Reality check for Big Four as dust settles on hotly contested mini polls
Party honchos yesterday retreated for a post-mortem of the just-concluded by-elections in what promises to reshape their strategies in conformity with the message sent by the electorate.
The outcome of the hotly contested mini polls means different things to Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga, Jubilee chief President Uhuru Kenyatta and his estranged deputy William Ruto, Amani National Congress (ANC) boss Musalia Mudavadi, Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka and Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula of Ford Kenya.
Mr Odinga is said to be re-evaluating ways of keeping the larger Western vote bloc in his corner against a resurgent Mr Mudavadi, who is seeking to unite the region as he takes a stab at the country’s presidency next year.
This week, Mr Odinga has been on a whirlwind tour of the Coast, a restless base that is threatening to drop out of his camp ahead of the General Election. The Coast camp is led by Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi.
That he could not wrest the Matungu parliamentary seat from ANC has served to reinforce the perception that Mr Odinga’s fortunes are dwindling in Western Kenya too.
Presidential ambitions
Western and Coast have hoisted the ODM man’s political career for decades and any signs of Mr Odinga losing his grip on the two regions may not auger well with his presidential ambitions, if he chooses to run next year.
It would be his fifth bid for the presidency, the others being 1997, 2007, 2013 and 2017.
For Mr Mudavadi, who managed to ringfence his home turf from “invaders”, opinion is divided as to whether this was a win all, given that his party held the seat before the by-election occasioned by the death of Justus Murunga late last year.
To some, it is a victory since Murunga was leaning towards Dr William Ruto’s Tangatanga outfit that fronted Mr Alex Lanya on a United Democratic Alliance ticket.
Like they say, politics is first local, so Mr Mudavadi needed to project himself as a man in charge of his backyard before going to hunt for votes elsewhere.
The Matungu victory gives Mr Mudavadi a headstart, much as it complicates the equation in the alliances comprising Kanu chairman and Baringo Senator Gideon Moi, Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Musyoka, as each of them stakes a claim to the presidential baton more than ever before.
“Even though the result is not what we had aimed for, coming a very strong second with close to 11,000 votes against 14,000 combined efforts of ANC, Ford-K, Kanu and Wiper parties confirms that ODM remains the Party to beat nationally,” ODM Executive Director Oduor Ong’wen yesterday.
“The local campaign team led by Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, who is our deputy party leader, did us proud.”
The outcome, we gathered, has sent ODM top brass into introspection.
Exposed
They not only wanted to win in Matungu to prove to Mr Mudavadi that Mr Odinga does not need to go through him to get support in Western like he has done in the past, but were also out to use the by-election to elevate the governor to the high table where he was supposed to checkmate the ANC leader.
It appears the plan has come to a cropper.
However, ODM insiders dismissed as untrue insinuation that the election outcome left them exposed.
“How do you lose a seat you never had in the first place?” ODM Director of Elections and National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohamed asked yesterday.
“It would be unfair to say we lost. In Matungu, they (ANC) retained their seat even though it was a narrow escape. We almost took it.”
That Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala led a successful charge against Governor Oparanya may well mean the county boss is already lame-duck or there could be other dynamics that informed the Matungu poll outcome.
Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula, who together with Mr Musyoka and the Baringo senator have formed an informal coalition dubbed One Kenya Movement, now believe the favourable outcomes in Matungu and Kabuchai are a pointer to better things ahead.
According to Mr Wetang’ula, the ANC and Ford-K wins have has sent a warning to their political adversaries in Western Kenya.
He said the region has taken one path and it would never be influenced by “outsiders” on how to vote.
“The two victories have taught us a lesson that the Mulembe Nation cannot be merchandised for political games and our journey for united as 2022 draws closer is irreversible,” Senator Wetang’ula told the Saturday Nation .
“This by-election had a direct bearing on my stand among my colleagues in this country on the level I operate. If I could have lost it in my own home, certainly, it would have a clout on my political career.”
In Kabuchai, which had attracted eight aspirants, both ODM and ANC did not field candidates and the battle remained between Dr Ruto’s man Mr Evans Kakai and Ford Kenya’s Mr Kalasinga. Mr Kalasinga enjoyed the support of Mr Wetang’ula, Mr Mudavadi, Mr Musyoka and Mr Moi.
The Senator asked the lawmakers allied to the second-in-command and Ford Kenya rebels not to support leaders from without the region noting that the happenings of Thursday were a clear indication that the residents were tired of being influenced by those from other regions.
“The Mulembe Nation has spoken loudly that they are united behind Mudavadi and Wetang’ula’s leadership,” said Kiminini MP Chris Wamalwa.
The Kabuchai by-election was said to have a direct impact on the future of Ford Kenya and if the party had lost it, it would have been a major political blow.
Frustrated with playing second fiddle in perpetuity, leaders from Western Kenya have been mulling ways of securing a seat at the high table ahead of the 2022 polls without a breakthrough and they now believe that the March 4th polls will give them an opportunity to work as a block
The bid by Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula to forge a united front to solidify the Western Kenya bloc appears to have unsettled the DP’s troops on the ground.
Additional reporting By Eric Matara, Benson Amadala, Ruth Mbula and Pius Maundu.
