Ruto, Raila battle for foreign donors, influence in race for 2022

The appointment of former Foreign Affairs Chief Administrative Secretary Ababu Namwamba to head Deputy President William Ruto’s international relations at the presidential campaign secretariat has exposed the role foreign nations and interests will play in President Uhuru Kenyatta’s succession.

The interest also includes the growing diaspora population, whose remittances hit Sh418 billion in 2021.

The DP and his main challenger in the race, Azimio la Umoja boss Raila Odinga, have been busy building their international networks and images, which, analysts say, could help their campaigns in terms of funding.

On Tuesday, Dr Ruto met the European Business Council Kenya and explained to them what his government will do to create a conducive environment for doing business if he is elected to succeed Mr Kenyatta.

“The recalibration of our business environment will democratise opportunities to actualise our country’s huge entrepreneurship potential. Kenya Kwanza will establish a just, supportive and affirmative regulatory regime that will facilitate businesses to comply and thrive,” said Dr Ruto.

The meeting, he said, was a ‘Meet the Candidates Platform’ at the Village Market, with members drawn from 17 European countries.

Met Indian PM

On Saturday, the former Prime Minister held talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi during his week-long visit to the country, in what is seen as enhancing his global image.

The Nation had established that the ODM leader had held a series of meetings with Indian authorities to discuss implementation of his social welfare protection programme, which borrows widely from the Indian framework, in case he is elected president.

Mr Namwamba, citing Kenya’s seat at the United Nations Security Council, the fact that it is home to the United Nations Office in Nairobi, the United Nations Environment Programme and the UN-Habitat, said the DP was focused on continuing relations with the world.

“Kenyans can rest assured that a Ruto administration will execute a progressive foreign policy, with unprecedented creativity and robustness. The William Ruto Presidential Campaign has, accordingly, integrated a cutting edge foreign policy that advances Kenya's strategic national interests, reinforces our country's anchor state status in the region, advances pan-Africanism and shared prosperity and supports a rule-based international system,” Mr Namwamba said.

Transition election

Experts of international relations are of the opinion that since it is a transition election, it is important for contenders in the State House race to sell themselves to the international community.

Dr Hassan Khannenje, the director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies in Nairobi, argues that the beehive of activities being witnessed between presidential aspirants and diplomatic corps is a measure to build confidence and image.

“Interaction with the international community is important in building confidence that those countries’ investments in Kenya are going to remain safe and secure and when the international community does not have confidence in a candidate, it might be challenging once they assume power in terms of working relationship,” Dr Khannenje said.

Often, he argued, presidential candidates have to assure foreign countries that their administration will have good relations with them and that their investments will be safe.

According to Prof Masibo Lumala of Moi University, a communication and international relations expert, since the superpower countries have a lot of interests in Kenya, their actions are likely to influence the direction the election will take, hence their close working relationship with presidential candidates.

“The superpowers and developed nations have a lot of interests in Kenya, therefore, Kenya’s election is an issue to them. They may say that ‘Kenya is an independent country, we shall not interfere in its affairs’, but they will still have a say in who is likely to ascend to power because they have dossiers on some of these candidates,” Prof Lumala explained.

Ruto DRC utterances

Citing the incident where the DP on Tuesday drew the ire of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) when he promised that if he is elected president, his administration will enhance investment in livestock keeping for produce to be sold as far as the DRC, because the country does not have cows and has to import milk, Prof Lumala said such utterances had the potential of affecting trade.

Furious Congolese MPs quickly reacted to the Ruto comments, and asked him to withdraw them.

“As a presidential candidate, you do not make pronouncements that are likely to injure the relationship between Kenya and any other nation, or even lead to a situation where we have trade loss. If you compare the Deputy President and Mr Odinga, obviously Mr Odinga has the upper hand in terms of foreign policy and international relations because of his longstanding standing in the international community,” Prof Lumala said.

While Mr Odinga boasts of having a number of African heads of state as his cronies, the DP has been close to Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni.

The ODM boss recently shared photos of himself and leaders like Félix Tshisekedi of the DRC and Malawian President Lazarus Chakwera, among others, during the opening ceremony of the 35th ordinary session of the African Union (AU) Assembly in Addis Ababa.

At the same time, some of Mr Odinga’s close Nigerian friends are former President Olusegun Obasanjo and Enugu State Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuany.

Late last year, Dr Ruto was barred from travelling to Uganda at Nairobi’s Wilson Airport, while his allies, Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi and his Kiharu counterpart Ndindi Nyoro, businessmen David Lagat, Harun Aydin, David Muge, Simon Mogun and Nelson Kisalit were cleared to fly.

The presence of the Turkish Mr Aydin in DP Ruto’s delegation to Uganda last year also gave the impression that he is busy building his global network.

Relationship with Museveni

Dr Ruto’s relationship with Mr Museveni, which had started raising eyebrows, forced the latter to late last month announce that his government would not take sides in the August polls.

"Elections in Kenya or any other African country are a matter for the people of that country. We never take sides in the internal affairs of other countries. So, we have no side in the Kenya elections," Mr Museveni is quoted to have stated.

In September 2020, Dr Ruto led about 40 Jubilee MPs to the Olngesher Lool Ilmerishie ceremony of the Matapato clan in Maparasha Olchoro Oibor in Kajiado Central hosted by 13 European Union (EU) ambassadors at the residence of Mr Simon Mordue, the EU ambassador to Kenya.

“Delighted to have hosted Deputy President @WilliamsRuto at a meeting today of EU ambassadors. Enjoyed the lively and open exchange of views on the Big4Agenda, and Kenya’s development and political future,” tweeted Mr Mordue.

On his trip to Dubai in 2020, Dr Ruto met former Nigerian vice-president Atiku Abubakar, who is among the richest people in Africa. Mr Abubakar also harbours presidential ambitions.

Prof Ken Oluoch, the head of the Political Science department at Moi University and a scholar of international relations, said foreign relations is crucial in determining the country’s rate of growth and development.

“The foreign relations of a developing country such as Kenya is crucial in determining its rate of growth and development as well as its stability. Who our friends are in the international arena is critical … We have to interact with other nations for mutual benefit. Furthermore, Kenya's national interests would determine our foreign relations. Leading presidential candidates such as Raila and Ruto are pretty much aware of these facts,” explained Prof Oluoch.

He further argued that the contenders are out to meet the envoys of different countries to start to seek recognition of their administrations even before elections take place.

“There is also the concept of recognition of the government by members of the international community. This is what a head of the government would always want to maintain,” said Prof Oluoch.

Serious interest in Kenya

United States International University’s Prof Macharia Munene said: “Foreign countries have serious interest in Kenya and one way of securing those interests is to know decision makers. Elected officials are critical. For their part, candidates want funding and other forms of support that foreigners can provide. If the foreign policy of a candidate can attract investments that voters can see, then it will have an impact.”

On Monday, the government assured its development partners of a smooth transition after the August 9 elections, even as it raised concerns over blatant abuse of the internet ahead of the polls.

Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, who chairs the National Development Implementation and Communication Committee (NDICC), said there were elaborate plans in place to ensure the relevant instruments of power will be handed over peacefully to the next government.

“We have given assurance to our partners that we are ready to facilitate the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to conduct elections. We will do our part to ensure the country remains peaceful,” Dr Matiang’i said.

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