A man votes in a past election in Somalia.
Somalia may or may not hold direct elections the next time the country decides to choose a new president. And the cycle of the past decade could continue, with politicians discussing a new electoral model only to revert to the clan representation system.
In March this year, the country's Federal Government (FGS) pushed through amendments to four chapters of the constitution, suggesting for the first time that the next election will be direct.
Under the amendments, which have been opposed by some political rivals, Somalia will have a three-way race for the presidency and a framework for direct elections from districts to the federal states and national level every five years.
These changes are to be strengthened by bills currently before parliament on the electoral commission, voter registration and political parties.
The idea behind the changes, said President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, is to ensure that more people are involved in choosing their leaders.
“We cannot keep on using the indirect election model. Since the transition ended, we have had two elections. One time 14,800 people voted, the next time 30,000 voted. This time, we want millions of Somalis to vote,” Mohamud told the Nation in an interview in June, shortly after the bills were proposed.
“If we can conduct examinations throughout Somalia, why not elections? We are not expecting that the close to 20 million people will vote, no. But we are targeting a few million people. This is the first time in 55 years that Somalia is going to the one person, one vote.”
There are already problems with the proposals. And a new paper analysing the changing landscape said this week that both the timing and the manner in which the amendments were made could stall the progress. Mohamud’s rivals accused him of failing to consult.
“For any major reform—electoral or otherwise—to succeed in Somalia, where regionalisation is strong, securing political buy-in from key stakeholders is essential, particularly from FMS (federal member states) leaders and opposition figures,” says a paper published this week by GLAFPOL, a US-based research firm that focuses on Horn of Africa politics.
“Given their significant regional influence, FMS leaders cannot be passive participants—direct elections will fail without their active cooperation,” says the paper, titled “A Path to Direct Elections? Analysing Somalia's Electoral Bill Against Political Realities”.
However, Mohamud had begun consultations through the National Consultative Council, which brings together the federal government and the federal member states. They met several times before Puntland, one of the five states, suspended 'cooperation' with the federal government. But the Council of Ministers approved amendments, which parliament endorsed in March, proposing a three-level election that caters to party popularity and clan interests.
The protests by rival politicians came as some disagreed with the idea of limiting the presidential contest to the three most popular parties, which would be determined by grassroots elections in districts and states. They also disagreed on which districts should be used as the basic unit. The amendments suggest the districts that existed in Somalia before the fall of Siad Barre's regime.
“Of course, when these types of discussions are taking place, there is anger, arguments or counterarguments,” Mohamud told the Nation then. Somalia hasn’t had universal suffrage since 1969.
“But at the end of every meeting, there are two documents. One is the communique on what has been done and what we are going to do, and the other is the agreement on the federal issue that has been agreed, signed and endorsed.”
These disagreements, he argued, weren’t a stumbling block, but a bump to slow down and iron out problems.
Mohamed Farole, Puntland Minister for Climate, and a political analyst, in Somalia, said the lack of consensus could hurt the proposals, even though they seek to cure a Somali problem of elite politics.
“Doing unilaterally, without consulting federal member states won’t work. Even in federal states themselves, like Puntland, consultations have to happen for policies to be accepted,” he said, referring to Puntland's elections in January.
“There has been a deliberate effort to prevent the parliament from debating these proposals freely. In Somalia, proposals have to also come from the federal states.”
In Somalia, political reform is as much a question of when it is proposed as what is proposed. For example, while most politicians have commented on the content and structure of the proposed elections, some observers have seen it as a matter of self-preservation. In Puntland, for example, holding elections in January this year means that the government wants to hold the next elections in five years' time and may not be willing to compromise on earlier elections to fit in with the federal government's calendar.
Yasin Ahmed Ismail, head of research and analysis at GLAFPOL, argued that while President Mohamud had launched a reform programme earlier in his term than his predecessor, it may be four years into his term before any real progress is made.
“The lesson we learn is that it depends on what it is the FGS are proposing…and also, when are they proposing it. In the past, they made proposals so late. They do that, perhaps, as a way of creating an extension to their term,” Ismail told the Nation.
The perception of fast-paced reforms, he said, could raise questions about whether they are politically motivated, with two years left in his four-year term and the uncertainty that usually comes with indirect polls.
The proposals seek to eliminate the indirect elections, which are seen as too expensive for candidates. But the structural changes needed could take more than two years to implement. Some have suggested a staggered build-up, beginning with the grassroots and gradually developing a wider participation nationally.
But there is a problem of the clan dynamics. The proposals have limited the clan presence in more than one party and have provisions for clans to cede some seats for the marginalised. This could mean recognising the clan as an ever-present issue of concern, argued Dr Adam Aw Hirsi, Director of Foresight for Practical Solutions, a Mogadishu-based public policy think tank.
“Historically, most Somali clans were sovereign entities, each with its own chieftain, territory, and traditional codes known as 'xeer'. The arrival of European colonialists on the Somali coast ushered in a somewhat failed emulation of European systems of governance,” Dr Aw Hirsi told the Nation.
Even after independence, the new government followed clan patterns. Barre tried to suppress them, but they only erupted after he was deposed.
“The 4.5 formula that Somalis have used to share power since 2000 has given the clan system the ultimate certificate of recognition, allowing it to reign supreme in the Somali political system,” Aw Hirsi said, warning that any reform will have to take clan interests into account.
But it's not the clans that are the problem, it's the political elites who abuse them. Somalia also faces an existential security problem.
The federal system has led to the creation of clan enclaves that compete for clan supremacy, added Aden Abdirisak, a former senior adviser in the president's office and now executive director of Farsight Africa Research and Policy Studies in Mogadishu.
“Somalia badly needs a realistic political reform where the government powers are decentralised like Kenya's political structure,” he told the Nation, arguing that this requires consensus.
The proposals are vital for the future of the country’s democracy, he argued.
“But first, the Mohamud administration needs to focus on uniting the country, focusing on security reform and liberating the country from Al-Shabaab terrorists, and galvanising the renewed support from both regional and international communities.”
