Virus killing the elderly more than any other group, survey reveals

As Kenya’s Covid-19 deaths cross the 5,000 mark today, analysis of the mounting toll shows the virus being spread mainly by young people is killing the old in droves.

As per the Ministry of Health (MoH) statistics, most deaths are occurring in those who are 60 and above, with cumulative figures from official data reported on Wednesday showing that 4,949 people had died.

From the numbers, 2,838 out of 4,939 Covid-19 deaths have occurred in those aged 60 and above, representing more than 57 per cent of all deaths. This age group comprises less than a quarter of the caseload.

Most vulnerable

The death toll in 50-to-59-year-olds is 942, which is 19 per cent of all cases while those in their 30s and 40s who are usually the majority of new infections only account for 940 — 19 per cent of all deaths. This means that the elderly, who are the most vulnerable, have died the most from the coronavirus followed by those in their 50s, with the mortality rate risk decreasing with age.

Dr Ahmed Kalebi, a consultant pathologist based in Nairobi, says the reason the elderly have a higher fatality than the rest of the population is that they tend to have weaker immunity and are less likely to recover from acute illness, especially the oxygen deprivation.

Also, many of them tend to have co-morbidities like diabetes, hypertension and kidney ailments that further compound their susceptibility to the disease’s damaging effect on the body.

“Looking at the seven-day rolling average of daily new reported deaths, the curve suggests a spike in deaths in the past couple of months, but actually, those might represent deaths from the third wave in March and April,” he said.

Fourth wave

He explained that, with the peaking of the fourth wave in August, hospitalisations and deaths also increased and the curve for both tend to lag behind the curve for new cases by about two to three weeks.

MoH told the Nation that the government does not intentionally release deaths per county data for a reason.

“What that data tends to do is segregate certain counties, thereby branding them as ‘death zones’,” a high ranking official at the ministry disclosed.

The data further shows that younger people who have no underlying medical conditions are surviving the pandemic even if they have a high viral load during infection.

The pathologist explained that this is because their body is able to better fight off the infection before it causes damaging disease.

“Children are, on the other hand, less susceptible to infection and less likely to have mortality, but when the virus catches up with the very young ones who are vulnerable to acute illnesses, they are likely to succumb if not attended to on time,” he warned.

‘Super spreaders’

Experts are of the view that viral concentration tend to increase by age, but it has been shown from many peer reviewed studies that ‘super spreaders’ are usually over 25 years of age, while those under 25 are ‘low spreaders’.

A super spreader is a person who, when infected, has a persistently high viral load because of very high multiplication of the virus in their nose and airways for a longer than usual period, and then the person expels the virus in the air when they exhale, and transmitting it to other people around them.

The none super spreaders tend to have a low viral load and short duration of active viral replication for two to five days, compared to super spreaders who can be actively infectious for one to two weeks.