The 15 counties that will decide entry to State House in 2022 polls

A select list of 15 vote-rich counties could hold the key to next year’s presidential contest between Deputy President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga, making them hotbeds of political campaigns in the countdown to the August 2022 polls.

An analysis of the two most recent presidential elections shows the 15 counties made all the difference between the ruling Jubilee Party’s double wins and the opposition coalition’s losses, indicating their huge bearing on next year’s polls if past voting patterns are replicated.

In 2013, Uhuru Kenyatta beat his main competitor to the presidency, Mr Odinga, by a thin margin of 800,000 votes, and only 8,000 ballots separated the two from going into a run-off based on the electoral rules that require a wining presidential candidate to secure above 50 per cent of total votes cast.

Campaign harder

In the 2017 General Election, however, President Kenyatta widened the gap between him and Mr Odinga by 1.5 million votes, helped in a big part by the 15 counties which collectively gave Jubilee Party an additional 1.1 million votes. 

In seven of the counties —  Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Marsabit, Kisii and Nyamira —  Mr Odinga’s votes shrank by over 80,000 in 2017 compared to the 2013 tally.

In contrast, President Kenyatta gained nearly 500,000 extra votes in these seven counties in 2017, underlining the need for Mr Odinga to campaign harder in these regions to win the hearts of Jubilee voters.

The other eight counties that helped Mr Kenyatta to extend his lead over his close rival were Kiambu, Nakuru, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Turkana, Uasin Gishu and Laikipia. 

DP Ruto and Mr Odinga have camped in the key counties in recent weeks as political campaigns gather momentum, indicating an analytical approach to the rivals’ vote-hunting strategies.

Although the Supreme Court nullified results of the August 2017 election, largely citing process flaws, the figures are the only reliable numbers to compare voting patterns with 2013, given that Mr Odinga boycotted the repeat October 2017 presidential poll.

The analysis is also based on the assumption that the DP and Mr Odinga will eventually be on the ballot.

Crucially, these 15 counties collectively account for a third of the projected new voters that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) targets to register by next year’s General Election.

They are home to an estimated 2.8 million of the potential 9.2 million new voters that the electoral agency seeks to list.

What this means is that the DP, who intends to vie for the presidency on a United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party ticket, must fight to retain the high voter turnout in these regions if he were to replicate President Kenyatta’s feat in the last two presidential votes.

Voting patterns

Failure to do this would narrow the gap between him and Mr Odinga, considering past voting trends show ethnic lines heavily influence voting patterns.

The Ruto “hustler nation” campaign slogan has emphasised transcending the tribal voting patterns, which could help the him reduce reliance on the nearly 100 per cent voter turnout in Rift Valley and Central Kenya that helped Jubilee to power in 2013 and 2017.

“Don't vote along ethnic lines but emulate me because I supported Raila Odinga in 2007 and President Kenyatta in 2013, 2017,” the DP said at a political rally in Nyamira over the weekend.

The DP’s public fallout with President Kenyatta and the fact that the voter turnout in Mt Kenya region is expected to dip given the absence of a presidential candidate from the region complicates the maths for the country’s second-in-command.

Mr Odinga has lately pitched camp in these counties, with the knowledge that securing a slice of the votes would be an immense gain to his presidential ambition.

He began a tour of Mt Kenya with a road trip from Nairobi to Laikipia, addressing eight campaign stops as he traversed Nyeri, Muranga, Kirinyaga and Kiambu counties.

He was hosted by the region’s business leaders in a forum organised by the Mt Kenya Foundation.

Thereafter, the ODM leader headed to Turkana and hosted delegates from the Rift Valley at Eldoret in Uasin Gishu,  where he addressed a huge crowd in DP Ruto’s political backyard.

Mr Odinga then had a week-long tour of Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi counties, and last Thursday took his campaigns to the populous Kiambu.

On Friday, the ODM party leader set off for Nyamira and Kisii counties, regions that flipped in the 2017 presidential elections to support Jubilee.

The DP, on the other hand, has pitched camp in the Mt Kenya region for most of Jubilee’s second term since 2018, drawing the ire of his boss President Kenyatta, who accuses him of launching premature campaigns that have undermined his administration.

Yesterday, the DP went back to Kiambu, days after Mr Odinga had toured the county.

Defied the President

A group of Mt Kenya Jubilee MPs, including Alice Wahome, Ndindi Nyoro, Rigathe Gachagua, Irungu Kangata and Purity Ngirici have defied the President to back the DP’s presidential bid.

The DP has also had numerous campaign stops in Kisii and Nyamira where his point men include Kisii Deputy Governor Joash Maang’i, South Mugirango MP Silvania Osoro and UDA official Omingo Magara. 

Going by their past performances in presidential elections, One Kenya Alliance leaders Musalia Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka have been unable to secure support outside their home turfs.

Mr Musyoka hopes to lock in the Ukambani vote that is estimated to be nearly two million votes by next year, barring major hits from his political rivals including Kitui, Makueni and Machakos governors Charity Ngilu, Kivutha Kibwana and Alfred Mutua, respectively, who are seen to lean more towards Mr Odinga.

In the past two elections, Mr Odinga has benefited from the voting bloc as he has run on a joint ticket with Mr Musyoka, although Mr Kenyatta managed to garner significant votes too.

A recent ward by-election in Makueni, in which an Independent candidate trounced the wiper candidate despite campaigning by the three OKA leaders, — Mr Musyoka, Mr Mudavadi and Mr Moses Wetang’ula — dented the three leader’s political credentials.