Zuma faction wins control of key S. African province of KwaZulu-Natal

A faction of South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) party, aligned with former president Jacob Zuma, has swept aside allies of President Cyril Ramaphosa in the most populous province, setting the scene for a bruising showdown within the party at its year-end national elective conference.

The big win by the ‘anti-Ramaphosa’ faction in Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal represents a serious setback to efforts by Ramaphosa and his allies to rid the ruling party and the governance of the country of incompetents and corrupt elements.

The ANC’s KwaZulu-Natal provincial elective conference began Friday amid much contention over which branches and delegates had been properly constituted and mandated to attend the, with over 1,600 delegates from 13 regions.

‘Failed insurrection’

Of these regions, 11 were openly supportive of Zuma, and also highly critical of Ramaphosa’s leadership and that of the party in the province.

Much of the antipathy against Ramaphosa, and now former provincial ANC leader Sihle Zikalala, had also to do with perceived failures by both levels of government to respond adequately to last year’s ‘failed insurrection’ in KwaZulu-Natal, after the jailing of Zuma. The unrest caused widespread infrastructure damage, much still to be repaired. The extremely damaging floods of April are also still barely addressed.

The KwaZulu-Natal victory by what some of those supporting Ramaphosa labelled the ‘Taliban faction’ was considered a ‘big upset’ in ANC circles. This is because of Ramaphosa’s increasingly firm control of his party in much of the rest of the country, as pro-Zuma elements have largely lost power and influence in regions where he previously enjoyed strong support, such as the North West and Free State provinces. The win has set the scene for a tough ‘fight-back’ in the ANC’s year-end national elective conference of the ruling party.

Largest South African province

While KwaZulu-Natal is the largest South African province by population, with about 30 percent of the country’s 61 million populace calling the province home, and therefore providing the largest delegate count at the year-end conference, Ramaphosa’s overall position is now far stronger than when he ran for party leader in 2017.

Back then, Ramaphosa was an outsider, relative to Zuma’s preferred candidate to succeed him, his former wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, and needed the widely unexpected help of David Mabuza to become ANC leader, much to the dismay of the Zuma camp.

With Mpumalanga province still largely loyal to Mabuza, Ramaphosa’s deputy and the country’s deputy president, and most of the newly elected leaders of other provinces and year-end delegates likely supporting Ramaphosa, he is still on course for a probable second term as party leader and president.

Tough-fought affair

But the strong showing by what amounts to a youth-heavy, anti-Ramaphosa element in KwaZulu-Natal means the year-end conference will still be a tough-fought affair, with much at stake.

In the bid to clean up the party, then the government, the ANC had sent ‘task teams’ into provinces where leadership and other structures had broken down or were in disarray due to factional battles and leadership struggles, including North West, Free State and KwaZulu-Natal.

Recent regional elections returned leaders and electors’ slates that were largely pro-Ramaphosa, ensuring his likely win – but the KwaZulu-Natal result, decided late Saturday, still represents a serious challenge to his administration and leadership.

The new KwaZulu-Natal leaders spoke of “unity” and of “moving forward” more rapidly to repair the damaged province, indicating that the latter was of greater concern to them than the factional divisions within the ‘party of Nelson Mandela’.

Still, most analysts agreed that at the year-end conference, there was bound to be another, potentially determinative, showdown between the two sides, with the Ramaphosa faction on paper the stronger and likely winners.

Harsh setback

Nevertheless, the KwaZulu-Natal ‘reversal’ for Ramaphosa’s team is a harsh setback. Ramaphosa, who was due to address the party delegates at the end of the KwaZulu-Natal provincial conference late Sunday, initially withdrew from doing so, citing ‘prior engagements’, only for his address to be later confirmed.

Party sources said Ramaphosa was initially not prepared to run the risk of weakening his position by being booed and jeered – a distinct possibility – if he was to attend and attempt to address the KwaZulu-Natal conference, but that failing to attend would be an admission of defeat in KwaZulu-Natal, hence his change of mind.

The win in that province of Siboniso Duma, a former ANC Youth League leader, and like-minded colleagues represents a ‘blow’ to what some called the ‘Ankole’ faction, an indirect reference to President Ramaphosa, due to his involvement in Ankole cattle breeding, and a reminder of the ‘Phala Phala’ currency theft scandal still swirling about the president’s head.

Nevertheless, even with a young and feisty opposition in the country’s largest region, Ramaphosa should still emerge from the year-end party conference as leader of both the ANC and the country.