Shortage of sample kits derails testing
A shortage of Covid-19 specimen collection kits has led to fewer tests that could prompt misleading interpretation that the number of new infections is falling.
A senior Ministry of Health official told the Nation yesterday that the country is not carrying out enough tests because of a stock out of the kits, especially in counties outside Nairobi.
The implication is that the average daily tests are 3, 000 less than the number deemed sufficient to project the infection rate.
“The shortage is especially felt in the counties but there is also the fact that some laboratories have resumed their routine research work,” the official, who requested anonymity, told the Nation.
“About 90 per cent of the tests announced are from private hospitals and laboratories.”
Positivity rate
The ministry has conducted 39,112 tests in the past seven days, translating to about 5,500 a day.
According to the ministry, the highest number of tests in the same period has been 8,230, with the lowest being 2,283. The staggering tests affect the confirmed positivity rate.
As a result, it is difficult to tell if the country is flattening the curve or witnessing a rise in new infections.
The official added that the country should conduct 6,000 to 10,000 tests a day for a minimum of two weeks to get clear picture of the coronavirus situation.
Contacted, Health Acting Director-General Patrick Amoth said this is not the case. He said the positivity rate in Kenya is less than 10 per cent, but fluctuates daily.
“The rate is not just about the number of tests. It is looked at in terms of fatalities, admissions, critical cases and other factors. The numbers say we are doing well,” Dr Amoth said.
He, however, added that to get an accurate Covid-19 positivity rate, the country needs to carry out at least 7,000 tests daily “which the Ministry of Health has achieve in the recent past”.
Actual testing
Pathologists Lancet Kenya chief executive Kenya Ahmed Kalebi said new cases have been falling in terms of absolute numbers and the positivity rate while actual testing has remained relatively high.
“We had under seven positivity rate for the first time in more than two months yesterday. The drop is real. We are witnessing it even in our laboratories despite getting many hospital referrals,” Dr Kalebi said yesterday.
“The trend may continue. However, as Covid-19 positive cases drop, so will the demand for tests. We expect to see fewer tests done than at peak.”
He added that the number of coronavirus deaths and hospitalisation have also dropped.
“We are truly past the second wave. However, a third wave is inevitable in January and February once people travel and interact then resume work and school.”
There are multiple ways of calculating the positivity rate for Covid-19, with some institutions measuring it by taking the number of all positive tests and dividing it by the number of total tests then multiplying it by 100 to get a percentage.
If the positive rate in an area is more than 50 per cent, doctors would have to do only two tests to find one case.
If an area’s rate is below one, you would have to do more than 100 coronavirus tests to find an infection.
