North Korean leader Kim Jong Un speaks during the groundbreaking ceremony for the Kangdong County Hospital and General Service Center in Kangdong County, North Korea, February 6, 2025, in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.
Lee Il-gyu was serving as a North Korean diplomat in Cuba when protests erupted in 2021. People poured into the streets to protest massive power cuts and shortage of supplies.
But this was Cuba, a communist country that had endured US sanctions for six decades and built one of the best health systems in the world.
Now, as an exiled North Korean, he saw in those protests what he didn’t see in his country. In spite of being communist, Cuba had gradually opened up, allowing citizens free expressions online while addressing some of the concerns they raised.
North Korea, on the hand, has been a closed society where the internet is restricted and citizens pummeled with the ideology of the Workers’ Party.
Over the recent months though, Lee thinks events in faraway countries such as Libya, Syria and Ukraine may influence the germination of a seed for change in North Korea.
“The dictatorships of Syria and North Korea share several striking similarities. Foremost among these is their foundation on the long-term rule of a single leader,” Lee, a former Counselor of the Democratic Republic of Korea – official name of North Korea – embassy in Cuba, said during a recent workshop.
He was referring to events of December 8, 2024, when the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria fell to an offensive by rebels led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Syrian National Army group.
The offensive ended a hereditary autocracy that was started by Hafez al-Assad in 1971 following a coup, with power later being transferred Hafez’s son Bashar.
Syria and the Assad clan was close to North Korea, from which it reportedly gained ideology and military resources. There were also similarities between the two countries.
North Korea’s Kim Il Sung ruled for 49 years, from August 1945 until his death in July 1994. He was succeeded by his son Kim Jong Il who was in power for 17 years until December 201, when he died and was succeeded by his son Kim Jong Un.
On its part, Syria fell after the Arab Spring in 2011. North Koreans believe the recent political events in Syria show that even the most powerful autocracies are vulnerable to an uprising.
“Even amidst such oppressive conditions, change is happening,” Lee said.
“Today, North Koreans are no longer the compliant and subservient population they once were. A significant portion of the population believes the hereditary dictatorship has no future and recognizes the need for change. This sentiment is especially strong among North Korean youth, who remain eager and hopeful despite the risk of brutal punishments. They yearn for outside information and hold onto dreams of a better tomorrow,” Lee explained.
Largely isolated from the world, the sentiments of the youth in North Korea remain undocumented. Meanwhile, the Kim dynasty has solidly remained in power, and recently sent thousands to the warfront in Ukraine.
Lee feels the fall of Syria has raised serious concerns for Kim, who is perceived to have lost an ally. Lee says North Koreans now needs the world to show them how to break free from the dictatorship.
“By providing access to the information they so desperately seek, we can help instill in them the belief that dictatorships are not eternal and empower them with the realisation that they hold the power to drive change.
“The international community’s demands for human rights and democratic reforms in North Korea must grow louder and resonate within the country,” Lee said.
North Korea has been under UN sanctions for the last two decades for pursuing a nuclear programme. Last year, the UN Security Council ended the mandate of the sanctions committee on North Korea, after a veto from Russia which argued that the committee was pursuing interests of certain countries.
A UN panel of experts had earlier said Pyongyang had exported items required in the development of chemical weapons to Syria between 2012 and early 2017, and shipped ballistic missile components and ingredients to manufacture chemical weapons.
Moon Seong-mook, Director of the Centre for Unification Strategy at the Korea Research Institute of National Strategy, argued that the fate of North Korea will depend on how other autocracies survive public pressure for change.
In Syria, it would depend on how the transitional authority adjusts, he said.
“The Middle East stands at a pivotal juncture towards achieving peace, particularly evident in Syria, where a long-standing dictatorship of over 50 years has been dismantled, ushering in the newly formed government,” Moon said.
“The international community is observing the actions of the Syria’s opposition forces-led transitional government with apprehension,” he added referring to the US re-listing of Syria, North Korea, Iran, and Cuba, as state sponsors of terrorism in December.
“For the Syrian transitional government to gain international support and recognition, it must first make the bold decision to sever ties with North Korea, a nation long-associated with undermining the global order. By doing so, it will demonstrate a genuine commitment to freedom and peace,” Moon said.
