Lieutenant Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, head of Guinea's Army’s special forces and coup leader, waves to the crowd as he arrives at the Palace of the People in Conakry on September 6, 2021.
Guinea in September marked third anniversary of the coup that ousted former President Alpha Conde. But the commemoration became an occasion for the citizens to protest what they see as lack of movement on timelines for democratic transition.
Those protests, on September 5, saw violence too, highlighting the increasingly authoritarian posture of the military-led transition government. All kinds of demonstrations are banned by the junta.
Therefore, all unauthorised public gatherings are considered illegal and have been treated with heavy-handed responses, resulting in scores of arrests, detentions and even deaths of those opposed to the soldiers’ continued grip on power.
Rights watchdog Amnesty International estimates that at least 47 people have died in clashes with security forces between June 2022 and March 2024.
The organisers of the September 5 protests, under the banner of Forces Vives de Guinee or FVG (the Living Forces of Guinea), appeared ready for the inevitable. They had several demands, key among them an explanation for the lack of progress in the transition process.
They also demanded the release of jailed opposition activists, particularly two members of the banned National Front for the Defence of the Constitution or FNDC, its French acronym. Oumar Sylla, also known as Foniké Menguè and his colleague Mamadou Billo Bah have been a thorn in the flesh of the military since the coup.
FNDC, a coalition of civil society activists, was the architect of anti-government demonstrations that characterized the latter part of Conde’s 11-year rule - 2019 to 2021, which plunged the country into near chaos, claiming dozens of lives. Their main goal was to prevent his successful bid to contest for a third term.
Conde was nine months into his third term when he was ousted by former Special Forces Commander Col Mamadi Doumbouya, who has since promoted himself to the rank of General.
FNDC took no break in its call for a rapid return to constitutional order following the coup it openly endorsed. But the junta has been no less brutal in its responses to the pro-democracy group.
After several clashes, the group was banned in 2022. But its members continue to operate in defiance, which led to the latest arrest of its leaders on July 9. Some reports suggested that the activists were being held in a detention facility on Kissa, an island off Conakry, amid allegations of torture.
Their arrest is just one in a long series since the junta assumed power.
Pro-democracy campaigners say the authorities are cracking down on any voice that tries to mobilise for a return of civilians to power.
Even the media hasn’t been spared, as outlets that reported on the protests or criticize the administration face closure. Individual journalists and media rights activists have been detained for comments seen as critical against the head of state.
In July, the Bar Association embarked on a three-week strike to protest “arbitrary arrests.”
The FVG, which comprises political and civil society activists, has been filling the void left by absence of the FNDC. Its membership includes some of the leading opposition political parties, like the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) of veteran opposition leader and former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo and the Union of Republican Forces of Sidya Toure, also a former Prime Minister.
Conde’s election in 2010, although disputed, kindled hopes for Guinea, particularly among the youth. The country had only known dictatorships and military coups. But those hopes soon dissipated, amid reports of corruption and maladministration. To make matters worse, the former University Professor sought to prolong his stay in power by changing the country’s constitution.
That was one of the reasons cited by Doumbouya for sizing power. His National Council of the Rally for Development (CNRD) junta also cited corruption and bad governance.
Under pressure from regional and international bodies, and after heavy sanctions, the military agreed to a two-year transition plan, which was to end with presidential elections this December. But all of the conditions that need to be in place for this to be realized, seems to be behind schedule.
The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) at its last heads of state summit raised concern over this, lamenting lack of progress in the transition after one year of implementation of its timetable.
"The Commission noted that, one year after the approval of the transition timeline, no significant progress has been made in the implementation of activities,” it said in a communique issued at the end of the 64th Ordinary Session of the Heads of State.
Guinea was just one of several countries on the agenda at that summit in the Nigerian capital, Abuja in December 2023. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, who are also under military rule, were called out for lack of progress in their transitions. However, those three countries have since broken away from the bloc in protests over the sanctions.
On the transition charter the Guinean junta agreed with Ecowas are 10 key points, including holding a national population and housing census, voter registration, new constitution, and organizing a referendum, ending with presidential poll.
A review of the implementation progress by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) reveals that only the draft constitution has been completed by August 2024.
The National Institute for Statistics, which conducts census, has been reported saying it cannot complete the census before August 2025. And the census is crucial for the production of the voter register.
The junta though is insisting that all these 10 points must be completed in sequence and that all of them must be done for elections to take place.
But much of the debate is on the draft constitution, which has been rejected by most of the major opposition parties. They argue that any constitutional reform should be handled by a legitimate, democratically elected government.
One major issue about the document which was published by the National Transition Council or CNT on 29 July is a proposal to grant the junta and the CNT immunity for their actions in office. Opponents also cited issues like how to reach a decision on election date, which they say have been left ambiguous in the draft, thereby giving the junta the leverage to decide and possibly delay the elections.
The government says it is consulting with relevant players ahead of the referendum to adopt the final copy.
Most of the major political parties including Conde’s Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) and Diallo’s UFDG, have out-rightly rejected it, saying that it contains only the wishes of the military leadership.
The parties, under the FVG, have also called for independent bodies to manage both the voter registration and election administration.
To complicate matters further, discussions have recently been dominated by talks of the possibility of a military candidate on the presidential ballot. It started with a controversial religious cleric saying that democracy hasn’t brought any good for Guinea and proposing the military keep power.
Youth movements have since sprouted with calls for a Doumbouya candidacy. Football tournaments organized in the name of the junta leader serve as recruiting grounds for support for this idea.
Presidential spokesman and right-hand man of Doumbouya, Col. Amara Kamara, further fueled the speculations around his candidacy when he said in September that he was qualified in the eyes of the constitution to contest as a citizen.
Earlier in July, another junta spokesman, Ousmane Gaoual Diallo, made an even more cryptic comment on the issue, stating that a return to constitutional order doesn’t mean the end of the transition.
“These are two completely different themes. Everyone must understand that soldiers didn’t come to power to say, ‘we organize election and then we move over so someone else takes over," he said.
