Raila Odinga at the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa on February12, 2025.
Handlers of Raila Odinga, Kenya's candidate in Saturday's election for chairman of the African Union Commission (AUC) who lost to Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, admit that for an 80-year-old man, the energy and vigour he brings to his work is admirable.
The defeat, adding to a string of election losses to be Kenya’s president, undoubtedly punctures his majesty but also raises fresh questions on his next political move, including whether or not he will make a sixth attempt to enter State House in 2027.
Even though as the son of Kenya’s first vice president, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, he is in many ways a child of privilege, the ODM chief was in the 1980s detained for several times by the Daniel arap Moi regime. These experiences are said to have moulded him into the battle-hardened veteran opposition leader he is today.
In his autobiography, Flames of Freedom, Mr Odinga recounts his ordeal in detention. He writes that life was "the endless sameness of the daily routine. We were constantly counted to make sure we had not escaped - count, count, count, all day long. It never stopped"
Statesman
Mr Odinga is a quintessential statesman who has been a colossus on the country's political scene for decades. Most of the current crop of politicians have passed through his hands in one way or another, with some admitting to having been mentored by him.
He's one of those credited with midwifing the 2010 Constitution, hailed as one of the most progressive in the world, a product of sweat and blood after decades of struggle under a one-party dictatorship.
After five failed attempts to become the country's leader in 1997, 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022, Mr Odinga was hoping to redeem himself with the continental job and perhaps retire with his head held high in what his supporters say would be a case of a prophet rejected at home but recognised ‘abroad’ in Addis Ababa, the seat of power of the AU-African Union. This, too, did not come to pass.
To his credit, the former prime minister has a unique quality, the ability to reinvent himself and remain relevant even after losing an election. As a result, his opponents have learned never to write him off.
There are already indications from his advisors that he'll be taking a sabbatical for a few weeks, if not months, to plot his next course of action before "offering direction" to his anxious followers, some of whom on Saturday reacted with chants of “Ruto must go”.
Indeed, the relationship with Dr Ruto, with whom he has a working arrangement in the broad-based government, is expected to be tested after the Addis Ababa vote outcome. Eyes will also be on how he steers his ODM party, whose leadership he is expected to resume after stepping down, and the Azimio coalition. Mr Odinga’s AUC candidature had split opinions with some wanting him to win and leave the local scene while others wished to have him back. At 80, and beaten once again in a high-profile contest, the possibility of retirement from active politics cannot also be ruled out.
But just like he has done before, when he was vanquished, he seems to have the uncanny ability to grow new skin and make a grand return.
"He has a way of transforming himself quickly after an upset. This has allowed him to adapt to the ever-changing political landscape to stay ahead of the game," says Tom Mboya, a political science lecturer based in Maseno.
When Mwai Kibaki kicked him out of cabinet along with others after they teamed up against the proposed constitution 20 years ago, he seized the moment, transforming the NO camp into a formidable political movement that gave Kibaki re-election headaches in 2007. In the end, he forced his way into government as prime minister in a coalition government after challenging Mr Kibaki's victory.
In the last three general elections, he cobbled together Cord, Nasa and Azimio coalitions in the fast-changing political landscape to stay relevant, sometimes even joining his opponents' governments after the elections to buy time to recoup lost energy in the campaigns.
He had a "handshake" with President Uhuru Kenyatta after losing to him in 2017, and now he's in a similar loose arrangement with President William Ruto - what they call a broad-based government that has seen him "donate" five cabinet secretaries to Kenya Kwanza's government, making him the constant opposition in the government.
Odinga is an excellent student of brinkmanship and sometimes political blackmail. Baba, as Odinga is fondly called by his fans, has been in every government since the late 1990s, in one form or another, often entering through the back door.
The deals with Mr Kenyatta and Dr Ruto have not been his first. He joined President Daniel Moi in a merger of the ruling Kanu party and his NDP, only to storm out in the run-up to the 2002 elections when he learned that his desire to get Moi's endorsement for the presidency would go nowhere. Moi later unveiled Uhuru as his preferred choice, triggering a stampede out of the ruling party. Mr Odinga would consequently team up with Mr Kibaki in the National Rainbow Coalition before the fallout ahead of the 2007 elections.
Joe Wanjui, a political confidant of Kibaki's, recalled Mr Odinga's role in the 2002 presidential campaign.
"I can personally vouch for the fact that Raila Odinga was the most energetic campaigner for Kibaki in the 2002 campaign," he wrote in his book, My Native Roots.
Some observers say Odinga's towering stature may have worked to his disadvantage at the AUC, with some member states preferring the less aggressive candidate from Djibouti.
Railamania vs Railaphobia
In areas like Central Kenya, many political careers have been born and sustained on the basis of hatred for him, but in his bastion of Nyanza, association with him alone would win you an elective seat, even posthumously.
An Odinga endorsement there is as good as a winning vote. And in Mount Kenya, over the years, being a fierce Mr Odinga opponent gives one a leg up on opponents seen as sympathetic to him. The measure of a true community defender is the level of hatred for Mr Odinga. As such, his loss was greeted with celebrations there.
To his detractors, he's a gruff, unelectable politician, but to his supporters and admirers, he's a master tactician bold enough to go where cowards would not.
It's documented that it was not his father's choice to inherit his mantle as Luo Nyanza kingpin, but staged a palace coup to overthrow perceived frontrunners like James Aggrey Orengo after his father’s death in January 1994.
Prof Makau Mutua, a member of Odinga's campaign secretariat and a close adviser, said in an earlier interview with Nation Africa that the AUC chairmanship required a Pan-Africanist, "a true champion of Africa".
"That is why Mr Odinga's truly national outlook in Kenya is an essential early qualification for the job. How can you be a Pan-Africanist if you're not a nationalist at home?"
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, a man not known to have kind words for Mr Odinga, threw his weight behind him on Valentine’s Day saying, "Odinga is undoubtedly the best choice for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission. Africa deserves the best."
He said Odinga's leadership would have promoted unity across Africa's regions, leveraging his worldview and unwavering commitment to the African people.
Whether or not this last-minute message could be a signal, no matter how weak, that Mr Gachagua had softened his view on Mr Odinga is one of the things many will be watching closely — just like the veteran opposition leader’s relationship with Dr Ruto. On Saturday night in Addis, the two left in the same vehicle from the African Union headquarters, just as they had arrived in the morning, It is a sense of camaraderie now under the microscope as the focus returns to the local political scene.
