Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Houthi's comments jeopardise his AU chairmanship bid

Djibouti’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, known for his strategic lobbying, is now a contender for the chairmanship of the African Union.

However, with elections coming up in February next year, his bid for the AU’s top position has come under intense scrutiny following statements in which he has expressed support for Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. On Sunday, Houthis hit the centre of Israel using a hypersonic missile. 

This stance has sparked a wave of controversy, raising concerns about Djibouti's position on the geopolitical landscape, particularly in Yemen, and the broader implications for its leadership role within the AU.

Djibouti hosts military bases from global powers like the United States, Germany, Spain, Italy, France, United Kingdom, China, and Saudi Arabia, leveraging its geographic position for geopolitical gain.

As the country’s top diplomat since 2005, Youssouf has been instrumental in positioning Djibouti as a stable hub in a volatile region.

In recent years, Houthi rebels from Yemen , who the US has described as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group, have launched several attacks on vessels in Red Sea waterways, exacerbating tensions between Yemen's warring factions and their regional backers, including Saudi Arabia and Iran. 

The conflict in Yemen has become a proxy war, with the Houthis backed by Iran and the Yemeni government supported by a Saudi-led coalition.Given Djibouti’s geographical proximity to  Yemen and its reliance on international partnerships, Youssouf's recent remarks about the Houthis have raised alarm across the diplomatic community.

The controversy began when Youssouf, during a speech at a regional forum in mid-2024, made remarks that were sympathetic to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

He said that Houthi’s attacks on shipping vessels were justified, adding that it was a legitimate act to support Palestine against Israel.

He framed the Houthis' actions as a "defensive measure" in response to the Saudi-led coalition's airstrikes in Yemen. Youssouf reportedly described the Houthis as "resisting foreign intervention" and suggested that their maritime attacks were a legitimate response to what he called "aggression from external powers." 

Yet Yemen and Djibouti chain migration rapport over the years have led to stronger bilateral relations. For instance, Yemeni banking institution CAC International Bank, which collectively holds (since 2022) 49 per cent of the market share in assets and 43 per cent in credit, is based in Djibouti.

The bank, which won the best corporate mobile application award in Africa in 2021, has its largest business coming from the Djibouti diaspora. 

Additionally, their resources represented 63 per cent of the total financial instruments managed by the banking sector. This Yemeni banking institution, despite being the third leading in Djibouti, is currently largely defunct and split between two entities in the north and south of the country. 

These comments were met with immediate backlash, especially from countries directly involved in the conflict, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), both of whom have invested heavily in Djibouti’s development and military infrastructure. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were quick to condemn Youssouf's remarks, calling them "irresponsible" and "a dangerous endorsement of terrorism."

Critics argue that Youssouf’s statements not only undermine Djibouti’s neutral stance but also embolden the Houthis, who have carried out attacks that have disrupted international shipping and jeopardized regional stability.

Moreover, these comments come at a sensitive time, as Djibouti maintains military and economic relationships with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which view the Iran-backed militia as a major threat to their security.

Youssouf’s remarks have not only strained relations with Gulf states but also put Djibouti’s broader diplomatic strategy at risk. His tone suggests a shift in Djibouti’s foreign policy, potentially aligning the country closer to Iranian interests in the region. 

This perception is dangerous for a small country that relies heavily on international aid and military partnerships to sustain its economy. Djibouti's economy, which is heavily dependent on port revenues and foreign military leases, could suffer if the controversy leads to diminished support from key Gulf and Western allies.

For instance, the UAE, which has significant investments in Djibouti’s infrastructure, could rethink its economic partnership. Similarly, Saudi Arabia’s support for Djibouti’s development projects and military cooperation could be jeopardized if the kingdom believes that Djibouti is leaning towards Tehran's sphere of influence.

AU chairmanship bid in jeopardy

Youssouf’s bid for the AU chairmanship is now at risk. His candidacy, which had been seen as a strong one given Djibouti’s strategic importance, has been overshadowed by the fallout from his remarks. 

Several African states have expressed concerns about Youssouf’s suitability for the role, questioning whether he can represent the interests of the entire continent while making controversial statements about a highly sensitive regional conflict.

Critics argue that Youssouf’s stance on the Houthis could compromise the AU’s ability to remain impartial in mediating conflicts in Africa and the Middle East.

Some African leaders have also expressed concerns that Youssouf’s leadership could alienate key international partners, such as the United States and the European Union, which have provided critical financial and technical support to the AU’s peacekeeping missions and development initiatives.

The chairmanship of the AU is a position that requires not only diplomatic skill but also the ability to navigate complex regional and international issues.

Youssouf’s perceived support for the Houthis could make it difficult for him to build consensus among AU member states, particularly those with close ties to Gulf nations or with their own concerns about insurgent groups within their borders.

The US, which maintains a significant military presence in Djibouti, views the Houthis as a destabilizing force in the region, particularly due to their links with Iran. Washington has been actively involved in supporting the Saudi-led coalition’s efforts to counter the Houthis and secure maritime trade routes in the Red Sea.

French officials, too, have had long-standing military and economic presence in Djibouti. As a country with interests in maintaining stability in the Horn of Africa and the wider Red Sea region, France is wary of any signs that Djibouti is aligning itself with actors that threaten regional security.

Youssouf’s remarks could have long-term implications for both Djibouti’s foreign policy and his AU chairmanship bid. Djibouti’s perceived shift in its stance towards the Houthis could isolate it from key Gulf allies and undermine its role as a mediator in regional conflicts.