria poll.
The election will reconfigure Kenya’s ties with Nigeria and the West African states. Given that a new president will be in office, or worst case scenario, fears of conflict, this may re-orientate the existing relations between the two states.
Elections in most African states are often accompanied by political uncertainty which may lead to drastic changes in policy causing adverse effects such as previous contracts or agreements and projects stalling, or being re-examined under a new administration.
Sometimes, newly elected administrations could take long to form a Cabinet and appoint heads of key agencies, thus affecting international commitments. For instance, in 2015 Buhari took six months to name a Cabinet.
Nigeria is a key ally of major Western powers, a giant economy and a geopolitical heavyweight in Africa. Indeed, Nigeria, as the leading economy in Africa, is also the largest contributor to the African Development Bank.
Traders walk between cars in traffic in Kano, Nigeria, on February 24, 2023, ahead of the Nigerian presidential elections scheduled for February 25, 2023.
The country is often referred to as the ‘Giant of Africa’ owing to its huge population and economy. In fact, the World Bank has categorized Nigeria as one of the emerging vast markets. Nigeria’s population is currently estimated at about 220 million and is forecast to double by 2050.
This makes Nigeria a lucrative destination for trade and investment. Kenya has signed bilateral trade agreements with Nigeria. In September 2013, President Goodluck Jonathan visited Kenya accompanied by 500 Nigerian government officials and businessmen. This was said to be the first visit to Kenya by a Nigerian president in 26 years. In 2021, Nigeria’s exports to Kenya were US$1.44 million as per the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade.
Kenya is also exporting its goods and services to Nigeria. In 2011, Kenyan mobile financial services company Cellulant won a $8.5m four-year government contract in Nigeria.
Furthermore, the national carrier, Kenya Airways (KQ), is a popular link between West Africa and Asian destinations and has thus contributed to Kenya’s favourable balance of trade with Nigeria.
Regional strategy
Kenya’s regional strategy on intra-Africa trade will be influenced by the outcome of elections in Nigeria. Kenya’s Trade Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has been traversing the continent with an aim of placing Kenya in the regional trade leadership in readiness for full trade integration of African states.
Supporters of Nigeria’s Labour Party hold posters during a global march for the presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) Peter Obi, in Abuja, Nigeria on February 18, 2023, ahead of the Nigerian presidential election scheduled for February 25, 2023.
The aim is to maximize benefits from economic opportunities inherent in intra-Africa trade. Kenya has been at the forefront of pushing for the conclusion of a tripartite agreement that will see the unification of EAC, COMESA and SADC.
After this Kenya expects to lead further integration with ECOWAS and other regional blocs like the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU). This strategic policy can best be achieved by collaborating with the incoming government of Nigeria (a powerhouse in ECOWAS).
The strengthening of trade ties between Kenya and Nigeria is bound to enhance their leadership of intra-African trade. The Pan-African Private Sector Trade and Investment Committee (PAFTRAC) survey in 2022 reveals that Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa are some of the leading states in the promotion of intra-Africa trade.
Although Kenya and Nigeria have great potential in bilateral trade, this has not been substantially exploited. For instance, there are many products from Kenya in the Nigerian market such as flowers and tea, which unfortunately are not directly imported from Kenya, but instead, Nigeria buys them from the UK.
Kenya should take the earliest opportunity to align with the new government in Nigeria so as to increase direct trade relations between the two states.
AfCFTA factor
The economic relations between Kenya and Nigeria should grow under the AfCFTA. Both Kenya and Nigeria are leaders in AfCFTA, hence Kenya needs to collaborate with the expected new government in Nigeria so that Nairobi can actively participate and set the agenda in the AfCFTA, in order to utilize economic opportunities in intra-Africa trade.
Here, Kenya’s advantage is that it is a step ahead in the AfCFTA participation and leadership compared to Nigeria. While Kenya and Ghana were the first to ratify the AfCFTA in May 2018, Nigeria was initially reluctant to join, but later ratified the pact in December 2020.
Kenya is among seven countries selected to pilot trading without being subjected to tariff barriers under the AfCFTA framework.
Nairobi has taken advantage of this pilot programme by the AfCFTA, where in October 2022, it shipped its first batches of locally made car batteries and tea to Ghana, a key member of ECOWAS.
Therefore, under the AfCFTA, Kenya is looking to expand its tea export market to West and Central Africa. For this reason, stability in Nigeria after the poll will enhance Kenya’s trade and investment forays in the West Africa region.
Kenya has in place a National AfCFTA Implementation Strategy 2022-2027, which enables it to fast-track and benefit from the implementation of the AfCFTA.
Furthermore, the poll in Nigeria will potentially have a dimension on Kenya’s foreign policy objective of promoting and projecting its strategic interests through multilateralism, especially at the African Union (AU) level.
Nigeria has a great influence on the position of the AU on international matters, be they climate change or international peace and security, majorly because Nigeria is Africa's largest economy and most populous country.
In fact, the global image of Nigeria’s foreign policy is that it is a champion of African issues in the international system. Therefore, Kenya should quickly develop a rapport with the new government and forge closer ties with Nigeria and other African powers such as Egypt, South Africa, Ghana and francophone Africa to make it easier to push her agenda at the African Union.
Self-interest
That notwithstanding, Nigeria is also Kenya’s competitor because the two countries must ultimately look out for their self-interest. The two compete in projecting their image to global powers as better allies in Africa, compete for trade and vie for the continental balance of power through the African Union. For instance, in the lucrative global agenda of green energy, Nigeria, just like Kenya and other African countries, is a favourable investment destination.
Western countries that want to become climate-neutral or fossil-fuel free, will be looking at Kenya, Nigeria and other African countries for investment. Despite the competing interests, Kenya can capitalise on new relations with the incoming government in Nigeria to develop cooperation in renewable energies and avoid competition and duplication.
Finally, the Nigerian diaspora is increasingly growing in Kenya and East Africa. The number of Nigerian investments and businesses in Kenya has also increased.
H.E. (Rtd) President Uhuru Kenyatta when he met the 90-member African Union election observers' mission (AUEOM) group, appointed from the 55 African Union (A.U.) member states on February 22, 2023, to monitor Nigeria's seventh general election since independence, in Abuja Nigeria.
Kenya should partner with the incoming government to invigorate new ways of engaging the Nigerian diaspora with a view to improving their welfare and enhancing positive perceptions about Nigerians in Kenya.
In sum, the stakes are not only high for the presidential candidates in Nigeria's 2023 election but the world will be closely following the process and the outcome of the polls.
That is because Nigeria is an African power whose voice carries international weight. Yet, the elections are taking place in an environment of uncertainty and tension. Nonetheless, the future of Kenya-Nigeria ties is potentially brighter this time round, provided there is a peaceful election and smooth transition to a new administration in Abuja.
If all remains peaceful and credible results emerge from the vote, Kenya should quickly invite the newly elected Nigerian leadership to Nairobi for a state visit. This will enhance Kenya’s strategy of strengthening collaboration with key African powers as well as expanding into the West Africa trade market. Kenya should have an open and impartial approach to the elections and embrace whoever is validly declared the winner.
Kenya is a regional economic giant in East Africa, while Nigeria is a continental giant. Kenya will have to forge a new trade and investment partnership with Nigeria’s incoming government. For instance, there is a need to have direct export and imports between the two states. This is to stop the case of re-exports, where many products from Kenya, like tea and flowers, find their way into the Nigerian market not directly from Kenya, but instead imported from the UK.
On matters of continental peace and security, both Kenya and Nigeria have played their roles in peace support missions, preventive diplomacy or mediations and counter-terrorism. Kenya needs to deepen its ties with the incoming Nigerian government so that the two states can emerge as lead partners of the international actors in the war on terrorism and maintenance of Africa’s peace and security.
Kenya’s strategic interest in Nigeria elections should be bolstered by the fact that Kenya’s immediate former President Uhuru Kenyatta is leading the African Union Election Observers' Mission (AUEOM) group in Nigeria. Kenya should deploy its soft power diplomacy to make the most of the role of its former president as head of the AU election observer mission to find ways of endearing itself to the new administration in Nigeria.
Muliro Nasong’o is a Resident Fellow at the Global Centre for Policy and Strategy (GLOCEPS)
