Rapid Support Forces and the William Ruto Sudan war link

The initial date was Monday but the event was marred by confusion, ending with a deferment to Friday.

The RSF leadership converged on Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC) on Tuesday, with Gen Daglo’s brother and deputy Abdul Rahim Hamdan Daglo announcing that the ceremony would conclude with the signing of an agreement forming a parallel government.

The planned administration, framed as the “Political Charter for the Government of Peace and Unity,” is being positioned as an effort to “restore the legitimate government” that was overthrown by remnants and militias of the Islamic movement”.

Kenya’s ties to the RSF go deeper. In 2023, Dr Ruto arrived in Juba aboard the presidential jet alongside RSF Deputy Commander Abdulrahim Daglo, who together with his brother, is under sanctions by the United States for fuelling the war in Sudan.

The US State Department says the sanctions were imposed due to Gen Daglo’s role in atrocities against the Sudanese people.

The department also sanctioned seven RSF-owned companies in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and one person for their roles in procuring arms for RSF.

In January last year, Kenya rolled out a red carpet welcome for Hemedti at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport’s presidential pavilion, complete with traditional dancers.

The grand treatment was noticeably more extravagant than what military leader Abdel Fatah al-Burhan had received, fuelling tensions between the two governments. By using Nairobi as a launchpad, the RSF is attempting to position itself as a credible political force.

At the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia last week, Kenya pledged $1 million (Sh130 million) in humanitarian assistance for the Sudanese people.

Gen Burhan, who is leading the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) that is fighting RSF, rejected the possible formation of a government on Monday.

Gen Burhan is the leader of the junta that worked with Daglo’s forces to execute a coup in 2021.

Yesterday’s event and the planned Friday ceremony brought a sense of déjà vu to observers of Kenya’s mediation efforts in the region.

In December 2023, the political wing of the M23 – Congo River Alliance – was launched in Nairobi, amid protests by Democratic Republic of Congo authorities.

DR Congo officials said Kenya, which is leading the Nairobi Peace Process, had allowed rebels to launch a bid against the government in Kinshasa from its soil.

In response to the protests, President William Ruto said any move against the group led by former DR Congo Electoral Commission chief Corneille Nangaa, would have come off undemocratic.

“Kenya is a democracy. We cannot arrest anybody who issues a statement. We do not arrest people for making statements, we arrest criminals,” he said.

Kinshasa recalled its ambassador in Nairobi and summoned Kenya’s Head of Mission to explain the events in Nairobi.

From that time, President Felix Tshisekedi has never accepted the credentials of Kenya’s ambassador nominee Shem Amadi, who was appointed in 2024.

Read: Kenya reaffirms USD 1m pledge to Sudan as Ruto pushes for dialogue to avert crisis

Kinshasa has shown mistrust of President Ruto in seeking a solution to the crisis in the east of that vast country, even as the new chairperson of the East African Community (EAC), of which the DR Congo is a member.

President Tshisekedi views Dr Ruto as leaning towards Rwanda, a country accused by the United Nations, the West and humanitarian agencies of backing M23. Kigali denies the claims.

In July last year, the Congolese leader accused Dr Ruto of “mismanaging” the Nairobi Peace Process. President Tshisekedi said Dr Ruto was taking Rwanda’s side in the conflict and talks.

“There was the Nairobi Process driven by (former president) Uhuru Kenyatta which, unfortunately, was subsequently managed by the new President William Ruto. He managed it badly. The process is almost dead, apart from the fact that the designated facilitator, Uhuru Kenyatta, has stayed on. President Ruto has taken up Rwanda’s cause,” the DR Congo leader said.

The sentiments are shared by the SAF and Gen Burhan.

When Gen Burhan and Gen Hemeti went to war in 2023, President Ruto offered to mediate, riding on the regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (Igad) regional bloc.

From the start, Gen Burhan’s side was not happy with the idea. Indeed, after an Igad meeting in Djibouti, the junta chief protested Dr Ruto’s insistence that a conversation he had had with Hemeti ended with a promise of a ceasefire.

Read: Kenya's President Ruto tells Sudan generals to 'stop the nonsense'

Gen Burhan’s side has no confidence in the Kenyan leader’s arbitration because Gen Hemedti and President Ruto have a history of working together.

When the RSF leader was hosted by President Ruto in Nairobi, Sudan recalled its ambassador in Kenya “in protest of the official reception organised for the leader of the rebel militia”.

Dr Ruto has teamed up with the UAE, Ethiopia, the AU, Igad and other players for a High-Level Humanitarian Conference to pledge assistance for the troubled country.

They pledged more than $200 million, including Kenya’s $1 million.

The event in Addis Ababa on the sidelines of the AU Summit brought together regional and international actors to mobilise resources for Sudan and address the devastating humanitarian crisis caused by the war.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres also took part in the conference.

The gains this might have made could be eroded with the turn of events in Nairobi, coming just days after the RSF launched a three-day attack in White Nile state, where more than 400 people were killed, according to a lawyers’ lobby that monitors the war in Sudan.

The monitor says RSF fighters attacked unarmed civilians in al-Kadaris and al-Khalwat, in rural el-Geteina.

Read: President Ruto reaffirms Kenya’s commitment to resolving conflicts in Africa

Hemedti did not attend yesterday’s event at KICC, but sources close to the leader told the Daily Nation that they had worked out a new power-sharing pact between the group and its allies.

The structure to be launched on Friday will comprise the leader, six council members and a cabinet of 17 ministers.

Read: President Ruto’s rejection in Sudan: Is Kenya losing its diplomatic power?

Dr Ibrahim Mukhayer, a representative of RSF, said yesterday’s event was important because it “signals our commitment to bring peace after years of war that has claimed thousands of lives”.

“The presence of RSF here means we are committed to peace. This is a great step towards ensuring we bring an end to the conflict in Sudan,” Dr Mukhayer said.

Said another representative: “I believe this is the Last Supper, the final nail in the coffin of ‘56. A new Sudan is being born. We will build it, the Sudan we dream of.”

He added that it is just a matter of time before a new Sudan would be built.

“It will be a homeland of citizenship and humanity, a nation for all, a land of freedom and the rule of law. The revolution continues and the traitor must leave,” the representative told the Daily Nation.

“We will build the Sudan we dream of – a proud nation, a strong nation, a land of good and democracy.”

“56” refers to the state established in 1956 – the post-independence Sudan.

Mr Khalid Mohey Eldeen, a Sudanese writer, leads a movement that calls for opposing the “56 state,” arguing that it is the root cause of Sudan’s problems.

In a statement Monday, the SAF said its forces “advanced along the Kober Bridge axis, took control of Universal Hospital in Kober district and cleared the area of RSF militia, which had occupied infrastructure and used it as military bases.”

Relations between Nairobi and Khartoum had begun to thaw in recent months, despite President Ruto's perceived closeness to Hemedti.

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