Is it a Nasa falling-out or clever tactics? Raila’s future depends on it

Nasa leader Raila Odinga holds up a bible as he swears himself in as the 'people's president' on January 30, 2018 in Nairobi. Kenya is in a classic Mexican standoff, defined as a confrontation between two or more parties in which none can win. PHOTO | PATRICK MEINHARDT | AFP

What you need to know:

  • Kenyatta cannot yield to Mr Odinga’s demands for a fresh, free and credible presidential election without a ruinous collapse of his authority.

  • Mr Odinga’s problem is that his base is now more militant and intransigent than he himself ever was.

  • Jubilee’s problem is that Mr Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto’s interests are now strategically misaligned.

  • Mr Kenyatta wants a legacy, Mr Ruto wants the presidency in 2022

Kenya is in a classic Mexican standoff, defined as a confrontation between two or more parties in which none can win. Though it is not known why the other co-principals did not turn up for the ‘swearing-in’ — tactics or fallout?

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